Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Valentova's superior overall win rate, H2H dominance, and strong first-set conversion give her a clear edge in this Bo3 hard-court match.
- Valentova leads H2H 1-0, winning 7-5 6-1 on clay in 2024 with 75% break point conversion.
- Valentova's career win rate is 73.9% vs Costoulas' 60.3%, with a 94% first-set win conversion.
- Valentova has a 68% deciding set win rate, while Costoulas has 55%.
- Valentova's return points won is 49% vs Costoulas' 46%, indicating a return edge.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTereza ValentovaEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Recent match data shows both players frequently exceed 19.5 total games, and their balanced stats point to a competitive match with at least 20 games.
- Valentova's last 5 matches averaged 20.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 19.5.
- Costoulas' last 5 completed matches averaged 20.2 games, with 4 of 5 over 19.5.
- Both players have similar serve/return stats, suggesting competitive games and potential for extended sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 19.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set game totals for both players exceed 8.5, and the H2H first set was competitive, supporting an over 8.5 games in set 1.
- Valentova's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games.
- Costoulas' last 5 first sets averaged 9.2 games.
- The H2H first set was 7-5, totaling 12 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Valentova's superior return game and positive game differential in wins give her a slight edge to cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Valentova's average game differential in wins over the last 15 matches is +5.2.
- Costoulas' average game differential in losses is -4.8.
- Valentova's return points won (49%) suggests she can break serve more often than Costoulas (46%).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTereza Valentova -3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Valentova's high first-set win conversion and Costoulas' recent slow starts make Valentova likely to take the opening set.
- Valentova converts 94% of first-set wins into match wins, showing she starts strong.
- Costoulas has lost the first set in 6 of her last 10 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents.
- Valentova's first-serve win rate is 64.8%, slightly above Costoulas' 64.7%, but her return game is stronger.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTereza ValentovaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Valentova's straight-set H2H win and Costoulas' tendency to lose in straight sets against lower-ranked opponents support a 2-0 victory for Valentova.
- Valentova won the only H2H in straight sets (7-5 6-1).
- Costoulas has lost in straight sets in 5 of her last 10 matches, including to players ranked outside the top 150.
- Valentova's first-set win conversion is 94%, and she often closes matches efficiently.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonTereza Valentova 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Given Valentova's strong first-set record and Costoulas' frequent straight-set losses, the match is likely to end in two sets.
- Valentova's 94% first-set win conversion often leads to straight-set wins.
- Costoulas has lost in straight sets in 5 of her last 10 matches.
- The H2H match ended in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Tereza Valentova #54Czechia2Sofia Costoulas #156Belgium0

Player Profiles

Tereza Valentova

Sofia Costoulas

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 19.5

Tereza Valentova

Tereza Valentova

Under 2.5

Tereza Valentova 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Tereza Valentova

Sofia Costoulas