SwitzerlandATP GstaadFinished

Predictions graded

Pedro Martinez Portero #134Spain0Yannick Hanfmann #56Germany2

Sets 6-7 · 1-6Tue 14 Jul 2026, 08:52 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions6–186%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYannick Hanfmann · 78 places

Pedro Martinez Portero

Spain

Career-high No. 36 came on 2025-02-24. ATP bio lists clay as his favourite surface, and by July 2026 he was back at No. 134 after a season that included Roland Garros qualifying and a Wimbledon qualifying exit.

Current ranking: #134
Peak ranking: #36 · 2025
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Yannick Hanfmann

Germany

Career-high No. 45 came on 2023-07-03. ATP bio says he enjoys playing on all surfaces, and 2026 included a Santiago final in March plus his 100th ATP-level win at Halle in June.

Current ranking: #56
Peak ranking: #45 · 2023
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: All surfaces
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 07:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Yannick Hanfmann holds a clear advantage over Pedro Martinez Portero in Gstaad, backed by a dominant 3-1 H2H record, superior serve stats, and better recent form on clay.

The best betting angles are Hanfmann to win 2-0 at 2.00 and over 7.5 total aces at 1.85, while avoiding the over 21.5 games and -3.5 handicap markets due to historical trends and narrow margins.

Context

Hanfmann's last 5 matches include wins over Mpetshi Perricard (rank 83) and Fonseca (27), and losses to Khachanov (22) and Zverev (3).
- Martinez's last 5 matches include losses to Kasnikowski (284) and Virtanen (140), with wins only over players ranked 653 and 584.
- Hanfmann reached Wimbledon 2R in 2026; Martinez exited Wimbledon qualifying Q1.
Hanfmann leads H2H 3-1, winning the last two in straight sets (2024, 2023).
- In H2H, Hanfmann has 20 aces to Martinez's 6, and a 68% first-serve win rate vs. Martinez's 60%.
- Martinez's only H2H win came in 2022 on clay, but Hanfmann has since won both clay meetings.
Martinez's 2026 serve stats: 65% first-serve points won, 48.4% second-serve points won.
- Hanfmann's return points won in H2H is 46%, well above his career average of 39%.
- Martinez's double-fault rate is 5.2%, and he hit 19 double faults in 4 H2H matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yannick Hanfmann

1.38fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Hanfmann's superior serve, better recent opposition quality, and dominant H2H edge on clay give him a clear advantage.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Yannick Hanfmann

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Hanfmann's strong serving and historical first-set dominance in H2H suggest he'll start fast.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Yannick Hanfmann 2-0

2.00fair 1.82

BetBugs 45% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

Hanfmann's straight-set H2H wins and Martinez's frequent straight-set losses on clay support a 2-0 outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Hanfmann's superior serve, better recent opposition quality, and dominant H2H edge on clay give him a clear advantage.
- Hanfmann leads H2H 3-1, winning last two meetings in straight sets (2024, 2023).
- Hanfmann's 2026 clay record: 10-7, including wins over top-30 players; Martinez: 12-16 on clay this year.
- Hanfmann's serve stats: 70.7% first-serve points won, 53% second-serve; Martinez: 65% and 48.4%.
- Hanfmann's recent form: 7-8 in last 15, but faced stronger opponents (avg rank ~50); Martinez: 5-10 vs weaker field.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYannick HanfmannEstimated chance65%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths and solid serving stats point to a match exceeding 21.5 games, though H2H history is shorter.
- Martinez's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games; Hanfmann's averaged 23.4.
- Both players have high break-point save rates (Martinez 58.3%, Hanfmann 61.2%), suggesting fewer breaks.
- H2H matches averaged 19.5 games, but recent form indicates longer matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Hanfmann's strong serving and historical first-set dominance in H2H suggest he'll start fast.
- Hanfmann won first set in 3 of last 4 H2H matches.
- Hanfmann's first-set win rate in 2026: 60% (9/15); Martinez: 40% (6/15).
- Hanfmann's first-serve points won (70.7%) should pressure Martinez's weaker return game (42% return points won).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYannick HanfmannEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Hanfmann's high ace rate and historical ace count in H2H should push total aces over 7.5.
- Hanfmann averages 7.2% ace rate; Martinez 2.2%.
- Hanfmann hit 20 aces in 4 H2H matches (5 per match); Martinez only 6.
- Hanfmann's last 5 matches: 4.2 aces per match on average.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Market price1.85Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Martinez's high double-fault rate and H2H history suggest the total could exceed 5.5, but it's a close call.
- Martinez's double-fault rate: 5.2%; Hanfmann's: 3.1%.
- Martinez hit 19 double faults in 4 H2H matches (4.75 per match).
- Combined average double faults in recent matches: ~5.5.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-3 (4 meetings)

L7-6(1) 6-2Pedro Martinez Portero#157vYannick Hanfmann#51Sep 22, 2024

L6-2 6-0Pedro Martinez Portero#157vYannick Hanfmann#51Feb 27, 2023

W6-2 6-2Pedro Martinez Portero#157vYannick Hanfmann#51Feb 25, 2022

L6-2 6-2Pedro Martinez Portero#157vYannick Hanfmann#51May 10, 2018

Yannick Hanfmann dominates (4 meetings)4 total meetings

Pedro Martinez Portero

5W 10L

4-6 6-3 7-5#252Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 4-6 6-2#628S D Prajwal Dev

6-4 1-6 6-1#126Otto Virtanen

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#205Daniel Rincon

4-6 6-1 6-4#248Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-1#571Svyatoslav Gulin

7-6(4) 6-4#215Henri Squire

6-2 7-5#233Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-3 6-3#91Emilio Nava

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3#36Arthur Fery

6-2 7-5#161Rei Sakamoto

6-3 6-1#180Roberto Bautista Agut

7-6(5) 7-5#73Jesper De Jong

6-2 6-3#77Valentin Royer

6-3 6-1#71Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Yannick Hanfmann

7W 8L

6-3 6-4 6-4#26Karen Khachanov

6-7(6) 7-6(9) 6-2 6-3#89Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

7-5 6-3#18Luciano Darderi

7-6(2) 7-6(2)#71Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

6-3 7-6(4)#2Alexander Zverev

6-2 6-2#27Joao Fonseca

7-5 6-7(4) 6-2#80Mattia Bellucci

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#70Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-3 6-4 6-7(1) 6-4#69Hamad Medjedovic

7-6(7) 7-5#18Luciano Darderi

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4#320Max Schoenhaus

6-4 6-4#18Luciano Darderi

6-7(3) 7-6(2) 6-2#68Hubert Hurkacz

6-1 7-5#22Francisco Cerundolo

6-4 6-7(3) 7-5#87Marcos Giron