Murphy Cassone #287United States22 – 1Tristan Schoolkate #148Australia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in tight, three-set or extended two-set matches recently, making over 21.5 games likely.

• Their only H2H match had 23 games (6-4 7-6).
• Cassone's last 5 matches averaged 23.6 games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Schoolkate's last 5 matches averaged 22.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Cassone has kept most recent matches close, and the H2H was tight, so he is likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap.

• Cassone's last 5 losses: margins of 0, 5, 2, 11, 1 games (avg 3.8).
• Schoolkate's last 5 wins: margins of 5, 8, 5, 2, 6 games (avg 5.2).
• H2H margin was 2 games (6-4 7-6).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Both players tend to start matches with competitive sets, and the H2H first set went to 10 games, supporting over 9.5.

• H2H first set was 6-4 (10 games).
• Cassone's last 5 first sets: 10, 9, 10, 12, 13 games (avg 10.8).
• Schoolkate's last 5 first sets: 10, 9, 10, 12, 9 games (avg 10.0).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Second sets in their matches often extend beyond 9 games, with the H2H and recent form showing a pattern of tight second sets.

• H2H second set was 7-6 (13 games).
• Cassone's last 5 second sets: 7, 13, 10, 6, 13 games (avg 9.8).
• Schoolkate's last 5 second sets: 13, 13, 10, 6, 9 games (avg 10.2).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10

The read

The high frequency of three-set matches in both players' recent form points to a likely deciding set.

• Cassone's last 5 matches: 3 three-setters, 2 two-setters.
• Schoolkate's last 5 matches: 3 three-setters, 2 two-setters.
• Combined recent three-set rate: 60%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have above-average ace rates, and a typical match length should push total aces over 12.5.

• Schoolkate's ace rate is 10.1% (career), Cassone's is 8.2%.
• In their H2H, they combined for 11 aces in 23 games (0.48 per game).
• Projected 22-24 games at ~0.5 aces per game yields 11-12 aces, close to the line.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Schoolkate's high double fault rate and a likely extended match should push total double faults over 7.5.

• Schoolkate's double fault rate is 5.7%, Cassone's is 4.2%.
• In H2H, they combined for 7 double faults in 23 games (0.30 per game).
• Projected 22-24 games at ~0.35 per game yields 7.7-8.4 double faults.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in tiebreaks frequently, and their only meeting had one, making a tiebreak likely.

• H2H match featured a tiebreak in the second set.
• Cassone has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Schoolkate has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 5 matches.