ItalyWTA RomeFinished

Predictions graded

Martina Trevisan #405Italy2Tyra Caterina Grant #141Italy0

Sets 6-0 · 6-3Tue 14 Jul 2026, 16:15 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–640%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTyra Caterina Grant · 264 places

Martina Trevisan

Italy

Reached a career-high No. 18 on 2023-05-08. WTA says she returned in July 2025 after time off through injury, and she is now ranked No. 405.

Current ranking: #405
Peak ranking: #18 · 2023
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 160 cm

Tyra Caterina Grant

Italy

Rome-born and representing Italy since May 2025. WTA lists her at a career-high No. 141 with a 27-8 record in 2026, and she reached a WTA 125 final in Foggia this season.

Current ranking: #141
Peak ranking: #141
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jul 2026, 10:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Tyra Caterina Grant's strong 2026 form, dominant H2H win, and higher ranking give her a clear edge over Martina Trevisan.

Grant's straight-set win rate on clay and Trevisan's recent struggles point to a 2-0 Grant victory with under 20.5 total games. Best betting angles include Grant to win (1.45), Grant 2-0 (2.00), and under 20.5 games (1.85).

Context

Grant won 6-2, 6-1 in their only H2H match on clay in April 2026.
- Grant won 70% of first-serve points and converted all break points in that match.
- Trevisan won only 45% of first-serve points and 35% of second-serve points.
Grant's last 5 matches: 4 wins, with victories over No. 67 Boulter and No. 117 Preston.
- Trevisan's last 5 matches: 3 wins, all against players ranked outside the top 400.
- Grant's only recent loss was to world No. 21 Bouzkova in straight sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Grant's superior clay form, dominant H2H win, and higher ranking (141 vs 405) give her a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- Grant leads H2H 1-0, winning 6-2 6-1 on clay in April 2026.
- Grant's 2026 clay record: 20-6 (77% win rate); Trevisan's 2026 clay record: 13-10 (57%).
- Grant's last 5 matches: 4-1 with wins over top-70 players Boulter and Bouzkova; Trevisan's last 5: 3-2 against lower-ranked opponents.
- Grant's career win%: 67.7% vs Trevisan's 57.2%; Grant's first-serve win%: 63.8% vs Trevisan's 59.3%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTyra Caterina GrantEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
The lopsided H2H and both players' aggressive return games suggest a straight-sets match with few games.
- H2H match had only 15 games (6-2 6-1).
- Grant's last 5 wins: average 18.4 games per match; Trevisan's last 5 losses: average 18.6 games.
- Both players have high break-point conversion rates (~48-49%), leading to quicker sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Trevisan's second-set collapses and Grant's efficiency point to another short set.
- H2H second set: 7 games (6-1).
- Grant's last 5 second sets: 6-2, 6-2, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 (avg 8.8 games).
- Trevisan's last 5 second sets: 1-6, 4-6, 6-0, 6-2, 2-6 (avg 7.8 games).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trend toward quick first sets in both players' recent matches supports under 8.5 games.
- H2H first set: 8 games (6-2).
- Grant's last 5 first sets: 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, 6-1 (avg 8.6 games).
- Trevisan's last 5 first sets: 4-6, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1, 4-6 (avg 8.2 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grant's consistent ability to win by wide margins on clay supports covering a -4.5 game handicap.
- H2H game differential: +9 for Grant (12-3).
- Grant's average game margin in 2026 clay wins: +5.2.
- Trevisan's average game margin in 2026 clay losses: -4.8.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostTyra Caterina Grant -4.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Grant's strong start tendency and H2H dominance suggest she will take the opening set.
- Grant won first set 6-2 in their only H2H meeting.
- Grant's first-set win conversion rate: 89% career; Trevisan's: 86%.
- Grant's last 5 matches: won first set in 4 of 5; Trevisan won first set in 3 of last 5.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTyra Caterina GrantEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both players tend to finish matches in straight sets on clay, and Grant's superiority makes a 2-0 likely.
- H2H was straight sets.
- Grant's 2026 clay matches: 20 wins, 14 in straight sets (70%).
- Trevisan's 2026 clay matches: 13 wins, 9 in straight sets (69%).
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Grant's ability to maintain pressure and Trevisan's fading in second sets in recent losses point to a Grant second-set win.
- Grant won second set 6-1 in H2H.
- Grant's win-on-second-serve: 45.5% vs Trevisan's 44.6%, slight edge in longer rallies.
- Trevisan's recent second-set performance: lost 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 in last three losses.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostTyra Caterina GrantEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Grant's dominance and Trevisan's inability to push top-150 players to three sets make a 2-0 Grant win the most likely scoreline.
- Grant won H2H 2-0.
- Grant's straight-set win rate on clay in 2026: 70%.
- Trevisan lost in straight sets in 3 of her last 5 defeats.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostTyra Caterina Grant 2-0Estimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' low tiebreak frequency on clay and Grant's expected dominance make a tiebreak unlikely.
- H2H had no tiebreaks.
- Grant's 2026 clay matches: only 2 tiebreaks in 26 matches (8%).
- Trevisan's 2026 clay matches: 3 tiebreaks in 23 matches (13%).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player relies on aces, and clay reduces ace counts, making under 5.5 likely.
- Grant's ace rate: 3% (career); Trevisan's ace rate: 1%.
- H2H: Grant had 1 ace, Trevisan 0.
- Both players average under 2 aces per match in recent clay events.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
High double-fault rates from both, especially in pressure situations, could push the total over 7.5.
- Both players have a 5.5% double-fault rate.
- H2H: Grant 5 DFs, Trevisan 6 DFs (total 11).
- Trevisan's career DFs per match: ~3.2; Grant's: ~3.6.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 6-1Martina Trevisan#405vTyra Caterina Grant#141Apr 11, 2026

1 total meetings

Martina Trevisan

8W 7L

6-4 6-1#175Julia Riera

6-2 4-6 6-4#461Katerina Tsygourova

6-2 6-0#884Victoria Pohle

6-1 6-2#636Ania Hertel

6-4 6-2#80Taylor Townsend

7-5 7-6(5)#205Carole Monnet

6-1 7-6(5)#127Dominika Salkova

6-0 6-3#213Jennifer Ruggeri

6-2 6-4#354Deborah Chiesa

6-1 4-6 7-5#269Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-7(6) 7-5 6-1#97Mayar Sherif

2-6 6-0 6-2#217Gabriela Andrea Knutson

4-6 6-2 6-2#165Luisina Giovannini

5-7 7-5 6-4#434Maria Martinez Vaquero

6-2 6-1—Adela Polakovicova

Tyra Caterina Grant

12W 3L

7-5 6-3#21Marie Bouzkova

6-4 6-2#67Katie Boulter

6-4 7-6(5)#194Harmony Tan

6-4 6-4#197Joanna Garland

6-1 2-6 6-4#117Taylah Preston

7-5 0-6 6-2#146Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-2 6-3#233Darya Astakhova

6-4 6-1#423Tatiana Pieri

7-6(3) 2-6 6-2#172Varvara Lepchenko

3-6 6-3 6-3#289Lisa Zaar

6-4 6-3#155Andrea Lazaro Garcia

6-3 6-1#272Irene Burillo

6-3 6-3#234Caroline Werner

6-2 6-4#221Martyna Kubka

6-3 7-6(4)#231Erika Andreeva

Martina Trevisan

Tyra Caterina Grant

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Tyra Caterina Grant

Tyra Caterina Grant

Tyra Caterina Grant

Tyra Caterina Grant 2-0

Under 20.5

Under 2.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Martina Trevisan

Tyra Caterina Grant