Jay Clarke vs Louis Wessels: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Jay Clarke's significant ranking advantage (239 vs 723) and stronger clay pedigree, combined with recent wins over higher-quality opponents, make him the clear favorite.
- Jay Clarke ranking 239 vs Louis Wessels 723, a 484-place gap favoring Clarke.
- Clarke career clay win% 58.2% (182-131) vs Wessels 55.2% (239-194), Clarke stronger on clay.
- Clarke last 5 matches: 3-2 with wins over Boyer (164) and Holmgren (192); Wessels last 5: 5-0 but all opponents ranked 484+.
- Clarke first-set win conversion 85% vs Wessels 89%, both strong but Clarke's edge in quality opposition.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJay ClarkeEstimated chance78%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to win in straight sets against weaker opposition, and Clarke's edge should lead to a relatively quick match under 21.5 games.
- Clarke's last 5 Bo3 matches averaged 21.6 total games; Wessels' last 5 averaged 19.8.
- Clarke has 5 straight-set wins in last 15; Wessels has 7 straight-set wins in last 15.
- Both players have high first-set win conversion, reducing likelihood of extended three-setters.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Clarke's superior second serve and return game should allow him to cover a -3.5 game handicap against a much lower-ranked opponent.
- Clarke's average games won per match in last 5: 13.4; Wessels' average games lost: 8.6.
- Clarke's break point conversion 45% vs Wessels' break point save 59.8%, but Wessels faces weaker returners.
- Clarke's win on first serve 68.3% vs Wessels' 68.7%, nearly identical, but Clarke's second serve (51% vs 48.2%) is stronger.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostJay Clarke -3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Clarke's strong first-set record and superior competition level suggest he will start fast and take the opening set.
- Clarke first-set win conversion 85% career, Wessels 89% but against weaker fields.
- Clarke last 5 matches: won first set in 3 of 5, including vs Boyer (164) and Holmgren (192).
- Wessels last 5: won first set in all 5, but opponents averaged ranking ~800.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJay ClarkeEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Clarke's overall quality and Wessels' struggles against higher-ranked opponents make a straight-sets victory for Clarke the most likely set outcome.
- Clarke won 5 of last 15 matches in straight sets; Wessels lost 5 of last 15 in straight sets.
- Wessels' last 5 wins all in straight sets, but against much lower-ranked players.
- Clarke's superior return stats (41% return points won vs 40%) and break point conversion (45% vs 43%) give him an edge in close sets.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostJay Clarke 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high straight-set rates for both players, especially Clarke's dominance in this matchup, point to a match finishing in two sets.
- Clarke's last 15 matches: 10 ended in straight sets (67%).
- Wessels' last 15 matches: 11 ended in straight sets (73%).
- Both players have high first-set win conversion, reducing three-set frequency.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The low frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches for both players, combined with Clarke's expected dominance, makes a tiebreak unlikely.
- Clarke tiebreak win% 50%, Wessels 47%, both average.
- Clarke's last 15 matches: only 2 tiebreaks played.
- Wessels' last 15 matches: 3 tiebreaks played.
- Both players have high first-set win conversion, reducing close sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wessels' high double fault rate, combined with Clarke's solid rate, pushes the total double faults over 5.5 in a typical clay match.
- Wessels double fault rate 5.6% vs Clarke 3.5%, Wessels prone to double faults.
- Combined double fault rates suggest ~9.1 per 100 points; in ~120 points, expect ~10.9 double faults.
- Wessels has 2221 career double faults in 583 matches (3.8 per match), Clarke 1490 in 646 (2.3 per match).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite clay slowing serves, the combined ace rates of both players project over 7.5 aces in a match likely to have around 20 games.
- Wessels ace rate 6.1% vs Clarke 4.5%, Wessels taller (198cm) and serves bigger.
- Combined ace rates suggest ~10.6 aces per 100 points; in a typical 20-game match (~120 points), expect ~12.7 aces.
- Clay reduces ace counts, but both have above-average ace rates for clay.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Jay Clarke #239United Kingdom1Louis Wessels #723Germany2

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Jay Clarke

Louis Wessels

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Jay Clarke

Jay Clarke

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Result0 of 1 landed

Games0 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Jay Clarke

Louis Wessels