Daniel Milavsky #335United States22 – 0Duncan Chan #664Canada0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Milavsky's superior ranking, serve stats, and recent quality wins over higher-ranked opponents give him a clear edge in this hard-court matchup.

• Milavsky holds a 335 ranking vs Chan's 664, indicating a significant class gap.
• Milavsky's career win rate is 65.7% vs Chan's 59.5%, with a stronger serve profile (ace rate 8.6% vs 4.8%, first-serve win 72.8% vs 67.5%).
• Milavsky's recent form includes wins over top-200 opponents (Bu Yunchaokete, ranked 109) and a 4-1 record in his last 5 matches.
• Chan's last 5 matches show inconsistency: a retirement win over an unknown player and losses to Legout (582) and Shick (232).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Chan's tendency for close first sets and Milavsky's competitive starts make a 10+ game first set likely.

• Milavsky's last 5 first sets average 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Chan's last 5 first sets average 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 exceeding 9.5.
• Chan's first sets often feature tiebreaks or 7-5 scores, indicating tight starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Milavsky's high first-set conversion rate and recent fast starts against quality opponents suggest he will take the opening set.

• Milavsky's first-set win conversion rate is 87%, indicating he starts matches strongly.
• Chan's first-set win conversion is 95%, but against weaker opposition; his recent first sets include a loss to Legout (6-7) and a tight win over an unknown player.
• Milavsky has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, including against top-200 players.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' double fault rates, especially Milavsky's higher rate, make over 5.5 double faults probable.

• Milavsky's double fault rate is 5.1%, averaging about 5 double faults per match.
• Chan's double fault rate is 3.8%, averaging about 3-4 per match.
• Combined, their rates suggest a total of 8-9 double faults, exceeding 5.5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Milavsky's high ace rate alone should push the total aces over 7.5, even with Chan's modest contribution.

• Milavsky averages 8.6% aces per serve, which over a typical 2-set match (approx. 20 service games) yields around 8-9 aces.
• Chan's ace rate is lower at 4.8%, contributing about 4-5 aces.
• Combined, their ace rates suggest a total around 12-14 aces, comfortably over 7.5.