TürkiyeWTA IstanbulFinished

Predictions graded

Anastasia Zakharova #101Russia2Mariia Tkacheva #721Russia1

Sets 6-4 · 3-6 · 6-4Tue 14 Jul 2026, 10:23 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnastasia Zakharova · 620 places

Anastasia Zakharova

Russia

Russian right-hander born in 2002. Public career records show most of her title volume has come on hard courts, with additional clay success on the ITF circuit.

Current ranking: #101
Peak ranking: #65
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Mariia Tkacheva

Russia

Russian player born in 2001. Public records show an ITF-centered singles profile, with her listed singles finals and titles overwhelmingly coming on hard courts.

Current ranking: #721
Peak ranking: #266 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jul 2026, 11:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Zakharova's superior ranking, recent form, and dominant H2H make her a heavy favorite.

Best betting angles are under 19.5 total games and Zakharova 2-0, both offering solid value. Avoid the -6.5 game handicap due to Zakharova's narrow recent margins.

Context

Zakharova played five matches between June 20 and June 29, with three going to three sets and two featuring tiebreaks.
- She lost her last two grass matches in straight sets to Muchova and Maria, winning only 8 games combined.
- The Istanbul tournament starts immediately after Wimbledon, giving her minimal time to adjust from grass to hard courts.
Tkacheva's most recent match in the data is from February 21, 2026, a 6-1 6-1 loss to Bartunkova.
- She has only three matches recorded in 2026, with a 1-2 record, all on hard courts.
- No intel or tournament entries suggest she played any events between late February and mid-July.
Zakharova won 6-3 6-1 on hard court in March 2022, the only hard-court H2H between them.
- Zakharova leads the overall H2H 2-1, with both wins coming in straight sets.
- Tkacheva's only H2H win came on clay in 2019, a three-set comeback.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.27
The read
Zakharova's superior ranking, recent form against stronger opposition, and dominant H2H win on hard court make her a clear favorite.
- Zakharova leads H2H 2-1, including a 6-3 6-1 win in their most recent meeting (2022).
- Zakharova's career hard-court win percentage is 63% (159-93) vs Tkacheva's 60% (133-88), but Zakharova has far more volume and higher-level competition.
- Zakharova's recent form includes wins over top-100 players (Boulter, Yastremska) while Tkacheva's last 5 matches are against opponents ranked 43-520 with only 1 win.
- Ranking gap: Zakharova #101 vs Tkacheva #721, indicating a significant class difference.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnastasia ZakharovaEstimated chance85%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Given the mismatch in ranking and form, a quick match with few games is likely, supported by Tkacheva's recent lopsided losses.
- Zakharova's recent wins have averaged 19.3 total games, but against weaker opponents (Inglis, Tagger) she kept totals low (16, 35).
- Tkacheva's last 5 losses averaged 15.6 total games, with three matches under 15 games.
- H2H on hard court: 16 total games in Zakharova's win.
- Zakharova's serve/return edge: she wins 61% on first serve and 48% return points, while Tkacheva's return points won is 47% against lower-level competition.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 19.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zakharova's ability to break early and hold comfortably points to a first set with 8 or fewer games.
- Zakharova's recent first-set scores in wins: 6-4, 7-6, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2.
- Tkacheva's recent first-set scores in losses: 1-6, 3-6, 1-6, 2-6, 5-7.
- H2H hard-court first set: 6-3 (9 games).
- Zakharova's first-serve win percentage (61%) and Tkacheva's low return win percentage (40% in H2H) suggest quick holds.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expect another dominant set from Zakharova, keeping the game count low as Tkacheva struggles to hold serve.
- Zakharova's recent second-set scores in straight-set wins: 6-2, 6-1, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1.
- Tkacheva's recent second-set scores in losses: 1-6, 3-6, 2-6, 2-6, 6-4 (only competitive set).
- H2H hard-court second set: 6-1 (7 games).
- Zakharova's break-point conversion rate is 51%, and Tkacheva's break-point save rate is 54% against weaker opponents.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Zakharova's strong starts and Tkacheva's poor opening sets make Zakharova highly likely to take the first set.
- Zakharova has won the first set in 8 of her last 10 matches.
- Tkacheva has lost the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches, often by wide margins.
- Zakharova's first-set win conversion rate is 89%, showing she starts strong.
- In their only hard-court H2H, Zakharova won the first set 6-3.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnastasia ZakharovaEstimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Zakharova's momentum and Tkacheva's inability to recover after losing the first set make Zakharova the strong favorite for set 2.
- Zakharova has won the second set in 7 of her last 10 wins.
- Tkacheva has lost the second set in all of her last 5 losses, often by scores like 6-1 or 6-2.
- Zakharova's deciding-set win rate is 57%, but she rarely needs it against lower-ranked players.
- In their hard-court H2H, Zakharova won the second set 6-1.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAnastasia ZakharovaEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Zakharova's ability to dominate early and Tkacheva's tendency to lose in straight sets against higher-ranked players suggest a 2-0 victory.
- Zakharova has won 7 of her last 10 completed matches in straight sets.
- Tkacheva has lost 4 of her last 5 matches in straight sets, often by wide margins (6-1 6-1, 6-1 6-2).
- In their most recent H2H on hard court, Zakharova won 6-3 6-1.
- Zakharova's first-set win conversion rate is 89%, indicating she closes out matches efficiently when ahead.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostAnastasia Zakharova 2-0Estimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Given Zakharova's ability to win sets comfortably and Tkacheva's poor tiebreak record, a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Zakharova's tiebreak win percentage is 47%, and she has played tiebreaks in 3 of her last 15 matches.
- Tkacheva's tiebreak win percentage is 38%, and she has played tiebreaks in 2 of her last 15 matches.
- In their H2H, no match has featured a tiebreak.
- Zakharova's first-set dominance (89% conversion) reduces the likelihood of tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and a competitive match could push the total over 7.5, though it's a borderline call.
- Zakharova's double-fault rate is 4.8% (career 1451 in 484 matches), averaging ~3.0 per match.
- Tkacheva's double-fault rate is 5.1% (career 763 in 253 matches), averaging ~3.0 per match.
- Combined average double faults per match: ~6.0, but in a two-set match, 7.5 is reachable if both serve under pressure.
- H2H stats show 9 double faults for Zakharova and 7 for Tkacheva across 3 matches, averaging 5.3 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2-1 (3 meetings)

W6-3 6-1Anastasia Zakharova#101vMariia Tkacheva#721Mar 6, 2022

L4-6 6-2 6-4Anastasia Zakharova#101vMariia Tkacheva#721Aug 29, 2019

W6-4 6-1Anastasia Zakharova#101vMariia Tkacheva#721Apr 16, 2019

3 total meetings

Anastasia Zakharova

7W 8L

6-3 6-2#6Karolina Muchova

6-2 6-1#76Tatjana Maria

6-4 3-6 6-3#61Yuliia Starodubtseva

7-6(8) 2-6 7-6(7)#88Oksana Selekhmeteva

6-4 5-7 7-6(7)#84Lilli Tagger

7-6(5) 6-2#414Hannah Klugman

7-5 6-2#6Karolina Muchova

6-4 6-2#63Daria Kasatkina

4-6 6-3 6-3#107Elsa Jacquemot

6-4 6-1#23Madison Keys

6-3 3-6 6-4#67Katie Boulter

6-2 6-2#151Maddison Inglis

6-4 6-1#7Linda Noskova

4-6 7-5 7-6(6)#74Dayana Yastremska

6-3 6-0#144Marina Bassols Ribera

Mariia Tkacheva

8W 7L

6-1 6-1#43Nikola Bartunkova

6-3 3-6 6-3#520Shilin Xu

6-1 6-2#35Donna Vekic

6-2 6-2#281Sara Saito

2-2 ret.—Emma Van Poppel

2-6 6-4 6-3#288Sohyun Park

6-2 6-1#420Vaidehi Chaudhari

7-5 6-2#615Maria Kalyakina

6-2 6-1#850Elena Jamshidi

7-5 4-6 7-6(6)#229Katherine Sebov

5-7 6-2 7-6(2)#243Alicia Dudeney

6-1 7-5#249Francesca Curmi

6-0 6-2#1230Diana Maria Mihail

6-3 6-3#662Kailey Evans

6-0 6-1#552Tamila Gadamauri

Anastasia Zakharova

Mariia Tkacheva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Anastasia Zakharova

Anastasia Zakharova

Anastasia Zakharova 2-0

Under 19.5

Anastasia Zakharova

No

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Anastasia Zakharova (-6.5) @ 3.30

Head-to-Head

Anastasia Zakharova

Mariia Tkacheva