Granby - CanadaFinished

Predictions graded

Aleksandar Vukic #113Australia2Liam Broady #198United Kingdom1

Sets 6-4 · 5-7 · 7-6Tue 14 Jul 2026, 01:54 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–357%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAleksandar Vukic · 85 places

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

Career-high No. 48 came on 2023-08-14. His standout main-tour peak was the 2023 Atlanta final, and his best recent results have largely come in hard-court conditions.

Current ranking: #113
Peak ranking: #48 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Liam Broady

United Kingdom

Career-high No. 93 came on 2023-09-25. His best Slam runs were Wimbledon third rounds in 2022 and 2023, while his current ranking sits well below that 2023 peak.

Current ranking: #198
Peak ranking: #93 · 2023
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jul 2026, 15:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Liam Broady holds a significant advantage over Aleksandar Vukic, having beaten him in straight sets just days ago and boasting a far superior 2026 hard-court record (19-9 vs.

6-9). Vukic's poor recent form and tendency to lose first sets further tilt the matchup toward Broady, though the match could feature over 21.5 total games given both players' competitive recent outings.

Context

Lost 4 of last 5 matches, with 3 straight-set defeats.
- Most recent loss was 7-6(4) 6-3 to Broady on 8 July 2026.
- Only win in that span came against world No. 332 Hamish Stewart in three sets.
Broady won 7-6(4) 6-3 on 8 July 2026.
- Broady won 45% of return points vs Vukic's 30%.
- Broady converted 4/7 break points, Vukic 1/3.
Vukic's 2026 hard-court record: 6 wins, 9 losses.
- Broady's 2026 hard-court record: 19 wins, 9 losses.
- Vukic's career hard-court win rate is 54.1%, Broady's is 58.9%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Liam Broady

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Broady's recent H2H win, superior 2026 hard-court form, and Vukic's poor recent results give Broady a clear edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Broady's recent H2H win, superior 2026 hard-court form, and Vukic's poor recent results give Broady a clear edge.
- Broady won the only H2H meeting 7-6(4) 6-3 on grass just 5 days ago (2026-07-08).
- Broady has a 19-9 hard-court record in 2026, while Vukic is 6-9 on hard this year.
- Broady's return points won in the H2H was 45% vs Vukic's 30%, and he converted 4/7 break points.
- Vukic has lost 4 of his last 5 matches, with 3 straight-set defeats.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLiam BroadyEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches and their tight H2H suggest a competitive contest likely to surpass 21.5 games.
- The H2H match had 22 games (7-6, 6-3).
- Broady's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 games, with 3 exceeding 21.5.
- Vukic's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 games, with 3 exceeding 21.5.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The recent H2H tiebreak and both players' tendency for extended first sets make over 9.5 games likely.
- The H2H first set went to a tiebreak (13 games).
- Broady's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games.
- Vukic's last 5 first sets averaged 10.0 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Broady's recent H2H margin and Vukic's poor form suggest Broady could win by at least 3 games.
- Broady covered a -2.5 game handicap in the H2H (won by 4 games).
- Broady's average game margin in wins this year is +3.8.
- Vukic's average game margin in losses this year is -4.2.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostLiam Broady -2.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Broady's strong start in the recent H2H and Vukic's pattern of losing first sets support Broady taking the opener.
- Broady won the first set 7-6 in their H2H meeting last week.
- Broady has won the first set in 4 of his last 6 matches.
- Vukic has lost the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLiam BroadyEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vukic's ace rate and the H2H ace count suggest a combined total over 8.5 is plausible.
- Vukic averages 10.7% aces per serve, Broady 5%.
- In the H2H, there were 9 total aces (Vukic 6, Broady 3).
- Vukic has hit 5+ aces in 4 of his last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The H2H double-fault count and both players' rates make over 5.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Vukic averages 3.0% double faults, Broady 3.2%.
- In the H2H, there were 8 double faults (Vukic 5, Broady 3).
- Vukic has committed 4+ double faults in 3 of his last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-6(4) 6-3Aleksandar Vukic#113vLiam Broady#198Jul 8, 2026

1 total meetings

Aleksandar Vukic

6W 9L

7-6(4) 6-3#198Liam Broady

7-6(7) 6-1 6-1#76Jenson Brooksby

7-5 6-1#76Jenson Brooksby

7-6(5) 4-6 6-4#332Hamish Stewart

7-5 6-3#202Harry Wendelken

7-6(7) 6-1#202Harry Wendelken

6-3 6-2#74James Duckworth

2-6 6-4 6-3#170Jack Pinnington Jones

6-3 6-3 7-6(4)#42Raphael Collignon

6-0 6-3#89Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-1 6-7(3) 6-3#97Rinky Hijikata

6-4 6-2#24Tommy Paul

6-3 5-7 6-0#112Patrick Kypson

6-4 1-6 6-1#87Marcos Giron

6-4 6-2#116Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Liam Broady

7W 8L

6-3 7-6(6)#46Alex Michelsen

6-3 7-6(2)#253Andre Ilagan

7-6(4) 6-3#113Aleksandar Vukic

2-6 7-5 7-6(5)#389Jack Kennedy

6-1 6-2#347Hayato Matsuoka

7-6(6) 4-6 7-5#192August Holmgren

7-5 6-2#72Zachary Svajda

6-2 6-4#230Raul Brancaccio

6-3 3-6 6-2#351Ioannis Xilas

6-4 6-2#82Daniel Merida Aguilar

5-7 6-3 6-3#189David Jorda Sanchis

6-3 6-0#268Cezar Cretu

6-2 4-6 6-3#167Daniil Glinka

6-3 6-0#426Daniel Dutra Da Silva

7-5 6-4#193Gianluca Cadenasso