Karl Poling #508United States11 – 2Kenta Miyoshi #817Japan2

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29

The read

Miyoshi's dominant H2H win 2 days ago and current 6-match hard-court winning streak give him a clear edge in form and confidence.

• Miyoshi beat Poling 6-3, 6-4 in Laval QF on 11 July 2026, winning 75% first-serve points and 61% second-serve points.
• Miyoshi is 6-0 in his last 6 matches on hard, including a 6-4, 7-6 win over Kuzuhara in Granby qualifying.
• Poling needed three sets to beat Kuhar (rank 797) in Granby qualifying, while Miyoshi won in straight sets against a higher-ranked opponent.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Poling's recent three-set battles and Miyoshi's occasional tight sets make a total over 21.5 games likely.

• Their H2H match had 19 games, but Poling's recent matches average 22.3 games per match.
• Miyoshi's last 5 matches average 20.6 games, with two matches exceeding 21.5 games.
• Poling has played three-setters in 3 of his last 5 matches, indicating a tendency for longer matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Poling's recent form shows he can keep matches close, and a +3.5 game handicap is likely to be covered even in a loss.

• In their H2H, Poling lost by 5 games (12-7), but his recent losses have been closer, with an average margin of 4.2 games.
• Poling has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches.
• Miyoshi's last 5 wins have an average margin of 5.2 games, but Poling's fighting spirit in three-setters suggests he can keep it close.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While Miyoshi is favored, Poling's ability to push sets deep suggests the first set could exceed 9.5 games.

• The first set in their H2H had 9 games (6-3), but Poling's recent first sets average 10.2 games.
• Miyoshi's last 5 first sets average 9.4 games, with two sets going over 9.5.
• Poling has played a tiebreak or 7-5 set in 2 of his last 5 first sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players tend to have competitive second sets, making over 9.5 games likely.

• The second set in their H2H had 10 games (6-4).
• Miyoshi's last 5 second sets average 9.8 games, with three sets over 9.5.
• Poling's second sets average 10.4 games in his last 5 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36

The read

Miyoshi's strong first-set record and recent H2H dominance suggest he is likely to start quickly again.

• Miyoshi won the first set 6-3 in their H2H meeting on 11 July 2026.
• Miyoshi has won the first set in 5 of his last 6 matches, with a first-set win conversion rate of 91% in his career.
• Poling lost the first set in his last match against Kuhar and has a first-set win rate of only 40% in his last 5 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Miyoshi's high ace rate and the likelihood of a competitive match with many service games make over 7.5 aces probable.

• Miyoshi averages 7.3 aces per match (ace rate 7.3%), with 6 aces in the H2H meeting.
• Poling averages 2.9 aces per match, but Miyoshi's high ace rate pushes the combined total.
• In their H2H, total aces were 6 (Miyoshi) + unknown (Poling), but Miyoshi alone can cover over 7.5 if he serves well.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Poling's higher double-fault rate and the potential for a longer match increase the chance of over 5.5 double faults.

• Poling has a double-fault rate of 4.0%, averaging about 4 double faults per match.
• Miyoshi has a double-fault rate of 2.7%, averaging about 2.7 per match.
• In their H2H, Poling had 2 double faults and Miyoshi had 1, but Poling's higher rate in longer matches could push the total over.