Cordenons - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Francesco Forti #378Italy0Peter Makk #564Hungary2

Sets 1-6 · 1-6Mon 13 Jul 2026, 08:15 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions0–80%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesco Forti · 186 places

Francesco Forti

Italy

ATP's player bio lists clay as his favourite surface. Reliable sourced profile detail beyond ranking, handedness and height was limited in this search.

Current ranking: #378
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Peter Makk

Hungary

Reliable public ATP bio information was limited in the sourced material. Use current ranking and the match-context section as the main display context.

Current ranking: #564
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Forti's superior clay record and ranking make him the likely winner, but his heavy recent workload and Makk's fresher legs create value in betting against the short 1.45 odds.

The best angles are over 21.5 total games and a tiebreak in the match, where the model identifies significant edges based on both players' recent trends toward longer, tighter contests.

Context

Forti's Q1 win over Pampanin lasted 1 hour 58 minutes, compared to Makk's 1 hour 9 minutes against Delaney.
- Both matches were played on Sunday, July 12, with the Q2 match scheduled for Monday morning, giving Forti less recovery time.
- Forti has played several three-set matches in recent weeks, including a 3-hour 20-minute battle on June 1, adding to cumulative fatigue.
In his last 15 matches, Forti has wins over Carballes Baena (ranked 163), Bueno (182), and Jorda Sanchis (184).
- Makk's best win in the same period was against Kuzmanov (ranked 427), and he lost to players ranked 259 and 580.
- Forti's 27-10 clay record in 2026 includes a higher quality of opposition than Makk's 14-7.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Francesco Forti

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Forti's superior clay-court pedigree and ranking advantage give him a clear edge, but the odds overestimate his win probability relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Forti's superior clay-court pedigree and ranking advantage, combined with a stronger recent quality-of-opposition trend, give him a clear edge despite a heavier Day 1 load.
- Forti has a 27-10 clay record in 2026 vs Makk's 14-7, showing stronger surface fit.
- Forti's career clay win% is 198-119 (62.5%) vs Makk's 39-29 (57.4%).
- Forti holds a 378 ranking edge over Makk's 564, indicating higher level.
- Forti's recent form includes wins over top-200 opponents (Carballes Baena, Bueno) while Makk's best recent win is vs #427 Kuzmanov.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFrancesco FortiEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, and their competitive profiles indicate a tight battle likely to surpass 21.5 games.
- Forti's last 5 matches averaged 24.6 total games, with 4 of 5 exceeding 21.5.
- Makk's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 total games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5.
- Both players have high deciding-set win rates (Forti 60%, Makk 59%), suggesting close matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first-set trends for both players point to a closely fought opening set likely to exceed 9.5 games.
- Forti's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 over 9.5.
- Makk's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
- Both players have strong first-set win rates, suggesting a competitive opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While less certain, the pattern of competitive second sets in recent matches supports a lean toward over 9.5 games.
- Forti's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
- Makk's last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
- Both players have shown resilience in second sets after losing the first.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Forti's tendency to start fast, evidenced by an 88% career first-set win conversion and recent pattern, makes him likely to take the opener.
- Forti has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches.
- Forti's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, showing strong starts.
- Makk lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches against similar-level opponents.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFrancesco FortiEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of both players' tendency to go the distance and their competitive recent form suggests a slight edge for a three-set match.
- Forti has played 3-setters in 6 of his last 15 matches.
- Makk has played 3-setters in 5 of his last 15 matches.
- Both have deciding-set win rates near 60%, indicating they often push matches to a third.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
The high frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches, combined with their competitive profiles, makes a tiebreak likely.
- Forti has played a tiebreak in 7 of his last 15 matches.
- Makk has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches.
- Both players have tiebreak win rates near 50% (Forti 51%, Makk 38%), indicating frequent tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The projected total hovers around 5.5, with a slight lean toward over given the potential for tight scorelines.
- Forti's double fault rate is 4.2%, Makk's is 3.3%.
- In a 22+ game match, expected double faults: Forti ~3, Makk ~2, totaling ~5.
- Pressure situations in a close match could increase double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Francesco Forti

9W 6L

6-1 7-6(3)—Pietro Pampanin

4-6 6-3 7-6(5)#426Jack Loge

3-6 6-4 6-2#567Fausto Tabacco

3-6 6-1 6-4#163Roberto Carballes Baena

7-6(7) 6-4#227Andrea Guerrieri

6-3 6-7(5) 6-1#268Franco Agamenone

7-5 4-6 7-6(2)#182Gonzalo Bueno

7-6(2) 7-6(5)#406Samuele Pieri

4-6 6-4 6-2#897Luca Castagnola

6-1 6-3#839Pierluigi Basile

6-0 7-6(4)#490Jelle Sels

7-6(10) 6-7(5) 7-6(1)#184David Jorda Sanchis

7-6(13) 6-2#499Matthew William Donald

6-4 6-2#359Enrico Dalla Valle

2-6 7-6(3) 6-4#275Stefan Dostanic

Peter Makk

10W 5L

6-1 6-0#898Jesse Delaney

4-6 6-3 6-0#427Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-3 7-6(6)#629Ramkumar Ramanathan

6-1 7-6(4)#259Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-7(5) 6-3—Robert Guna

6-3 3-6 6-3#580Yannik Kelm

6-3 6-3—Jeremy Schifris

6-7(2) 6-3 7-6(4)—Oskari Paldanius

6-4 6-0#580Yannik Kelm

6-2 4-6 6-3#493Vladyslav Orlov

6-0 6-3#820Daniel Salazar Martinez

6-1 6-3—Botond Kisantal

6-2 6-2—Tymur Bieldiugin

6-3 6-4#517Karim Bennani

6-2 6-2#896David Poljak