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Predictions graded

Carlos Sanchez Jover #366Spain1Taro Daniel #203Japan2

Sets 2-6 · 6-2 · 2-6Mon 13 Jul 2026, 11:39 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions6–460%

Edges3–443%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTaro Daniel · 163 places

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Spain

Spanish left-hander born on 21 July 2000. His public results log is heavily clay-weighted, including all eight listed ITF singles titles, and his career-high ranking is No. 260 from 31 March 2025.

Current ranking: #366
Peak ranking: #260 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 173 cm

Taro Daniel

Japan

Daniel was born on 27 January 1993. ATP's bio says his favorite surfaces are hard and clay, and he reached a career-high No. 58 on 15 January 2024.

Current ranking: #203
Peak ranking: #58 · 2024
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Hard, Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 23:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Taro Daniel is in superb form (13-2 in last 15) and dominated their only H2H on clay 6-2, 6-4.

Back Daniel to win at 1.44 (8.6% edge), under 21.5 total games at 1.95 (13.7% edge), and Daniel 2-0 in set betting at 2.20 (19.5% edge).

Context

Daniel is 13-2 in his last 15 matches, with 10 of those wins coming in straight sets.
- He beat Federico Coria 6-0, 6-2 in the previous round, losing only two games.
- His recent wins include opponents ranked 75, 86, 99, and 105, showing quality.
Daniel won 6-2, 6-4 in their only H2H, played on clay in May 2026.
- He won 59% of second-serve return points compared to Sanchez Jover's 29%.
- Daniel converted 56% of break points, while Sanchez Jover converted 40%.
Sanchez Jover is 7-8 in his last 15 matches, with losses to players ranked 228, 259, 359, and 446.
- He needed three sets to beat opponents ranked 233, 588, 597, and 747 in recent weeks.
- His only win over a top-200 player in this stretch was a retirement against Carballes Baena.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Taro Daniel's dominant H2H win, superior recent form, and stronger serve/return stats on clay give him a clear edge over Carlos Sanchez Jover.
- Taro Daniel won the only H2H meeting 6-2 6-4 on clay in May 2026, dominating second-serve points (59% vs 29%) and converting 56% of break points.
- Daniel's recent form: 13-2 in last 15 matches, including 10 straight-set wins and a 6-0 6-2 win over Coria yesterday; Sanchez Jover is 7-8 in last 15 with losses to lower-ranked opponents.
- Daniel's clay serve/return edge: 67.9% first-serve points won, 51.1% second-serve points won, 59.9% break-point save rate vs Sanchez Jover's 61.9%/49.5%/56.6%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTaro DanielEstimated chance78%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Daniel's efficiency in closing matches and the low-game H2H suggest a relatively quick match under 21.5 games.
- Daniel's last 10 wins averaged 18.2 total games; Sanchez Jover's last 10 matches averaged 21.4 total games.
- H2H match had 18 total games (6-2 6-4).
- Daniel's straight-set win rate in recent form is 10/13 wins; Sanchez Jover has been involved in 3 three-setters in last 5 matches but against weaker opponents.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first-set trends and the H2H indicate a high likelihood of a short first set under 9.5 games.
- Daniel's first-set scores in last 15: 6-0, 4-6, 6-4, 6-0, 3-6, 7-6, 6-3, 6-1, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-4 — 10/15 under 9.5 games.
- Sanchez Jover's first-set scores in last 15: 6-3, 2-6, 2-6, 5-7, 1-6, 6-7, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-7, 3-6, 2-6, 7-5, 2-6, 6-4 — 9/15 under 9.5 games.
- H2H first set was 6-2 (8 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Daniel's ability to win comfortably and the H2H margin suggest he will cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Daniel's average game margin in last 10 wins: +5.8 games; Sanchez Jover's average game margin in last 10 matches: -1.2 games.
- H2H margin was +6 games for Daniel.
- Daniel's break-point conversion (43%) and save rate (59.9%) are better than Sanchez Jover's (45% conversion, 56.6% save) against stronger competition.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTaro Daniel -3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Daniel's strong second-set performances and Sanchez Jover's inconsistency point to a second set under 9.5 games.
- Daniel's second-set scores in last 15: 6-2, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-0, 0-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, 7-5, 7-5, 4-6, 6-1, 6-0 — 11/15 under 9.5 games.
- Sanchez Jover's second-set scores in last 15: 3-0 ret, 5-7, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6, 1-6, 6-4, 7-6, 5-7, 3-6, 4-6, 6-1, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 — 8/15 under 9.5 games.
- H2H second set was 6-4 (10 games, but close to 9.5).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Daniel's strong start trend and H2H dominance suggest he will win the first set.
- Daniel has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches; Sanchez Jover has lost the first set in 7 of his last 15.
- In their H2H, Daniel took the first set 6-2.
- Daniel's first-set win conversion rate is 84% career, Sanchez Jover's is 88% but against weaker competition.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTaro DanielEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Daniel's dominance and Sanchez Jover's difficulty in forcing deciders make a straight-set win likely.
- Daniel has won in straight sets in 10 of his last 13 wins; Sanchez Jover has lost in straight sets in 6 of his last 8 losses.
- H2H was a straight-set win for Daniel.
- Daniel's first-set win rate (84% career) and Sanchez Jover's lower comeback rate (25%) favor a 2-0 outcome.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Daniel's consistent set-winning form and return advantage make him likely to take the second set as well.
- Daniel has won the second set in 11 of his last 15 matches; Sanchez Jover has lost the second set in 8 of his last 15.
- In their H2H, Daniel won the second set 6-4.
- Daniel's return points won (39%) and break-point conversion (43%) are superior to Sanchez Jover's (45% return, 45% conversion) against stronger opponents.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostTaro DanielEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Daniel's consistent straight-set victories and the H2H pattern support a 2-0 win.
- Daniel's straight-set win rate in last 15: 10/13 wins; Sanchez Jover's straight-set loss rate in last 15: 6/8 losses.
- H2H was 2-0 to Daniel.
- Daniel's superior serve/return stats and recent form reduce the likelihood of a third set.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostTaro Daniel 2-0Estimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Daniel's tendency to win sets without tiebreaks and the H2H pattern make a tiebreak unlikely.
- Daniel's tiebreak rate in last 15: 2/15 matches; Sanchez Jover's: 5/15 matches.
- H2H had no tiebreaks.
- Daniel's straight-set dominance reduces tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low ace rates and clay surface dynamics point to a low total ace count under 5.5.
- Daniel's ace rate: 4.5% (career), Sanchez Jover's: 1.6% (career) — combined low ace output.
- In H2H, total aces were 3 (Daniel 2, Sanchez Jover 1).
- Clay surface reduces ace counts; both players rely more on rally tolerance.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' elevated double-fault rates and the H2H data suggest total double faults over 5.5.
- Sanchez Jover's double-fault rate: 3.6% (career), Daniel's: 3.4% (career) — both above average.
- In H2H, Sanchez Jover had 4 double faults; Daniel's count was not recorded but his rate suggests 2-3.
- Pressure of qualifying match may increase double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 6-4Carlos Sanchez Jover#366vTaro Daniel#203May 12, 2026

1 total meetings

Carlos Sanchez Jover

8W 7L

6-3 3-0 ret.#163Roberto Carballes Baena

6-2 7-5#259Felix Balshaw

6-2 6-7(3) 7-5#228Max Alcala Gurri

5-7 7-6(3) 6-4#588Emilien Demanet

1-6 7-6(2) 6-4#233Alejandro Moro Canas

7-6(4) 6-1#359Enrico Dalla Valle

6-4 6-4#208Matej Dodig

3-6 7-6(7) 6-0#747Manuel Mazza

6-3 5-7 6-3#597Gerard Campana Lee

7-6(4) 6-3#446Pietro Orlando Fellin

6-3 6-4#214Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-2 6-4#203Taro Daniel

7-5 6-1#187Remy Bertola

6-2 6-7(5) 7-6(5)#231Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-4 6-4#540Mirza Basic

Taro Daniel

13W 2L

6-0 6-2#889Federico Coria

4-6 6-2 6-2#75Valentin Royer

6-4 6-3#154Zdenek Kolar

6-0 6-4#201Genaro Alberto Olivieri

3-6 6-0 7-6(2)#99Alexander Shevchenko

7-6(6) 0-6 6-2#174Federico Cina

6-3 6-3#169Zsombor Piros

6-1 6-3#86Emilio Nava

6-3 6-3#172Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-3#167Lukas Neumayer

6-4 7-5#886Tomas Lanik

7-6(4) 7-5#256Hynek Barton

6-4 4-6 6-3#105Damir Dzumhur

7-6(3) 6-1#315Jonas Forejtek

6-4 6-0#568Lukas Pokorny

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Taro Daniel

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Taro Daniel

Taro Daniel

Under 2.5

Taro Daniel

Taro Daniel 2-0

Under 21.5

Taro Daniel -3.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Taro Daniel