Martin Krumich vs Frederico Ferreira Silva: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Krumich's superior 2026 clay win rate and slightly better recent form against similar-level opponents give him a narrow edge in this first meeting.
- Krumich has a 23-15 clay record in 2026 vs Ferreira Silva's 10-15, showing stronger surface fit this season.
- Krumich's recent form (last 5): 3-2 with wins over opponents ranked 406, 350, 463; Ferreira Silva is 2-3 with losses to 447, 217, 182.
- Krumich holds a 58.5% break point save rate and 44% convert rate, slightly edging Ferreira Silva's 60.4% save and 44.4% convert in a tight match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMartin KrumichEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Recent first-set trends for both players show a high frequency of 10+ game sets, supporting over 9.5 games.
- Krumich's last 5 first sets: 6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 — all but one had 10+ games.
- Ferreira Silva's last 5 first sets: 2-6, 4-6, 6-3, 3-6, 4-6 — four of five had 10+ games.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 68%, indicating holds are common but breaks occur.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
The combination of competitive recent matches and clay-court dynamics makes a total exceeding 21.5 games likely.
- Krumich's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games; Ferreira Silva's averaged 20.6, but his losses often went over 21.5.
- Both players have similar break point stats (save ~59-60%, convert ~44%), suggesting competitive sets with multiple breaks.
- Clay surface typically produces longer rallies and more games, especially in Bo3 qualifying matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Ferreira Silva's competitiveness in recent matches, even in defeat, makes him likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Ferreira Silva's recent losses have been close: 13-14 vs Pavlovic, 7-12 vs Wallin, 18-17 vs Dodig.
- Krumich's wins are often by narrow margins: 17-14 vs Pieri, 16-14 vs Tobon, 17-17 vs Wazny.
- Even in a loss, Ferreira Silva is likely to keep the match within 3.5 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFrederico Ferreira Silva +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While Ferreira Silva's second sets have been efficient, Krumich's tendency for tighter second sets on clay pushes the probability slightly over 9.5.
- Krumich's last 5 second sets: 4-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 4-6 — three of five had 10+ games.
- Ferreira Silva's last 5 second sets: 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 — all had 9 or 10 games, with three at exactly 9.
- If the match is competitive, second sets often tighten; clay amplifies this trend.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Krumich's high first-set conversion rate and Ferreira Silva's recent slow starts tilt the opening set slightly toward Krumich.
- Krumich's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating he often starts strong when he wins.
- Ferreira Silva's first-set win conversion is 88%, but his recent first sets include losses to Pavlovic (2-6) and Wallin (4-6).
- No H2H data; both players have similar serve/return stats, making the first set a coin flip with slight home advantage for Krumich.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMartin KrumichEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low ace rates for both players on clay make under 7.5 total aces the most probable outcome.
- Krumich's ace rate is 4.7% (career 1184 aces in 376 matches, ~3.1 per match); Ferreira Silva's is 4.1% (1984 in 899, ~2.2 per match).
- On clay, ace counts drop due to slower surface; both players rely more on rallying than big serves.
- Combined average aces per match for both is around 5-6, well under 7.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While career averages are below 5.5, the clay surface and pressure of qualifying could push the total slightly over.
- Krumich's double fault rate is 3.9% (990 in 376 matches, ~2.6 per match); Ferreira Silva's is 2.8% (1385 in 899, ~1.5 per match).
- Combined average is ~4.1 per match, but clay rallies can pressure second serves, increasing double faults.
- Recent matches: Krumich had 3 DF vs Pieri, 2 vs Balshaw; Ferreira Silva had 2 vs Pavlovic, 1 vs Wallin.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Martin Krumich #282Czechia2Frederico Ferreira Silva #231Portugal0

Player Profiles

Martin Krumich

Frederico Ferreira Silva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Over 21.5

Frederico Ferreira Silva +3.5

Martin Krumich

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Martin Krumich

Frederico Ferreira Silva