Maria Kozyreva #632Russia00 – 2Alevtina Ibragimova #271Russia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07

The read

Ibragimova's superior recent form, clay-court pedigree, and higher ranking give her a clear edge over Kozyreva, who has struggled mightily in recent months.

• Ibragimova has a 60.6% career win rate vs Kozyreva's 56.8%.
• Ibragimova's recent form: 8-7 in last 15, with 4 wins in last 5 matches; Kozyreva is 2-13 in last 15, losing last 5.
• On clay, Ibragimova has 76 career wins vs Kozyreva's 29, and Ibragimova is 13-9 on clay in 2026 vs Kozyreva's 0-2.
• Ibragimova's first-set win conversion is 88% vs Kozyreva's 86%, and Ibragimova has a higher tiebreak win rate (59% vs 45%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33

The read

Both players' recent set 1 results trend toward quick outcomes, making under 9.5 games likely.

• In Kozyreva's last 5 matches, set 1 averaged 8.2 games.
• In Ibragimova's last 5 wins, set 1 averaged 8.4 games.
• Kozyreva has lost set 1 by scores of 6-2, 6-2, 7-5, 6-1, 3-6 recently, with 4 of 5 under 9.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Kozyreva's recent one-sided defeats and Ibragimova's efficient wins point to a relatively short match under 20.5 games.

• Kozyreva's last 5 losses averaged 17.6 total games per match.
• Ibragimova's last 5 wins averaged 18.8 total games per match.
• Both players have low ace rates (1.9%) and moderate double-fault rates, leading to quicker points.
• Clay-court matches can be longer, but Kozyreva's recent blowout losses (6-1 6-1, 6-3 6-1) suggest short matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Ibragimova's dominant wins and Kozyreva's heavy defeats suggest Ibragimova will cover a -3.5 game handicap.

• Kozyreva's average game differential in last 5 losses: -6.8 games.
• Ibragimova's average game differential in last 5 wins: +6.2 games.
• Kozyreva has covered +3.5 in only 2 of her last 10 losses.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The trend of quick second sets, especially from Ibragimova, supports under 9.5 games in set 2.

• Kozyreva's last 5 set 2 results: 6-4, 6-3, 6-1, 7-6, 6-2 — 3 of 5 under 9.5.
• Ibragimova's last 5 set 2 results: 6-2, 6-0, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3 — all under 9.5.
• Combined, 8 of last 10 set 2s for both players went under 9.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18

The read

Both players' recent patterns strongly favor straight-set outcomes, making under 2.5 sets the most probable result.

• Kozyreva's last 10 losses: 8 were in straight sets.
• Ibragimova's last 10 wins: 8 were in straight sets.
• Kozyreva's deciding-set win rate is only 45%, and she has played only 1 three-setter in her last 15 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.10

The read

Ibragimova's strong start tendency and Kozyreva's poor recent opening sets make Ibragimova the likely set 1 winner.

• Ibragimova has won the first set in 7 of her last 10 matches; Kozyreva has lost the first set in 8 of her last 10.
• Ibragimova's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, indicating strong front-running.
• Kozyreva's recent first-set performances: lost 6-2, 6-2, 7-5, 6-1, 3-6 in last 5 matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Ibragimova's momentum and Kozyreva's fading form suggest Ibragimova will also take set 2, though with less certainty than set 1.

• Ibragimova has won the second set in 6 of her last 10 completed matches.
• Kozyreva has lost the second set in 7 of her last 10 matches.
• Ibragimova's win-on-second-serve percentage (45.8%) is slightly lower than Kozyreva's (47.7%), but Ibragimova's break-point conversion (51.1%) is higher.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Low ace rates for both players on a slow surface make under 5.5 total aces highly probable.

• Both players have a career ace rate of 1.9%.
• In their last 15 matches, Kozyreva averaged 1.2 aces per match, Ibragimova 1.5.
• Clay courts typically reduce ace counts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80

The read

The low frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches suggests a tiebreak is unlikely.

• Kozyreva has played only 2 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches.
• Ibragimova has played 2 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches.
• Both players' recent sets have been decided by breaks rather than tiebreaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Moderate double-fault rates and potential pressure on serve could push the total over 7.5, though confidence is low.

• Kozyreva's double-fault rate is 4.8%, Ibragimova's is 5.2%.
• In recent matches, Kozyreva averaged 3.1 double faults, Ibragimova 3.4.
• Combined average of 6.5 double faults per match, but clay can increase errors.