Jacob Fearnley #159United Kingdom22 – 1Adam Walton #85Australia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Fearnley's tendency to engage in long matches, combined with Walton's strong serve, points to a match exceeding 22.5 games.

• Fearnley's last three matches all went to three sets, averaging 29.3 games per match.
• Walton's matches this week averaged 21.3 games, but Fearnley's resilience suggests a tighter contest.
• Both players have similar hold/break profiles, indicating potential for extended games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Fearnley's competitiveness and recent close matches make him likely to stay within 3.5 games of Walton.

• Fearnley's last three matches were decided by 4, 6, and 4 games respectively.
• Walton's largest margin of victory this week was 8 games, but Fearnley is a tougher opponent.
• Fearnley has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

With both players serving well, the first set is likely to be tight and exceed 9.5 games.

• Fearnley's last four first sets have averaged 10.5 games.
• Walton's last three first sets have averaged 9.7 games.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages above 72%, making breaks less likely.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Even if Walton wins in straight sets, the second set is likely to be closely contested, pushing the total over 9.5 games.

• Fearnley's last five second sets have averaged 10.2 games.
• Walton's last five second sets have averaged 9.4 games.
• The match is expected to be competitive, reducing the chance of a lopsided set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88

The read

Walton's strong serving and recent trend of winning first sets make him likely to take the opener against a potentially fatigued Fearnley.

• Walton has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches.
• Fearnley lost the first set in his last two matches, both against lower-ranked opponents.
• Walton's first-serve points won (77.23%) in Newport suggests he can start strongly.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Walton's ace-heavy game and the grass surface should push the combined ace total over 12.5.

• Walton leads the tournament with 21 aces through four matches (5.25 per match).
• Fearnley's ace rate is 7.2%, but he has served 8 aces in his last two matches.
• Grass courts typically produce higher ace counts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Despite Fearnley's higher double fault rate, the combined total is likely to stay under 8.5 given Walton's reliability.

• Walton's double fault rate is low at 3.1%.
• Fearnley's double fault rate is higher at 7%, but he averaged only 2.5 double faults per match this week.
• Both players have been relatively consistent on serve in Newport.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The serve-oriented nature of both players on grass increases the likelihood of at least one tiebreak.

• Fearnley has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Walton has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 4 matches.
• Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 50%, indicating evenness in tight moments.