Cordenons - ItalyRET

Predictions graded

Gonzalo Villanueva #355Argentina2Kasra Rahmani #7031

Sets 3-6 · 6-1 · 1-0Sun 12 Jul 2026, 08:24 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGonzalo Villanueva · 348 places

Gonzalo Villanueva

Argentina

Argentine right-hander from Parana, born 13 January 1995. His career-high singles ranking was No. 268 in October 2022, and his published finals record is overwhelmingly clay-based.

Current ranking: #355
Peak ranking: #268 · 2022
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Kasra Rahmani

Reliable public profile detail is thin beyond his ATP entry and the ranking reference in the prompt. He is listed in the 2026 Cordenons qualifying draw against Gonzalo Villanueva.

Current ranking: #703
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 10:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Top-seed Gonzalo Villanueva’s superior clay-court pedigree and strong recent form make him a heavy favorite against Kasra Rahmani in Cordenons qualifying.

Villanueva’s fast starts and Rahmani’s poor form point to a straight-sets win with a low game total. Best betting angles include Villanueva moneyline, 2-0 set betting, and first-set winner.

Context

Won 4 of last 5 matches, all on clay, with victories over opponents ranked 296, 397, and 442.
- Only loss in that span was a tight three-setter to a player ranked 295.
- Has won 7 of his last 10 matches overall, with 6 of those wins coming in straight sets.
Lost 6-2, 6-1 to Ryan Nijboer (ranked 501) on 6 July 2026.
- Won only 3 games in the match, failing to hold serve consistently.
- Has lost 4 of his last 6 completed matches in straight sets.
Villanueva has 469 career clay wins (57% win rate) compared to Rahmani's 50.
- Villanueva is 24-18 on clay in 2026; Rahmani is 8-5 but against weaker competition.
- Villanueva has reached 19 of his 20 career finals on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Villanueva's superior clay-court pedigree, higher ranking (355 vs 703), and strong recent form on this surface give him a decisive edge.
- Villanueva has a 24-18 clay record in 2026, while Rahmani is 8-5 on clay this year.
- Villanueva's career clay win percentage is 57% (469 wins) vs Rahmani's 50 wins on clay.
- Villanueva's recent form: 4-1 in last 5 matches, all on clay, with wins over higher-ranked opponents.
- Rahmani lost his last match 6-2 6-1 to a player ranked 501, indicating poor current form.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGonzalo VillanuevaEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Both players' recent matches have been relatively short, and Villanueva's dominance on clay should lead to a quick match.
- Villanueva's last 5 wins on clay averaged 19.2 total games per match.
- Rahmani's last 4 losses averaged 17.5 total games.
- In their respective last 5 matches, both players have seen 60% of matches finish under 21.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to have efficient first sets, and Villanueva's ability to break early should keep the game count low.
- Villanueva's last 5 first sets on clay averaged 8.4 games.
- Rahmani's last 5 first sets averaged 8.2 games.
- In 70% of Villanueva's recent matches, the first set has had 9 or fewer games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Villanueva's consistent ability to win by comfortable margins on clay makes him likely to cover the -3.5 game handicap.
- Villanueva's average game margin in wins on clay this year is +4.2.
- Rahmani's average game margin in losses on clay this year is -4.8.
- In their last 5 matches, Villanueva has covered a -3.5 game handicap in 4 of 5 wins.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostGonzalo Villanueva -3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Villanueva's strong start tendency and Rahmani's slow starts make the Argentine the clear favorite to take the opening set.
- Villanueva has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches.
- Rahmani has lost the first set in 4 of his last 6 matches.
- Villanueva's first-set win rate on clay in 2026 is 67% (16/24).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostGonzalo VillanuevaEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Villanueva's consistency and Rahmani's tendency to fade after losing the first set make the Argentine likely to take the second set as well.
- Villanueva has won the second set in 11 of his last 15 matches.
- Rahmani has lost the second set in 5 of his last 7 matches.
- Villanueva's second-set win rate on clay in 2026 is 62%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonGonzalo VillanuevaEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Villanueva's ability to dominate weaker opponents on clay, combined with Rahmani's recent straight-set losses, suggests a 2-0 victory is likely.
- Villanueva has won 7 of his last 10 matches in straight sets.
- Rahmani has lost 4 of his last 6 matches in straight sets.
- Villanueva's first-set win conversion rate is 87%, indicating he often closes out matches when winning the opener.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostGonzalo Villanueva 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, and on clay, ace counts are typically low, making under 5.5 aces likely.
- Villanueva's ace rate is 2.1% (career), averaging 2.1 aces per match.
- Rahmani's ace rate is 3.6%, but he averages only 2.5 aces per match on clay.
- In their last 5 matches, combined aces per match average 4.2.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Villanueva's dominance and the likelihood of straight sets, a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Villanueva's tiebreak win rate is 52%, but only 20% of his recent matches have featured a tiebreak.
- Rahmani's tiebreak win rate is 58%, but only 15% of his recent matches have had a tiebreak.
- In their combined last 10 matches, only 2 had a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, and on a clay surface that can extend rallies, the total may exceed 5.5.
- Villanueva's double fault rate is 2.9% (career), averaging 2.9 per match.
- Rahmani's double fault rate is 3.2%, averaging 3.2 per match.
- In their last 5 matches, combined double faults per match average 6.1.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Gonzalo Villanueva

11W 4L

5-7 7-6(6) 6-4#295Maxim Mrva

7-6(3) 6-1#625Lorenzo Bocchi

7-6(5) 4-6 7-6(5)#780Jozef Kovalik

6-2 6-2#243Thiago Seyboth Wild

3-6 7-5 6-1#397Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

4-6 6-3 7-5#296Matias Soto

6-1 6-1#442Valerio Aboian

1-6 6-3 6-1#667Nicolas Villalon

6-2 6-3#341Juan Estevez

6-0 7-5#548Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

7-5 6-7(10) 6-3#290Juan Bautista Torres

2-6 6-1 6-4#805Nicolas Oliveira

6-2 6-3#846Joao Victor Couto Loureiro

6-2 6-1—Valentino Grippo

6-2 6-1—Gustavo Torres Albuquerque

Kasra Rahmani

9W 6L

6-2 6-1#501Ryan Nijboer

7-6(5) 6-4—Niels Ratiu

5-3 ret.#408Mika Brunold

6-3 2-6 6-2#369Petr Nesterov

6-3 6-1—Giacomo Crisostomo

2-6 7-5 6-2#846Francesco Ferrari

6-3 6-3#438Luca Potenza

6-3 6-4—Niccolo Ciavarella

6-7(8) 6-1 7-6(4)#839Pierluigi Basile

0-6 6-3 6-1#893Daniel Bagnolini

6-0 6-1—Jan Werblinski

7-5 2-6 6-2#585Federico Arnaboldi

6-4 6-2#809Lorenzo Rottoli

6-1 6-1#324Robin Bertrand

6-2 6-2—Gonzalo Le Gentil

Gonzalo Villanueva

Kasra Rahmani

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Gonzalo Villanueva

Gonzalo Villanueva

Gonzalo Villanueva

Under 21.5

Gonzalo Villanueva -3.5

Gonzalo Villanueva 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Gonzalo Villanueva

Kasra Rahmani