Aoi Ito vs Yasmine Mansouri: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Ito's superior hard-court pedigree and recent form against higher-ranked opponents give her a structural edge, despite Mansouri's current winning streak in qualifying.
- Ito's career hard-court win percentage is 63.6% (150-86) vs Mansouri's 53.4% (210-183), showing a clear surface edge.
- Ito's recent form against top-100 opponents includes a tight 3-set loss to #67 Yastremska, while Mansouri's best recent win is over unranked players.
- Ito's first-serve win percentage (58.7%) and return points won (48%) are slightly better than Mansouri's (64% and 45%), but Ito's higher first-serve percentage (70.2% vs 59.1%) gives her more consistency.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAoi ItoEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mansouri's ability to keep matches close, even in losses, makes her +3.5 games a strong play.
- Ito's recent losses have been by an average of 5.6 games, but her wins have been by an average of 6.5 games.
- Mansouri's recent wins have been by an average of 5.2 games, and her losses by an average of 6.8 games.
- In their last 15 matches, Ito has covered a -3.5 handicap in only 4 matches, while Mansouri has covered +3.5 in 11 of 15.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostYasmine Mansouri +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match data shows both players are involved in competitive, longer matches, making over 20.5 games likely.
- Ito's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 20.5.
- Mansouri's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 20.5.
- Both players have shown the ability to extend sets, with Ito playing 3 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches and Mansouri playing 4.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players holding serve at a moderate rate, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Ito's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Mansouri's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 60%, suggesting few easy holds.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Similar to the first set, the second set is expected to be tight, with both players capable of breaking serve.
- Ito's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Mansouri's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 47-50%, indicating they can break but also get broken.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Ito's high first-set win conversion rate and superior serve consistency make her the favorite to take the opening set.
- Ito has won the first set in 89% of her career wins, indicating strong early-match performance.
- Mansouri's first-set win conversion is 84%, but her recent opponents have been significantly lower-ranked.
- Ito's first-serve percentage (70.2%) and win rate on first serve (58.7%) should help her start strong on hard courts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAoi ItoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The match could go the distance given both players' tendency to play three-setters and their comparable break-point stats.
- Ito has gone to 3 sets in 4 of her last 15 matches, while Mansouri has done so in 5 of her last 15.
- Ito's deciding-set win percentage is 57%, and Mansouri's is 45%, suggesting a competitive third set if it occurs.
- Both players have similar break-point save rates (54.5% vs 54.6%), indicating potential for extended rallies and sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double-fault rates, and their combined average easily exceeds 7.5 per match.
- Mansouri's double-fault rate is 6.3% (career 1417 DFs in 506 matches), averaging ~5.6 DFs per match.
- Ito's double-fault rate is 4.5% (career 812 DFs in 291 matches), averaging ~5.6 DFs per match.
- Combined, they average over 11 double faults per match, making over 7.5 highly likely.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mansouri's higher ace rate and the possibility of a three-set match push the total aces over 5.5.
- Mansouri's ace rate is 3.7% (career 822 aces in 506 matches), averaging ~3.5 aces per match.
- Ito's ace rate is 1.5% (career 276 aces in 291 matches), averaging ~1.5 aces per match.
- Combined, they average around 5 aces per match, and with a potentially longer match, over 5.5 is plausible.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and both players' history of tiebreaks make a tiebreak likely.
- Ito has played 3 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches, while Mansouri has played 4 in her last 15.
- Ito's tiebreak win percentage is 44%, and Mansouri's is 51%, indicating they are evenly matched in tiebreaks.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 60%, which can lead to tight sets and tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Aoi Ito #228Japan2Yasmine Mansouri #389France0

Player Profiles

Aoi Ito

Yasmine Mansouri

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Aoi Ito

Aoi Ito

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Aoi Ito @ 1.30

Aoi Ito

Yasmine Mansouri