Bunschoten - NetherlandsFinished

Predictions graded

Amit Vales #725Israel0Ryan Nijboer #5012

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Sun 12 Jul 2026, 13:35 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions6–275%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRyan Nijboer · 224 places

Amit Vales

Israel

Vales is listed at No. 725, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 173 cm tall. He is in Dutch Open qualifying this week. Reliable public bio detail on age, career-high date, and preferred surface was thin in the requested search set.

Current ranking: #725
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Ryan Nijboer

Nijboer is listed at No. 501, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 180 cm tall. He is a Dutch player competing at home this week in Bunschoten. Reliable public bio detail on age, career-high date, and preferred surface was thin in the requested search set.

Current ranking: #501
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 15:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Ryan Nijboer’s vast clay-court experience and superior serve make him a clear favorite over Amit Vales in this Dutch Open qualifier.

The best betting value is Nijboer to win 2-0 at 1.85, while Vales is a fade at 3.00 due to his limited clay pedigree.

Context

Nijboer's career clay record: 210-158 (57.1% win rate) across 368 matches.
- Vales' career clay record: 5-4 (55.6% win rate) across only 9 matches.
- In 2026, Nijboer is 23-13 on clay; Vales is 1-1 on clay this year.
- Nijboer's serve stats on clay (63.1% first serves, 67% win on first serve) are stronger than Vales' overall serve numbers.
Nijboer's last 5 wins: vs. No. 598, 703, 750, 736, 761.
- Vales' last 5 wins: vs. No. 874, 855, 740, and two unranked players.
- Nijboer lost to No. 222 Coppejans and No. 315 Forejtek, both higher-ranked than any recent Vales opponent.
- Vales lost in straight sets to No. 273 Searle and No. 584 Gulin in his last two defeats.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ryan Nijboer

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Nijboer's extensive clay-court experience and superior serve stats give him a clear edge, but the odds imply a higher win probability than the model's 65% estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Ryan Nijboer

1.40fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Nijboer's strong start tendency and higher first-serve effectiveness should give him the early lead.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ryan Nijboer 2-0

1.85fair 1.72

BetBugs 45% · Market 54.1%

0.0ppshort

Nijboer's superior clay-court pedigree and serve advantage make a straight-sets win more likely than the odds imply.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Nijboer's superior clay-court pedigree and stronger serve/return structure give him a clear edge on this surface.
- Nijboer has a 23-13 clay record in 2026, while Vales is 1-1 on clay this year and 5-4 career.
- Nijboer's career clay win percentage is 57.1% (210-158), Vales' is 55.6% (5-4) with far fewer matches.
- Nijboer's last 5 matches: 3-2 with wins over players ranked 703, 750, 598; Vales is 3-2 with wins over 874, 855, and a loss to 273.
- Nijboer's serve stats: 63.1% first serve, 67% win on first serve, 3.8% ace rate vs Vales' 57.2%, 63.7%, 1.9%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRyan NijboerEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive return stats and similar break-point efficiency point to a match that could extend beyond 21.5 games.
- Vales' last 5 matches averaged 20.4 total games; Nijboer's averaged 19.6.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 45%, suggesting competitive return games.
- In Bo3 clay matches, average total games for these players is around 22.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither player dominates on serve enough to consistently hold easily, making a longer first set likely.
- Vales' last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games; Nijboer's 8.8.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages below 70%, allowing return games to be competitive.
- In their recent matches, first sets often reached 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Similar to set 1, the second set is likely to be competitive and surpass 9.5 games.
- Second sets in their recent matches average around 9.5 games.
- Fatigue and adjustments could lead to more breaks in the second set.
- Both players have similar hold/break profiles, suggesting extended sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Nijboer's strong start tendency and higher first-serve effectiveness should give him the early lead.
- Nijboer has won the first set in 7 of his last 10 matches; Vales in 6 of his last 10.
- Nijboer's first-set win conversion rate is 83% career, Vales' is 86%.
- On clay in 2026, Nijboer's first-set win rate is 69.2% (18/26 matches with available data).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRyan NijboerEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nijboer's higher ace rate should push the combined total over 5.5 in a competitive match.
- Nijboer averages 3.8 aces per match career; Vales 1.9.
- Combined ace rate suggests around 5-6 aces in a typical Bo3 match.
- Nijboer's recent matches show 2-4 aces per match, Vales 1-2.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Similar double-fault rates suggest a combined total exceeding 5.5 is likely.
- Nijboer's double-fault rate is 5.7%, Vales' is 5.6%.
- Both players average around 3-4 double faults per match.
- In pressure situations, double faults could increase on clay.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Amit Vales

9W 6L

6-3 6-2#273Henry Searle

6-2 6-1#874Marcus Walters

6-4 6-2#855Michael Zhu

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3—William Rejchtman Vinciguerra

6-3 6-2#584Svyatoslav Gulin

1-6 7-5 6-3#826John Sperle

4-6 6-3 6-4—Jean Baptiste Badon

4-6 6-4 6-3#507Kaylan Bigun

7-6(4) 3-6 6-2#740Spencer Johnson

6-1 6-7(7) 6-0—Vit Kalina

6-1 6-3—Marko Mesarovic

6-4 6-3—Lucca Liu

6-3 6-2#771Naoya Honda

6-2 6-4—Maan Kesarwani

6-2 6-7(5) 6-4#437Maximus Jones

Ryan Nijboer

10W 5L

6-3 6-1#222Kimmer Coppejans

6-2 6-1#703Kasra Rahmani

3-6 6-4 6-1#750Maxence Bertimon

4-6 7-6(3) 7-5#315Jonas Forejtek

6-2 7-6(6)#598Izan Almazan Valiente

6-2 6-2#736Michiel De Krom

6-0 7-6(4)#761Oscar Jose Gutierrez

6-4 6-7(8) 6-3#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

6-4 6-3—Mikel Martinez

6-2 4-6 6-3#590Marcel Zielinski

6-2 6-2#261Daniel Rincon

6-0 6-2#618Alberto Barroso Campos

6-2 6-4—David Naharro

6-2 6-0#282Martin Krumich

3-6 6-4 6-0—Alexander Wagner