Amandine Hesse #401France11 – 2Yelyzaveta Kotliar #451Ukraine2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Kotliar's stronger clay-court form in 2026 and recent high-quality wins give her a slight edge over Hesse, whose recent losses to lower-ranked opponents raise concerns.

• Kotliar has a 25-14 clay record in 2026 (64% win rate) vs Hesse's 8-7 (53%)
• Kotliar's recent form includes a win over #106 Francesca Jones and competitive losses to top-100 players
• Hesse's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses, but losses were to #109 Sherif and #198 Vedder, showing vulnerability
• Kotliar's break point conversion rate (52.2%) edges Hesse's (47.7%)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Recent match data for both players indicates a pattern of competitive, extended contests, making over 20.5 total games likely.

• Hesse's last 5 matches averaged 19.6 total games, with 3 exceeding 20.5
• Kotliar's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 total games, with 4 exceeding 20.5
• Both players have shown competitive sets in recent outings, with multiple tiebreaks and close scorelines

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets in recent matches for both players have frequently exceeded 8.5 games, suggesting this trend will continue.

• Hesse's last 5 second sets averaged 8.6 games, with 3 over 8.5
• Kotliar's last 5 second sets averaged 9.0 games, with 4 over 8.5
• Even in straight-set matches, second sets have often been competitive for both players

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Kotliar's tendency to start matches strongly, combined with Hesse's recent first-set struggles, suggests Kotliar is slightly more likely to take the opener.

• Kotliar has won the first set in 4 of her last 5 completed matches
• Hesse lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches
• Kotliar's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating strong starts

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates, making it unlikely they will combine for more than 5 aces in this match.

• Hesse averages 5.1% ace rate, translating to roughly 2-3 aces per match
• Kotliar averages only 0.5% ace rate, rarely hitting aces
• Combined, their ace rates suggest a low total ace count

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' elevated double fault rates, the total double faults are likely to exceed 7.5 in a competitive match.

• Hesse has a 6.2% double fault rate, averaging 3-4 per match
• Kotliar has a 7.2% double fault rate, averaging 4-5 per match
• Combined, their double fault rates project to around 8-9 per match