ATP UmagFinished

Predictions graded

Raul Brancaccio #248Italy1Federico Agustin Gomez #212Argentina2

Sets 7-5 · 2-6 · 4-6Sat 11 Jul 2026, 16:32 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions5–456%

Edges5–271%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFederico Agustin Gomez · 36 places

Raul Brancaccio

Italy

Italian right-hander born in 1997. Career-high No. 121 came on 13 February 2023, and his published singles title history is heavily weighted toward clay. He entered Umag with the structured-data ranking of No. 248.

Current ranking: #248
Peak ranking: #121 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Federico Agustin Gomez

Argentina

Argentine right-hander born in 1996. Career-high singles No. 133 came on 3 February 2025, and his publicly listed singles Challenger titles are mostly on clay. He entered Umag with the structured-data ranking of No. 212.

Current ranking: #212
Peak ranking: #133 · 2025
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Jul 2026, 09:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Brancaccio's superior clay-court pedigree and recent form give him a slight edge, but the match is likely to be tight, with value on over 2.5 sets at 2.30 and over 9.5 games in each set.

Avoid the game handicap on Gomez +3.5 due to his poor form and Brancaccio's potential for comfortable wins.

Context

Brancaccio beat Andrea Pellegrino (ranked 133) and Franco Agamenone (268) in his last five matches.
- Gomez lost to Henry Bernet (458) and Clement Tabur (189) in the same span.
- Brancaccio's last five record is 3-2; Gomez's is 1-4.
Brancaccio is 20-16 on clay in 2026; Gomez is 5-9.
- Career clay win percentage: Brancaccio 64.5% (309-170), Gomez 58.5% (141-100).
- Brancaccio's return points won (43%) and break point conversion (45%) are higher than Gomez's (39% and 42%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Brancaccio's superior clay-court pedigree and recent form against stronger opposition give him a clear edge in this qualifying match.
- Brancaccio has a 20-16 clay record in 2026, while Gomez is 5-9 on clay this year.
- Brancaccio's career clay win percentage is 309-170 (64.5%), Gomez is 141-100 (58.5%).
- In the last 5 matches, Brancaccio is 3-2 with wins over Pellegrino (133) and Agamenone (268); Gomez is 1-4 with losses to Bernet (458) and Tabur (189).
- Brancaccio's return points won (43%) and break point conversion (45%) exceed Gomez's 39% and 42%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRaul BrancaccioEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent matches and the likelihood of a tight contest push the total games over 21.5.
- Brancaccio's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games; Gomez's last 5 averaged 20.4 games.
- Both players have a high rate of three-set matches: Brancaccio 7 of last 15, Gomez 6 of last 15.
- In clay-court matches this year, Brancaccio's average total games is 22.1, Gomez's is 21.3.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Gomez's competitive losses and Brancaccio's narrow wins suggest the underdog will keep the match close enough to cover the handicap.
- Gomez's last 5 losses were by margins of 5, 5, 5, 5, and 8 games, but 4 of those were against top-200 opponents.
- Brancaccio's last 5 wins were by margins of 2, 1, 6, 6, and 2 games, with only two blowouts.
- In their last 15 matches, Gomez has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 10 of 15.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFederico Agustin Gomez +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The competitive nature of the matchup and recent first-set trends point to a first set with at least 10 games.
- Brancaccio's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 3-6, 7-6, 2-6, 6-1 (average 10.2 games).
- Gomez's last 5 first sets: 3-6, 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 3-6 (average 9.4 games).
- In their last 15 matches, 60% of first sets for both players have exceeded 9.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Second sets in their recent matches have consistently been tight, supporting an over 9.5 games prediction.
- Brancaccio's last 5 second sets: 1-6, 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 2-1 ret. (average 9.2 games, but excluding retirement: 10.0).
- Gomez's last 5 second sets: 7-6, 4-6, 1-6, 4-6, 5-7 (average 10.2 games).
- In their last 15 matches, 65% of second sets for both players have exceeded 9.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Brancaccio's tendency to start strong, combined with Gomez's slow starts, makes him the likely first-set winner.
- Brancaccio has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches, including against higher-ranked opponents.
- Gomez has lost the first set in 9 of his last 15 matches, often against lower-ranked players.
- Brancaccio's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating strong front-running ability.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRaul BrancaccioEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches for both players suggests a strong chance this match will also go to a deciding set.
- Brancaccio's last 15 matches: 7 went to three sets.
- Gomez's last 15 matches: 6 went to three sets.
- Combined, 43% of their recent matches have gone the distance.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both players have elevated double fault rates, making it likely they will combine for over 5.5 double faults.
- Brancaccio's double fault rate is 4.7%, Gomez's is 5.6%.
- In their last 5 matches, Brancaccio averaged 3.2 double faults, Gomez 3.0.
- Combined, their recent double fault averages total 6.2 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Market price1.85Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Raul Brancaccio

6W 9L

7-6(5) 6-1#208Matej Dodig

3-6 6-4 6-3#133Andrea Pellegrino

7-6(3) 3-6 6-3#268Franco Agamenone

6-2 7-6(1)#195Marco Cecchinato

6-1 2-1 ret.#111Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-5 6-3#136Arthur Gea

6-3 6-4#110Sebastian Ofner

6-4 3-6 6-3#163Roberto Carballes Baena

6-2 6-4#209Liam Broady

7-6(4) 7-6(4)#839Pierluigi Basile

7-6(5) 4-6 6-1#99Alexander Shevchenko

6-0 5-7 6-2#271Diego Dedura

6-2 4-6 7-6(5)#109Stan Wawrinka

0-6 6-2 6-2#189Clement Tabur

6-4 3-6 6-3#330Tyler Zink

Federico Agustin Gomez

5W 10L

6-3 6-7(10) 6-3#458Henry Bernet

6-4 4-6 6-4#359Enrico Dalla Valle

6-4 6-1#141Gustavo Heide

6-3 6-4#189Clement Tabur

6-3 7-5#148Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-6(3) 6-2#112Dalibor Svrcina

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#231Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-2 6-2#476Laurent Lokoli

6-4 7-6(5)#839Skander Mansouri

6-0 2-0 ret.#275Stefan Dostanic

6-2 6-1#192Michael Mmoh

6-3 1-1 ret.#224Darwin Blanch

1-6 6-1 6-4#32Tomas Martin Etcheverry

0-6 7-6(4) 6-2#189Clement Tabur

6-4 6-4#306Andres Martin

Raul Brancaccio

Federico Agustin Gomez

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Raul Brancaccio

Over 2.5

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Over 5.5

Federico Agustin Gomez +3.5

Over 21.5

Raul Brancaccio

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Federico Agustin Gomez +3.5 @ 1.45

Raul Brancaccio

Federico Agustin Gomez