ATP UmagFinished

Predictions graded

Lukas Neumayer #167Austria2Mili Poljicak #3471

Sets 6-4 · 4-6 · 6-4Sat 11 Jul 2026, 16:36 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLukas Neumayer · 180 places

Lukas Neumayer

Austria

Austrian right-hander born in 2002. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface, and his career-high singles ranking is No. 157 from August 2025. He won his first Challenger title in Barletta on clay in April 2026.

Current ranking: #167
Peak ranking: #157 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Mili Poljicak

Croatian right-hander born in 2004 and the 2022 Wimbledon boys' singles champion. His career-high singles ranking is No. 257 from June 2025. Clay is a reasonable fit based on his March 2026 Split Challenger title, but that surface preference is inferred from results rather than explicitly stated.

Current ranking: #347
Peak ranking: #257 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Jul 2026, 09:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Lukas Neumayer is the strong favorite on clay, backed by a 1-0 H2H record, a recent Challenger title, and superior return stats.

The best betting value is on Neumayer to win 2-0 at 2.00 and under 21.5 total games at 1.95, as Poljicak's recent form and second-serve weakness make a straight-set loss likely.

Context

Neumayer leads H2H 1-0 on clay, winning 6-4 6-4 in April 2025.
- He won 67% of first-serve points and converted 57% of break points in that match.
- Poljicak managed only 25% break point conversion and won 42% of second-serve points.
Neumayer's 2026 clay record is 24-9 (72.7%), including a Challenger title in Barletta in April 2026.
- Poljicak's 2026 clay record is 23-10 (69.7%), but he has lost to No. 498 and No. 360 in his last five matches.
- Neumayer has wins over top-250 opponents in his last five matches, while Poljicak's wins came against lower-ranked players.
Poljicak's career second-serve points won is 49%, compared to Neumayer's 52%.
- In their H2H, Poljicak won only 42% of second-serve points.
- Neumayer's return points won percentage is 42%, and he converts break points at 46%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Neumayer's superior clay pedigree, recent Challenger title, and direct H2H win on this surface give him a clear edge over Poljicak, who has struggled against lower-ranked opponents in recent weeks.
- Neumayer leads H2H 1-0 on clay (6-4 6-4 in April 2025), winning 67% first-serve points and converting 57% break points.
- Neumayer's 2026 clay record is 24-9 (72.7% win rate) vs Poljicak's 23-10 (69.7%); Neumayer won a Challenger title on clay in Barletta in April 2026.
- Neumayer's recent form (last 5): 3-2 with wins over top-250 opponents; Poljicak's last 5: 2-3 with losses to players ranked 498 and 360.
- Neumayer's career clay win percentage is 65.5% (190-100) vs Poljicak's 61.0% (122-78); Neumayer's return points won (42%) edges Poljicak's (41%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLukas NeumayerEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
With both players holding serve effectively on clay and Neumayer's ability to convert breaks efficiently, the match is likely to stay under 21.5 games, mirroring their H2H.
- Neumayer's last 5 wins on clay averaged 19.6 total games; Poljicak's last 5 losses averaged 20.2 total games.
- H2H match had 20 total games (6-4 6-4), and both players have high first-serve win percentages (65%+), leading to shorter points.
- Neumayer's recent matches: 17, 20, 20, 20, 26 games; Poljicak's: 31, 31, 22, 18, 24 games, but Poljicak's high-game matches were against stronger returners.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neumayer's ability to start strong and Poljicak's occasional slow starts could lead to a relatively quick first set, though the margin is thin.
- Neumayer's first-set average in last 5 clay wins: 9.2 games; Poljicak's first-set average in last 5 losses: 9.4 games.
- H2H first set was 10 games (6-4), but Neumayer's recent first sets have been tighter (7-5, 6-4, 6-4).
- Neumayer's first-serve points won (65%) and Poljicak's (70%) suggest few breaks, but Neumayer's return could create an early break.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Neumayer wins the first set, he is likely to maintain pressure and close out the second set efficiently, keeping the game count low.
- Neumayer's second-set average in last 5 clay wins: 9.0 games; Poljicak's second-set average in last 5 losses: 9.2 games.
- H2H second set was 10 games (6-4), and Neumayer's hold game is strong on clay (65% first-serve points won).
- Poljicak's second-serve points won (49%) is a vulnerability that Neumayer can exploit to close out the match.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Neumayer's strong first-set record and recent form suggest he will start aggressively and take the opener, leveraging his return game and clay-court experience.
- Neumayer's first-set win conversion rate is 80% career, and he won the first set in his only H2H meeting vs Poljicak.
- In his last 5 matches, Neumayer won the first set in 3 of 5, while Poljicak won the first set in only 2 of his last 5.
- Neumayer's first-serve points won (65%) and break-point conversion (46%) are higher than Poljicak's (70% and 43%), but Neumayer's return game is more consistent on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLukas NeumayerEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Neumayer's dominance in straight-set wins on clay and Poljicak's recent struggles in three-setters make a 2-0 result likely.
- Neumayer's straight-set win rate on clay in 2026 is 70.8% (17 of 24 wins); Poljicak's straight-set loss rate on clay in 2026 is 60% (6 of 10 losses).
- H2H was a straight-set win for Neumayer, and his first-set win conversion rate is 80%.
- Poljicak's deciding-set win rate is 55%, but he has lost his last two three-set matches on clay.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Neumayer's ability to close out matches in straight sets on clay, combined with Poljicak's recent form, points to a 2-0 victory.
- Neumayer's straight-set win rate on clay in 2026: 70.8%; Poljicak's straight-set loss rate on clay in 2026: 60%.
- H2H was 2-0 to Neumayer, and his first-set win conversion rate is 80%.
- Poljicak's recent three-set matches have been losses, and his fitness may be tested after a heavy schedule.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostLukas Neumayer 2-0Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Neumayer's ability to break serve and his recent avoidance of tiebreaks suggest the match will be decided without a tiebreak.
- Neumayer's tiebreak win rate is 57% career, but his recent matches have had few tiebreaks (1 in last 10).
- Poljicak's tiebreak win rate is 47%, and he has played 3 tiebreaks in his last 10 matches.
- H2H had no tiebreaks, and both players have strong hold games on clay, but Neumayer's return game is superior.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poljicak's higher ace rate and Neumayer's occasional aces could push the total over 5.5, though it's a borderline call given the clay surface.
- Poljicak's ace rate is 6.4% (career), and he hit 2 aces in the H2H; Neumayer's ace rate is 2.8%.
- In recent matches, Poljicak averaged 3.2 aces per match; Neumayer averaged 1.8 aces.
- Combined, they could reach 5+ aces, especially if the match extends to 20+ games.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and a competitive match could lead to over 5.5 double faults, though it's a close call.
- Neumayer's double-fault rate is 3.2% (career), and he had 4 double faults in the H2H; Poljicak's rate is 2.6%.
- In recent matches, Neumayer averaged 2.4 double faults per match; Poljicak averaged 1.8.
- Combined, they could reach 6+ double faults if the match is tight and pressure increases.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 6-4Lukas Neumayer#167vMili Poljicak#347Apr 21, 2025

1 total meetings

Lukas Neumayer

10W 5L

6-2 6-3#235Henri Squire

6-4 5-7 6-4#238Guido Ivan Justo

6-4 6-3#250Andrej Nedic

6-4 6-4#153Dusan Lajovic

3-6 6-1 6-4#353Florian Broska

6-4 6-3#203Taro Daniel

7-5 6-4#719Michal Krajci

6-2 6-2#368Jacopo Vasami

5-7 6-2 7-6(4)#229Chun Hsin Tseng

6-4 7-6(3)#187Remy Bertola

6-2 6-3#191Tristan Boyer

7-6(6) 6-4#421Li Tu

6-3 7-6(9)#98Jaime Faria

6-1 6-3#233Alejandro Moro Canas

6-0 6-1#152Alex Bolt

Mili Poljicak

8W 7L

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#498Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-4 3-6 7-5#219Sumit Nagal

7-6(8) 6-3#360Andrey Chepelev

6-2 6-4#658Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-2 3-6 6-1—Bozo Barun

1-6 6-2 6-3#281Duje Ajdukovic

6-4 7-5#360Andrey Chepelev

6-3 7-5—Noah Karma

6-4 6-1—Frano Sucic

6-1 6-2#250Andrej Nedic

6-3 2-6 6-3#295Maxim Mrva

7-6(2) 6-1#431Lucas Poullain

7-6(5) 6-7(2) 7-5#343Dominic Stricker

6-0 6-1#255Buvaysar Gadamauri

7-5 6-1#448Denis Yevseyev

Lukas Neumayer

Mili Poljicak

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Lukas Neumayer

Under 21.5

Lukas Neumayer 2-0

Lukas Neumayer

Under 2.5

No

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Lukas Neumayer

Mili Poljicak