Federico Cina #174Italy22 – 0Patrick Zahraj #401Germany0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10

The read

Cina's higher ranking, stronger clay-court record, and better recent form against quality opposition give him a clear edge in this Bo3 qualifying match.

• Cina is ranked #174 vs Zahraj #401, a significant 227-place gap.
• Cina has a 11-11 clay record in 2026, while Zahraj is 2-4 on clay this year.
• Cina's recent form includes wins over top-200 opponents (e.g., Kolar #154, Choinski #100), while Zahraj's wins are mostly against unranked or low-ranked players.
• Cina's first-serve win rate (69%) and second-serve win rate (50%) are superior to Zahraj's (68.5% and 44.6%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30

The read

The competitive nature of both players' first sets, with many going to 10 or more games, supports over 9.5 games in the opening set.

• Cina's first sets in recent matches average 9.8 games.
• Zahraj's first sets in recent matches average 9.3 games.
• Both players have a high rate of first sets going to 10+ games (Cina 53%, Zahraj 47%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20

The read

Cina's tendency to start matches strongly, combined with Zahraj's frequent first-set losses, makes Cina the likely winner of the opening set.

• Cina has won the first set in 10 of his last 15 matches (67%).
• Zahraj has lost the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches (53%).
• Cina's first-set win conversion rate is 85% career, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Zahraj's propensity for double faults, combined with Cina's moderate rate, makes over 5.5 double faults likely in a match with many service games.

• Zahraj has a high double-fault rate of 6.9%, averaging 0.69 per service game.
• Cina's double-fault rate is 3.5%, averaging 0.35 per service game.
• In a projected 22+ game match, combined double faults could exceed 5.5.