Leolia Jeanjean #132France22 – 1Alice Tubello #229France1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Jeanjean's stronger serve metrics and recent wins over higher-ranked opponents give her a structural edge on clay, despite Tubello's high volume of clay wins.

• Jeanjean is 12-8 on clay in 2026, with a career clay win percentage of 62.2% and 156 career clay wins.
• Tubello is 29-10 on clay in 2026, but her recent form includes losses to players ranked outside the top 100 (e.g., Sobolieva, Pridankina).
• Jeanjean has a higher break point save rate (54.7% vs 51.9%) and a higher win on first serve (63.9% vs 59%).
• Jeanjean's last 5 matches: 4-1, including wins over top-100 opponents (Erjavec, Volynets) and a tight loss to Snigur (77).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Recent match lengths for both players suggest a competitive match likely exceeding 20.5 games.

• Jeanjean's last 3 matches averaged 22.3 games per match.
• Tubello's last 3 matches averaged 21.7 games per match.
• Both players have shown the ability to extend sets, with Jeanjean playing a 7-5 third set and Tubello a 7-5 second set in recent matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Tubello's ability to keep matches close, even in losses, makes her likely to cover the +3.5 game handicap.

• Tubello's recent losses have been by margins of 4, 7, and 7 games, but her wins have been by 6, 5, and 6 games.
• Jeanjean's recent wins have been by 1, 5, and 5 games, but her loss was by 5 games.
• The match is expected to be close, with Tubello likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

The competitive nature of the matchup and both players' comfort in three-set matches suggest a higher likelihood of going the distance.

• Jeanjean has played 3 three-set matches in her last 15, winning 2.
• Tubello has played 4 three-set matches in her last 15, winning 2.
• Both players have deciding set win rates above 55% (Jeanjean 62%, Tubello 56%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates, making it unlikely they will combine for more than 5 aces.

• Jeanjean's ace rate is 3.3%, averaging about 2-3 aces per match.
• Tubello's ace rate is 1.5%, averaging about 1 ace per match.
• Combined, their ace rates suggest a total under 5.5 aces in a typical match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given their double fault rates and the likelihood of a competitive match, total double faults are expected to be over 7.5.

• Jeanjean's double fault rate is 5.8%, averaging about 4-5 double faults per match.
• Tubello's double fault rate is 4.1%, averaging about 3 double faults per match.
• In a potentially long match, combined double faults could exceed 7.5.