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Predictions graded

Karolina Muchova #9Czechia1Cori Gauff #7United States2

Sets 6-2 · 1-6 · 6-7Thu 9 Jul 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalGrass

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCoco Gauff · 2 places

Karolina Muchova

Czechia

Career-high No. 8 came in September 2023. Her 2024 season was disrupted by wrist surgery, but 2026 has been a clear rebound season, including a Doha title and a Bad Homburg grass title before this Wimbledon semi-final. She is an all-court right-hander known for variety and net skills.

Current ranking: #9
Peak ranking: #8 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Coco Gauff

United States

Career-high No. 2 came in June 2024. Public bio sources describe hard court as her favourite surface, though she has also produced elite clay results, including the 2025 French Open title. Her current coaching setup includes Jean-Christophe Faurel, with Gavin MacMillan added in 2025.

Current ranking: #7
Peak ranking: #2 · 2024
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Jul 2026, 07:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Gauff’s dominant 6-1 H2H record and stronger recent opposition give her a structural edge, but Muchova’s 10-1 grass record and fresher legs make this a coin-flip semi-final.

The best betting angles are over 22.5 total games and over 5.5 double faults, while Muchova’s handicap and Gauff 2-1 set betting offer negative value.

Context

Gauff beat Pegula 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 on 7 July, her fourth consecutive three-setter at this tournament.
- Her last four matches averaged 29.5 games, compared to Muchova's 22.5 games in her last four.
- No injury or retirement reports exist, but the repeated recoveries are a real current-event load signal.
Muchova's 2026 grass record is 10-1, including a Bad Homburg title and a straight-set quarter-final win over Naomi Osaka.
- She has not retired or withdrawn from any match in the last 30 days, and no medical timeout reports surfaced.
- Her serve stats on grass are clean: 2.9% double-fault rate and 65.8% first-serve percentage.
Gauff is 6-1 overall, with all six wins on hard courts; Muchova's lone win was on clay in April 2026.
- In their only grass meeting (Wimbledon 2024), Muchova won in straight sets.
- H2H stats show Gauff with a higher double-fault rate (29 in 7 matches) and Muchova with a lower break-point conversion (35%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Gauff's dominant H2H record (6-1) and stronger recent opposition (Pegula, Bencic) on grass give her a structural edge, despite Muchova's excellent grass form.
- H2H: Gauff leads 6-1 overall, including 6-0 on hard courts; Muchova's only win came on clay in April 2026.
- Surface: Gauff is 5-1 on grass in 2026 with a training block this year; Muchova is 10-1 but with weaker opposition.
- Recent form: Gauff has beaten Pegula (rank 4), Bencic (11), and Liu/Sierra in 3-setters; Muchova beat Osaka (14) and Krejcikova (38).
- Serve/return: Gauff has higher ace rate (5.1% vs 4.6%) and break point conversion (48.7% vs 46.4%), though double fault rate is higher (8.1% vs 2.9%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Both players have been involved in tight opening sets recently, and H2H history shows a trend toward extended first sets.
- Muchova's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3 (avg 9.8 games).
- Gauff's last 5 first sets: 4-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 (avg 9.2 games).
- H2H: 5 of 7 first sets had 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing resilience and recent three-set battles, a close match exceeding 21.5 total games is likely.
- Both players have gone to three sets in multiple recent matches: Gauff in 4 of last 5, Muchova in 2 of last 5.
- H2H: 4 of 7 matches have had 20+ games, including the last two meetings (22 and 20 games).
- Career stats: Muchova has 55% deciding set win rate, Gauff 66%, indicating close matches often go the distance.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been competitive in recent matches for both, and H2H suggests a decent chance of a tight set.
- Muchova's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6, 6-2, 6-2 (avg 9.6 games).
- Gauff's last 5 second sets: 6-3, 6-3, 6-7, 3-6, 6-1 (avg 9.4 games).
- H2H: 4 of 7 second sets had 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff's historical first-set dominance in H2H (5/7) and her strong start against Pegula give her a slight edge to take the opener.
- Gauff has won the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches.
- Muchova has won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches.
- H2H: Gauff won the first set in 5 of 7 meetings.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCori GauffEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Gauff's recent marathon matches and Muchova's fighting spirit make a three-setter more likely than not.
- Gauff has played three sets in 4 of her last 5 matches.
- Muchova has played three sets in 2 of her last 5 matches.
- H2H: 3 of 7 matches went to three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Gauff's persistent double fault issues, combined with Muchova's occasional errors, make over 5.5 double faults likely.
- Gauff has a high double fault rate of 8.1%, Muchova 2.9%.
- In H2H, Gauff has 29 double faults in 7 matches (4.1 per match), Muchova 14 (2.0 per match).
- Gauff's last 5 matches: 3, 4, 5, 6, 2 double faults (avg 4.0).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Market price1.83Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
On grass, both players' ace rates suggest a combined total above 7.5 is plausible, though not a high-confidence call.
- Gauff averages 5.1% ace rate, Muchova 4.6%.
- In H2H, Gauff has 22 aces in 7 matches (3.1 per match), Muchova 12 (1.7 per match).
- Grass surface typically increases ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1-6 (7 meetings)

W6-3 5-7 6-3Karolina Muchova#9vCori Gauff#7Apr 17, 2026

L6-1 6-1Karolina Muchova#9vCori Gauff#7Mar 26, 2026

L6-1 3-6 6-3Karolina Muchova#9vCori Gauff#7Jan 25, 2026

L6-1 6-4Karolina Muchova#9vCori Gauff#7Jan 4, 2025

L6-1 6-3Karolina Muchova#9vCori Gauff#7Oct 6, 2024

L6-4 7-5Karolina Muchova#9vCori Gauff#7Sep 7, 2023

L6-3 6-4Karolina Muchova#9vCori Gauff#7Aug 20, 2023

Cori Gauff dominates (7 meetings)7 total meetings

Karolina Muchova

12W 3L

7-6(4) 6-4#14Naomi Osaka

7-5 5-7 6-3#38Barbora Krejcikova

6-2 7-6(1)#164Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-3 6-2#64Shuai Zhang

6-3 6-2#85Anastasia Zakharova

6-1 1-0 ret.#14Naomi Osaka

6-4 6-4#71Elena Gabriela Ruse

1-6 6-2 6-4#25Clara Tauson

6-1 6-1#173Irina-Camelia Begu

6-4 7-5#22Madison Keys

6-1 6-3#64Shuai Zhang

6-1 7-5#124Jil Teichmann

6-2 6-2#70Kamilla Rakhimova

7-5 6-2#85Anastasia Zakharova

6-3 6-2#28Anastasia Potapova

Cori Gauff

12W 3L

4-6 6-3 6-3#4Jessica Pegula

4-6 6-3 6-4#11Belinda Bencic

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#146Claire Liu

6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#56Solana Sierra

6-2 6-1#78Tamara Korpatsch

1-6 6-3 6-2#141Paula Badosa Gibert

4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#28Anastasia Potapova

6-3 6-2#109Mayar Sherif

6-4 6-0#79Taylor Townsend

6-4 6-7(3) 6-2#8Elina Svitolina

6-4 6-3#18Sorana Cirstea

4-6 6-2 6-4#5Mirra Andreeva

5-7 7-5 6-2#16Iva Jovic

5-7 6-0 6-4#56Solana Sierra

6-3 6-4#54Tereza Valentova