Arthur Gea #136France22 – 1Tristan Schoolkate #149Australia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Gea's lighter workload and strong first-set record give him a slight edge on grass.

• Gea has a 4-3 grass record in 2026, including a straight-sets win in the previous round.
• Schoolkate's 2026 grass record is 4-3, but he needed three sets in his opener.
• Gea's first-set win conversion rate is 85%, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Competitive serve/return profiles and recent match lengths point to a match with over 22.5 games.

• Schoolkate's last match had 31 games, and Gea's last three-set match had 36 games.
• Both players have similar serve/return stats, suggesting competitive sets.
• Grass often leads to tiebreaks and extended sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Strong serving and recent first-set scores suggest a tight opening set with over 9.5 games.

• Gea's last three first sets: 6-2, 7-5, 7-6.
• Schoolkate's last three first sets: 6-3, 4-6, 7-5.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 68-74%, making breaks less frequent.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Even second-set performance and similar serve stats make over 9.5 games likely.

• Gea's last three second sets: 6-3, 6-3, 6-7.
• Schoolkate's last three second sets: 7-6, 6-0, 6-3.
• Both players have similar second-serve win percentages around 49%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Schoolkate's high ace rate on grass should push the total aces over 10.5.

• Schoolkate's ace rate is 10.1%, significantly higher than Gea's 4.3%.
• Schoolkate averages about 6-8 aces per match on grass.
• Gea's ace rate is lower, but combined they can reach over 10.5 aces.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Strong serving and recent tiebreak history make a tiebreak likely in this match.

• Gea's tiebreak win percentage is 60%, Schoolkate's is 50%.
• Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches.
• Grass often produces tiebreaks due to strong serving.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Combined double fault rates suggest a moderate chance of over 5.5 double faults.

• Schoolkate's double fault rate is 5.8%, Gea's is 4.9%.
• Both players average around 2-3 double faults per match.
• Grass can lead to more double faults due to aggressive serving.