WTA BastadFinished

Predictions graded

Simona Waltert #86Switzerland2Aneta Laboutkova #619Czechia0

Sets 6-2 · 6-0Wed 8 Jul 2026, 10:58 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions9–0100%

Edges8–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSimona Waltert · 533 places

Simona Waltert

Switzerland

WTA official lists Waltert at a career-high No. 86 in 2026. She is coached by Stephane Bohli, and the WTA profile highlights her 2025 Rio 125 title and Iasi quarterfinal among her recent milestones.

Current ranking: #86
Peak ranking: #86
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 174 cm

Aneta Laboutkova

Czechia

Public singles peak remains No. 445 from December 2022. Her most clearly sourced recent ranking milestone is doubles No. 150 in May 2026, so her public trajectory is easier to track in doubles than singles.

Current ranking: #619
Peak ranking: #445 · 2022
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Jul 2026, 06:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Simona Waltert's massive ranking and clay-court edge make her a heavy favorite against Aneta Laboutkova, but the 1.04 odds offer no value.

The best betting angle is under 8.5 games in the first set at 2.00, where Waltert's strong starts and Laboutkova's struggles against top players create a 12-point edge.

Context

Last five matches: 2-3 record, with losses to #68 Osorio, #47 Marcinko, and #151 Lazaro Garcia.
- Wins over #119 Kawa (6-4 6-1) and #184 Kostovic (6-0 6-3) show she handles lower-ranked players well.
- Waltert's career win percentage is 60.2%, and she has 320 career wins.
Last five matches: 4-1, with wins over unranked Bernstein, #314 Ce, #530 Rocchetti, and unranked Gentili.
- Loss to #374 Chiesa (6-2 6-1) shows vulnerability against even modestly ranked players.
- Career win percentage is 51.2%, and she has never been ranked inside the top 400 in singles.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Simona Waltert

1.04fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 96.2%

0.0ppshort

Despite the negative edge, Waltert's massive ranking and experience gap makes her a heavy favorite, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Simona Waltert

1.11fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 90.1%

0.0ppshort

Waltert's superior serve and return stats, plus her ability to start strong against better players, should secure the opening set.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.20fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Waltert's superiority should prevent a third set, as she typically dispatches weaker opponents in straight sets.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Simona Waltert

1.11fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 90.1%

0.0ppshort

Waltert's overall game superiority should carry through to the second set, though Laboutkova may push harder if behind.

Tiebreak in MatchwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

A lopsided match is unlikely to produce a tiebreak, as Waltert should win sets comfortably.

Game HandicapwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Simona Waltert -4.5

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Waltert's ability to dominate lower-ranked players on clay makes a -4.5 game handicap achievable, but the odds are too short for value.

Total GameswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 20.5

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

The class difference suggests a routine straight-set win for Waltert with relatively few games, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.04
The read
Waltert's massive ranking and experience edge, combined with superior clay pedigree and recent form against much stronger opposition, makes her a heavy favorite.
- Waltert ranking #90 vs Laboutkova #619, massive gap in current level.
- Waltert clay record 2025-2026: 58-24 (70.7%), Laboutkova 2025-2026: 19-12 (61.3%) but mostly at lower ITF level.
- Waltert last 5 matches: 2-3 but all losses to top-70 opponents; Laboutkova last 5: 4-1 but only one opponent ranked inside 300.
- Waltert career win% 60.2% vs Laboutkova 51.2%, and Waltert has 320 career wins vs 218.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSimona WaltertEstimated chance82%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Waltert's ability to dominate lower-ranked players on clay makes a -4.5 game handicap achievable.
- Waltert's average game margin in wins over lower-ranked opponents: +6.2 games (last 5 wins).
- Laboutkova's average game margin in losses to top-400 players: -8.0 games (last 5 such losses).
- Waltert's break point conversion 49% vs Laboutkova's break point save 54.8% suggests Waltert can cover the handicap.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonSimona Waltert -4.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Given the class difference, a routine straight-set win for Waltert with relatively few games is likely.
- Waltert's last 5 wins averaged 17.2 games per match, Laboutkova's last 5 wins averaged 18.6 games.
- Waltert's recent losses to top players were mostly straight sets with total games 15, 15, 18, 12, 13.
- Laboutkova's losses to players ranked 296-460 were 12, 12, 12, 13 games total.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Waltert's strong start and Laboutkova's vulnerability against higher-ranked players suggest a quick first set.
- Waltert's last 5 set1 scores: 6-4, 2-6, 4-6, 4-6, 6-0; average 8.4 games.
- Laboutkova's last 5 set1 scores: 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2; average 7.8 games.
- Waltert's first serve win% 63.3% should dominate Laboutkova's 60.7% on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Assuming Waltert takes the first set, the second set could be one-sided, but Laboutkova's fighting spirit adds uncertainty.
- Waltert's last 5 set2 scores: 6-1, 1-6, 7-6, 3-6, 6-3; average 8.4 games.
- Laboutkova's last 5 set2 scores: 6-1, 1-6, 6-3, 0-6, 6-2; average 7.8 games.
- If Waltert wins first set, Laboutkova's resistance may fade, leading to a quick second set.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.11
The read
Waltert's superior serve and return stats, plus her ability to start strong against better players, should secure the opening set.
- Waltert first set win conversion 86% career, Laboutkova also 86% but against weaker fields.
- Waltert won first set in 3 of last 5 matches, Laboutkova in 4 of last 5 but vs low-ranked opponents.
- Waltert's serve/return edge: first serve win% 63.3% vs 60.7%, return points win% 47% vs 45%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSimona WaltertEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Waltert's superiority should prevent a third set, as she typically dispatches weaker opponents in straight sets.
- Waltert's last 10 wins: 8 in straight sets; Laboutkova's last 10 wins: 8 in straight sets.
- Waltert's deciding set win% 51% vs Laboutkova 46%, but Waltert rarely needs three sets against lower-ranked opponents.
- Laboutkova's three-set matches often come against similar-level players, not top-100 opponents.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.11
The read
Waltert's overall game superiority should carry through to the second set, though Laboutkova may push harder if behind.
- Waltert has won second set in 4 of last 5 wins, Laboutkova in 3 of last 5 wins but against weaker opponents.
- Waltert's break point conversion 49% vs Laboutkova 47.4%, slight edge.
- Laboutkova's double fault rate 5.8% vs Waltert 6.8%, but Waltert's ace rate 3% vs 2.5% gives her more free points.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonSimona WaltertEstimated chance72%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
A lopsided match is unlikely to produce a tiebreak, as Waltert should win sets comfortably.
- Waltert's tiebreak win% 52%, Laboutkova 52%, but tiebreaks are rare in mismatches.
- Waltert's last 10 matches: 2 tiebreaks; Laboutkova's last 10: 2 tiebreaks.
- Expected straight-set win reduces tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates suggest a total around 5, but clay surface and lack of detailed ace data make this a low-confidence over.
- Waltert ace rate 3% on clay, Laboutkova 2.5%; combined average aces per match ~5-6.
- Waltert's last 5 matches: aces data not available, but career 1072 aces in 532 matches suggests ~2 per match.
- Laboutkova's career 565 aces in 426 matches suggests ~1.3 per match, but clay reduces ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, and a two-set match could still see 8+ double faults combined.
- Waltert double fault rate 6.8%, Laboutkova 5.8%; combined average double faults per match ~8-10.
- Waltert's career 2491 double faults in 532 matches suggests ~4.7 per match.
- Laboutkova's career 1323 double faults in 426 matches suggests ~3.1 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Simona Waltert

7W 8L

6-4 6-1#119Katarzyna Kawa

6-2 6-1#68Maria Camila Osorio Serrano

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#47Petra Marcinko

6-4 6-3#151Andrea Lazaro Garcia

6-0 6-3#184Teodora Kostovic

6-4 7-6(4)#36Katerina Siniakova

6-3 6-4#66Anhelina Kalinina

6-7(9) 6-4 6-4#30Hailey Baptiste

7-5 4-6 6-1#55Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-2 1-6 7-5#121Yue Yuan

6-2 7-6(4)#321Georgia Pedone

3-6 7-6(8) 6-1#243Mia Pohankova

7-5 4-6 6-3#409Lucija Ciric Bagaric

6-2 7-5#31Jelena Ostapenko

7-5 6-0#53Oleksandra Oliynykova

Aneta Laboutkova

9W 6L

6-1 6-1—Grace Bernstein

6-2 6-1#374Deborah Chiesa

6-4 6-3#314Gabriela Ce

6-3 0-6 6-4#530Sofia Rocchetti

6-2 6-2—Agnese Gentili

7-5 6-4#375Alessandra Mazzola

7-6(8) 6-3#609Emma Lene

3-6 6-3 6-3#557Mara Guth

6-3 0-6 6-1—Amelie Brooks

6-2 6-2#460Tena Lukas

6-2 6-0#890Yana Morderger

6-3 6-1#296Manon Leonard

6-4 7-6(6)#779Marie Villet

6-2 5-7 6-3#349Kira Pavlova

6-2 6-0#579Marie Weckerle

Simona Waltert

Aneta Laboutkova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 8.5

Simona Waltert

Simona Waltert

Under 2.5

Simona Waltert

No

Simona Waltert -4.5

Under 20.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Simona Waltert @ 1.04

Simona Waltert

Aneta Laboutkova