Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolini: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Kostyuk's dominant grass form this Wimbledon (4-0, no sets lost to players outside top 25) and her recent elite wins give her a slight edge over Paolini, who has been more vulnerable in early rounds.
- Kostyuk is 4-0 on grass in 2026, all at Wimbledon, with straight-set wins over Krueger and Podoroska and three-set wins over Navarro and Blinkova.
- Paolini is 4-1 on grass in 2026 but needed three sets in two of her four Wimbledon wins, including a 0-6 first set against Montgomery.
- Kostyuk's recent form includes wins over top-10 players Swiatek (3), Andreeva (5), and Pegula (4) on clay/hard, showing elite-level ability.
- H2H is 2-1 Paolini, but all matches were on hard/indoor hard in 2022-23; no grass meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarta KostyukEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested, with both players capable of holding serve, making over 9.5 games a strong probability.
- Kostyuk's first sets at Wimbledon: 6-4, 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-1; three of four had 10+ games.
- Paolini's first sets: 6-4, 6-1, 7-6(0), 0-6; three of four had 10+ games.
- Both players have first-serve percentages around 60-65%, leading to competitive service games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
With both players showing the ability to extend sets and a likelihood of at least one tight set, the match is expected to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Kostyuk's Wimbledon matches have averaged 20.5 games, with two three-setters pushing totals to 25 and 31 games.
- Paolini's Wimbledon matches have averaged 22.3 games, with three of four going over 21.5 games.
- Both players have strong return stats (return points won ~46%), suggesting breaks and longer games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Given Paolini's tendency to battle in second sets and Kostyuk's occasional dips, the second set is likely to feature at least 10 games.
- Kostyuk's second sets: 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2; three of four had 10+ games.
- Paolini's second sets: 4-6, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4; all four had 10+ games.
- Paolini's second-set resilience suggests she will push Kostyuk even if behind.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Kostyuk's superior first-set performance at this Wimbledon and her high career conversion rate suggest she is more likely to start strongly against Paolini, who has had slow starts.
- Kostyuk has won the first set in 3 of her 4 Wimbledon matches, losing only to Blinkova in a tiebreak.
- Paolini lost the first set 0-6 to Montgomery and was pushed to a tiebreak by Golubic; she won first set in only 2 of 4 matches.
- Kostyuk's first-set win conversion rate for her career is 88%, indicating strong front-running ability.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarta KostyukEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent matches and their history of three-setters at this tournament make a deciding set more likely than not.
- Kostyuk has played two three-setters in four Wimbledon matches.
- Paolini has played two three-setters in four Wimbledon matches.
- Both players have deciding-set win rates above 60% for their careers, indicating comfort in long matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paolini's resilience in second sets at this tournament, combined with Kostyuk's occasional lapses, gives Paolini a marginal edge to take the second set if the match extends.
- Paolini has won the second set in 3 of her 4 Wimbledon matches, including after losing the first set 0-6 to Montgomery.
- Kostyuk lost the second set to Navarro and Blinkova, showing some vulnerability after winning the first.
- Paolini's career win rate on second serve (47.1%) is higher than Kostyuk's (44.2%), which could help in tighter second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostJasmine PaoliniEstimated chance52%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Marta Kostyuk #13Ukraine2Jasmine Paolini #17Italy0

Player Profiles

Marta Kostyuk

Jasmine Paolini

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Over 21.5

Over 9.5

Marta Kostyuk 2-1

Marta Kostyuk

Marta Kostyuk

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Marta Kostyuk (-3.5) @ 1.73

Head-to-Head

Marta Kostyuk

Jasmine Paolini