Bernard Tomic #204Australia22 – 0Braden Shick #325United States0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.15

The read

Shick's superior recent form (9-1 last 10) and match fitness from the Cary final outweigh Tomic's grass experience, especially given Tomic's scratch in Cary and inconsistent 2026 results.

• Shick is 9-1 in his last 10 matches, with the only loss to Andrew Fenty (ranked 400).
• Tomic is 4-6 in his last 10, with losses to players ranked 124, 93, 192, 174, and 222.
• Shick has no grass-court experience in his career, but his recent hard-court form is strong and he arrives with match rhythm from Cary final.
• Tomic's grass record is 70-38 career, but his 2026 grass form is 2-3 with losses to O'Connell and Bonzi.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches frequently exceed 22.5 games, and their tiebreak tendencies increase the likelihood of extended sets.

• Tomic's last 10 matches average 22.1 total games, with 6 of 10 going over 22.5.
• Shick's last 10 matches average 22.3 total games, with 5 of 10 going over 22.5.
• Both players have high tiebreak rates (Tomic 57% career, Shick 60% career), which can extend sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

High first-serve win rates for both players suggest a tight opening set, with historical data showing a majority of recent first sets exceeding 9.5 games.

• Tomic's last 10 first sets average 9.8 games, with 7 of 10 going over 9.5.
• Shick's last 10 first sets average 9.4 games, with 5 of 10 going over 9.5.
• Both players have strong serve hold percentages (Tomic 72% first serve, Shick 72% first serve).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While not as strong as the first set, the second set could still be competitive given both players' ability to hold serve under pressure.

• Tomic's last 10 second sets average 9.2 games, with 5 of 10 going over 9.5.
• Shick's last 10 second sets average 9.1 games, with 4 of 10 going over 9.5.
• Both players have similar break point save rates (Tomic 62.9%, Shick 60%).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Shick's recent dominance in games won suggests he could win by at least 2 games if he secures the victory.

• Shick's average games won per match in last 10 is 12.7, Tomic's is 10.8.
• Shick has covered a -1.5 game handicap in 6 of his last 10 wins.
• Tomic has failed to cover a +1.5 game handicap in 6 of his last 10 losses.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.15

The read

Shick's tendency to start fast (8/10 recent first sets won) and Tomic's slow starts (6/10 first sets lost) give Shick an edge in the opening set.

• Shick has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches.
• Tomic has lost the first set in 6 of his last 10 matches.
• Shick's first-set win conversion rate is 95% career, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players frequently go to three sets, and their similar competitive levels suggest this match is likely to extend beyond two sets.

• Tomic has played 3 sets in 5 of his last 10 matches.
• Shick has played 3 sets in 4 of his last 10 matches.
• Tomic's deciding set win rate is 57%, Shick's is 66%, indicating both are comfortable in three-setters.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have a high frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches, and their strong serving suggests at least one set could go to a breaker.

• Tomic has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 10 matches.
• Shick has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 10 matches.
• Tomic's career tiebreak win rate is 57%, Shick's is 60%, indicating frequent tiebreak involvement.