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Predictions graded

Jason Jung #856Taiwan2Hiroki Moriya #472Japan0

Sets 7-6 · 7-6Tue 7 Jul 2026, 20:10 Predictions gradedQ3Grass

Predictions3–443%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHiroki Moriya · 384 places

Jason Jung

Taiwan

ATP bio lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high No. 114 on 2018-07-30 and has mostly competed at Challenger/ITF level in recent seasons, with Newport still a familiar stop.

Current ranking: #856
Peak ranking: #114 · 2018
Current age: 37
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

ATP bio lists hard courts as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high No. 143 on 2015-01-05 and has remained active mainly across Challenger and ITF events since then.

Current ranking: #472
Peak ranking: #143 · 2015
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Jul 2026, 06:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Moriya’s fresher legs and superior recent form give him the edge over Jung, who labored through a three-setter on Monday.

Despite Jung’s historical H2H dominance, Moriya is the pick to win, with over 22.5 games a solid angle given both players’ serving on grass.

Context

Moriya beat Alex Martinez 6-4, 7-6(1) in Q1 on July 6.
- Jung needed three sets (7-6, 3-6, 6-4) to beat Andrej Martin on the same day.
- Both players return for Q2 on July 7, leaving Jung with less recovery time.
Moriya's last five: W-W-W-L-W, including a straight-set Q1 win.
- Jung's last five: L-L-L-L-W, with the lone win a tight three-setter in Q1.
- Moriya's wins came against opponents ranked 351, 432, 601, and 688; Jung's losses were to players ranked 154, 263, 258, and 549.
Jung won five of six career meetings, but the most recent was June 2023.
- Moriya's only win came in 2019 on hard court.
- All meetings were on hard or carpet, not grass, and Jung's recent level has dropped sharply.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Moriya's superior recent form and lighter workload give him an edge over Jung, despite Jung's historical H2H dominance.
- H2H: Jason Jung leads 5-1, but last meeting was 2023; Moriya's recent form is stronger.
- Recent form (last 5): Moriya 4-1 with wins over higher-ranked opponents; Jung 1-4 with losses to players outside top 250.
- Surface: Moriya 1-0 on grass in 2026; Jung 1-0 but with a tight three-setter vs. #306.
- Fitness: Jung played a 3-set Q1 match yesterday; Moriya won in straight sets, fresher for Q2.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jung's competitive losses and strong H2H history suggest he will keep the match close, covering the +2.5 game handicap.
- Jung's last 5 losses: margins of -8, -4, -4, -5, -5 games; only one exceeded -2.5.
- Moriya's last 5 wins: margins of +3, +4, +9, +8, +9; but against weaker opponents.
- H2H: Jung covered +2.5 in 5 of 6 meetings.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJason Jung +2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve well on grass and recent matches trending toward longer contests, over 22.5 games is likely.
- Jung's last 3 matches: 32, 16, 20 games; Moriya's last 3: 23, 27, 20 games.
- H2H: 4 of 6 matches had 20+ games; 2 had 22+.
- Both players have high hold rates on grass: Jung 68.5% first-serve win, Moriya 66.3%.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Moriya's strong recent first-set performances and Jung's slow starts make Moriya a slight favorite to take the opener.
- Moriya won his last two first sets 6-4 and 7-6; Jung lost his last two first sets 3-6 and 4-6.
- Moriya's first-set win rate in last 5 matches: 80%; Jung's: 20%.
- H2H: Jung won first set in 4 of 6 meetings, but recent form suggests a shift.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and the high-stakes qualifying match could push the total over 5.5.
- Jung's double-fault rate: 4.0%; Moriya's: 4.3%.
- In their last H2H, combined 5 double faults.
- Pressure of qualifying match may increase double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
On grass, both players' ace rates should be slightly elevated, making over 8.5 a reasonable target.
- Jung's ace rate: 4.8% (career); Moriya's: 3.4%.
- In their last H2H (2023), Jung hit 5 aces, Moriya 2.
- Grass surface typically increases ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

5-1 (6 meetings)

W6-1 2-6 6-4Jason Jung#856vHiroki Moriya#472Jun 3, 2023

W6-3 7-6(6)Jason Jung#856vHiroki Moriya#472May 1, 2023

W6-3 6-4Jason Jung#856vHiroki Moriya#472Jun 2, 2021

L6-2 6-3Jason Jung#856vHiroki Moriya#472Jan 10, 2019

W6-1 6-1Jason Jung#856vHiroki Moriya#472May 14, 2018

W4-6 6-3 6-4Jason Jung#856vHiroki Moriya#472Nov 20, 2013

Jason Jung dominates (6 meetings)6 total meetings

Jason Jung

3W 12L

7-6(3) 3-6 6-4#306Andres Martin

6-3 6-1#154Zdenek Kolar

6-4 6-4#263Andre Ilagan

6-2 3-6 6-3#258Giles Hussey

6-3 6-4#549Hyeon Chung

1-6 6-3 6-4#176Yoshihito Nishioka

7-5 6-2#176Yoshihito Nishioka

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(6)#399Arthur Weber

6-7(4) 6-4 6-2#207James McCabe

6-3 2-0 ret.#257Kaichi Uchida

6-4 7-6(7)#388Kasidit Samrej

6-3 5-4 ret.#634Strong Kirchheimer

6-3 7-6(7)#466Trevor Svajda

6-1 6-3#252Andres Andrade

6-3 7-5#521Matteo Gigante

Hiroki Moriya

8W 7L

6-4 7-6(1)#351Alex Martinez

4-6 6-2 6-3#434Edward Winter

7-6(3) 5-2 ret.#432Alex Rybakov

7-6(5) 6-2#741Hoyoung Roh

7-6(5) 4-6 6-4#601Kuan-Yi Lee

6-2 6-1#688Uisung Park

6-2 ret.—Seongwoo Cho

7-6(4) 6-2#661Aidan Kim

6-2 6-3#895Timo Legout

6-3 6-1#1391Ronald Hohmann

6-3 6-1#1207Keenan Mayo

6-2 7-6(3)#263Andre Ilagan

6-7(5) 6-3 6-0#446Pietro Orlando Fellin

6-3 6-4#381Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-1 6-2—Haoran Hu