Andre Ilagan #263United States22 – 1Alex Rybakov #432United States1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Ilagan's superior recent form (4-1 last 5) and grass-court win in Newport qualifying, combined with a more recent H2H victory, give him a moderate edge over Rybakov, who has a retirement loss on grass in his last 5 matches.

• Ilagan is 1-0 on grass in 2026, winning 6-3 6-4 in Newport qualifying; Rybakov is 1-0 on grass in 2026 but has a career 2-1 grass record with limited high-level grass experience.
• Ilagan's recent form (last 5): 4-1, including a straight-set win over Connor Plunkett on grass; Rybakov's recent form (last 5): 3-2, with a retirement loss to Hiroki Moriya on grass.
• Ilagan holds a 1-1 H2H edge, winning their last meeting 7-5 7-5 on hard court in July 2025; both matches were on hard, but Ilagan's win was more recent.
• Ilagan's serve/return stats: 65.9% first serve, 67.7% win on first, 52.2% win on second, 43.2% break point conversion; Rybakov: 66.9% first serve, 69.3% win on first, 51.3% win on second, 42.1% break point conversion.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches and H2H history trend toward higher game totals, with an average above 22 games, making over 21.5 likely in a competitive Bo3 match.

• Ilagan's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games; Rybakov's last 5 averaged 22.4 total games.
• Both H2H matches went over 21.5 games: 7-6 6-3 (22 games) and 7-5 7-5 (24 games).
• On grass, Ilagan's only match had 19 games, but Rybakov's last grass match had 23 games; both players have break point save rates around 60%, suggesting extended games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second-set averages are slightly below 9.5, but H2H history and serve stats suggest a close set, making over 9.5 a marginal lean.

• Ilagan's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 6-0, 6-1, 6-1, 7-6 (average 9.2 games); Rybakov's last 5 second sets: 7-6, 5-2 ret., 6-1, 1-6, 6-1 (average 9.0 games).
• In H2H, second sets were 6-3 and 7-5, both over 9.5 games.
• Both players have similar second-serve win rates (52% vs 51%), indicating potential for extended games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Grass courts favor aces, and Rybakov's higher ace rate and H2H ace advantage suggest a combined total over 8.5 is plausible, though Ilagan's lower ace output keeps confidence low.

• Rybakov averages 5.2% ace rate, Ilagan 4.5%; in H2H, Rybakov hit 9 aces in 2 matches, Ilagan 2.
• On grass, ace rates typically increase; Rybakov's career ace count is 1672 in 555 matches (3.0 per match), Ilagan's is 710 in 244 matches (2.9 per match).
• In their last grass matches, Rybakov hit 5 aces vs Wu, Ilagan hit 3 vs Plunkett.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The H2H double fault count is unusually high, and while recent grass matches show lower numbers, the historical trend supports over 5.5 in a potentially tight match.

• Ilagan's double fault rate is 3.3%, Rybakov's is 3.6%; in H2H, they combined for 21 double faults in 2 matches (10.5 per match).
• On grass, Ilagan had 2 double faults in his last match, Rybakov had 3.
• Both players have similar double fault rates, and the H2H average is significantly higher than 5.5.