Raul Brancaccio #248Italy22 – 1Franco Agamenone #268Italy1

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Brancaccio's slightly better serve stats and more recent H2H win give a marginal edge, but both players have similar clay-court profiles and inconsistent recent form, making this a close call.

• Brancaccio has a 52% career clay win rate (307-282) vs Agamenone's 53% (415-367), but Brancaccio's 2026 clay record is 18-15 vs Agamenone's 22-18.
• H2H is 1-1, but Brancaccio won the most recent meeting in 2023 on hard court; the only clay meeting was in 2017 won by Agamenone.
• Brancaccio's recent form (last 5): 2-3 with wins over Basilashvili (ret.) and Broady; Agamenone's last 5: 2-3 with wins over Castelnuovo and Ribecai.
• Brancaccio holds a slight edge in first-serve win% (65.7% vs 63.8%) and second-serve win% (48.3% vs 46.9%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Recent form shows both players consistently involved in matches exceeding 21.5 games, driven by competitive sets and few blowouts, supporting an over in this evenly matched contest.

• Brancaccio's last 5 completed matches averaged 22.6 total games; Agamenone's last 5 averaged 24.6 total games.
• Both players have a high percentage of matches going over 21.5 games in their recent form: Brancaccio 4 of last 5, Agamenone 4 of last 5.
• Their career clay-court matches often feature tight sets; Brancaccio's clay matches in 2026 average 21.8 games, Agamenone's 22.1.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Recent first-set scores for both players trend toward competitive, extended games, with most exceeding 9.5, indicating a likely tight opening set.

• Brancaccio's last 5 first sets: 6-2, 6-1, 5-7, 3-6, 4-6 — 4 of 5 went over 9.5 games.
• Agamenone's last 5 first sets: 5-7, 6-3, 3-6, 3-6, 3-6 — 3 of 5 went over 9.5 games.
• In their two H2H matches, first sets were 6-4 and 6-2, averaging 9 games, but current form suggests tighter starts.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Agamenone's recent matches are consistently close, and even in defeat he covers the +2.5 game handicap, making this a value play in a match expected to be tight.

• Agamenone's recent losses have been close: 5-7, 5-7; 3-6, 6-3, 6-7; 3-6, 7-6, 1-6 — all within 2.5 games except one.
• Brancaccio's wins are often narrow; his last three wins were by 6, 6, and 2 games (retirement), but his losses are also close.
• H2H matches were one-sided (6-4, 6-1 and 6-2, 6-1), but current form suggests a tighter contest.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent form shows a high frequency of three-set matches for both players, and their similar skill levels on clay make a deciding set likely in this matchup.

• Brancaccio's last 5 completed matches: 3 went to three sets; Agamenone's last 5: 3 went to three sets.
• Both players have deciding-set win rates near 50% (Brancaccio 45%, Agamenone 55%), indicating they often push matches to a third set.
• In their two H2H matches, both were straight-set wins, but current form suggests a closer contest.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both players have similar first-set records and recent struggles, but Brancaccio's slightly better serve numbers on clay may help him edge the opener in a tight contest.

• Brancaccio's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, but his recent first-set performance is mixed; he lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Agamenone's first-set win conversion is 86%, but he lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches as well.
• In their only clay H2H (2017), Agamenone won the first set 6-2; in the 2023 hard-court meeting, Brancaccio won the first set 6-4.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Low ace rates for both players, combined with clay surface slowing serves, make a low total ace count highly probable.

• Brancaccio's ace rate is 2.8% (career 1205 aces in 712 matches); Agamenone's is 2.4% (984 aces in 787 matches).
• In their H2H matches, total aces were 1 (Brancaccio) and null (Agamenone) in the only recorded match with stats.
• Both players rely on rally tolerance rather than big serving, especially on clay.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Moderate double fault rates and the likelihood of a three-set match increase the chance of exceeding 5.5 double faults, though it's a close call.

• Brancaccio's double fault rate is 4.7% (2013 DFs in 712 matches); Agamenone's is 4.2% (1691 DFs in 787 matches).
• In their H2H, Brancaccio had 3 DFs, Agamenone 4 DFs in the only match with stats.
• Both players average around 2-3 double faults per set, and a three-set match would likely push the total over 5.5.