Liv BoulardFrance00 – 2Yelyzaveta Kotliar #451Ukraine2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Kotliar's superior career win rate, stronger clay performance this season, and better return/break stats give her a clear edge over Boulard.

• Kotliar has a 61% career win rate vs Boulard's 47.6%
• Kotliar's clay record in 2026 is 24-13, Boulard's is 11-7
• Kotliar's return points won is 50% vs Boulard's 45%
• Kotliar's break point conversion is 52% vs Boulard's 46%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

The first set is expected to be tight given both players' recent first-set game counts and tiebreak history.

• Boulard's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games
• Kotliar's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games
• Both players have tiebreak experience in recent first sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Kotliar's higher first-set win conversion and recent trend of starting strong suggest she is likely to take the opening set.

• Kotliar's first set win conversion is 86% vs Boulard's 82%
• Kotliar has won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches
• Boulard lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have very low ace rates, making it highly unlikely they combine for more than 5 aces.

• Boulard's ace rate is 1.5% (61 aces in 103 matches)
• Kotliar's ace rate is 0.5% (56 aces in 172 matches)
• Both players average well under 1 ace per match

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

High double fault rates from both players suggest a combined total exceeding 7.5 is likely.

• Boulard's double fault rate is 8.1% (320 in 103 matches)
• Kotliar's double fault rate is 7.1% (745 in 172 matches)
• Both players average over 3 double faults per match