Franco Roncadelli #24500 – 2Michele Ribecai #265Italy2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00

The read

Roncadelli's stronger 2026 clay performance and better recent form on the surface give him a clear edge, despite Ribecai's home wildcard advantage.

• Roncadelli has a 24-13 clay record in 2026 vs Ribecai's 15-12
• Roncadelli's career clay win percentage is 229-173 (57%) vs Ribecai's 91-63 (59%)
• Roncadelli's recent form: 8-7 in last 15, but 5-2 in last 7 on clay
• Ribecai's recent form: 6-9 in last 15, with losses to lower-ranked opponents

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches have consistently exceeded 21.5 total games, indicating a competitive match likely to go over this line.

• Roncadelli's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 total games
• Ribecai's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 total games
• Both players have a high percentage of matches going over 21.5 games in their recent form

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be closely contested, with both players showing a pattern of extended opening sets in recent matches.

• Roncadelli's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games
• Ribecai's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games
• Both players have a tendency for tight opening sets, with multiple tiebreaks in recent matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The second set is expected to be competitive, with a slight lean towards over 9.5 games based on recent set lengths.

• Roncadelli's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games
• Ribecai's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games
• Both players have had second sets with 10+ games in 3 of their last 5 matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Roncadelli's high first-set win conversion and Ribecai's recent trend of dropping the opener suggest Roncadelli is likely to take the first set.

• Roncadelli's first-set win conversion rate is 91% when winning the first set
• Ribecai's first-set win conversion is 85%, but he has lost the first set in 6 of his last 10 matches
• Roncadelli has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches suggests a reasonable chance of at least one tiebreak in this match.

• Roncadelli has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches
• Ribecai has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches
• Both players have a tiebreak win percentage around 50%