Braunschweig - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Raphael Perot #395France0Jannik Opitz #1108Germany2

Sets 5-7 · 3-6Sun 5 Jul 2026, 15:31 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRaphael Perot · 713 places

Raphael Perot

France

French right-hander born 30 June 2001. Public profile sources list him around No. 395 in the ATP rankings, with a career-high No. 365 reached in March 2026.

Current ranking: #395
Peak ranking: #365 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Jannik Opitz

Germany

German left-hander born 15 April 1998. Public sources list a career-high singles ranking of No. 954 in June 2023, and current profiles show him outside the top 1000 in singles entering Braunschweig.

Current ranking: #1108
Peak ranking: #954 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Jul 2026, 13:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Perot's strong clay-court return game and recent form give him a clear edge over Opitz, whose weak return and double-fault tendency are liabilities.

Expect a competitive match likely exceeding 21.5 games, but Perot should win, possibly in straight sets.

Context

Perot's return points won (44%) and break point conversion (48%) significantly outpace Opitz's 36% and 38%.
- Perot has a 14-9 clay record in 2026, showing consistent success on the surface.
- Opitz's weaker return game makes it harder for him to pressure Perot's serve.
Opitz's double-fault rate is 4.9%, well above Perot's 2.8%.
- Opitz's second-serve win rate is only 47%, so he is vulnerable when he misses the first serve.
- In his last 15 matches, Opitz has lost to several lower-ranked opponents, often in straight sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Raphael Perot

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Perot's superior clay-court pedigree and return game edge make him the favorite, but the odds overstate his win probability.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Raphael Perot

1.36fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Perot's strong first-set record and Opitz's slow starts make Perot the likely set 1 winner.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Raphael Perot 2-0

1.80fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Perot's high straight-set win rate and Opitz's vulnerability to straight-set losses suggest value, but the model estimate is below the implied probability, indicating no edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Perot's superior clay-court pedigree, stronger recent form against better opposition, and significant return-game edge make him the favorite.
- Perot has a 14-9 clay record in 2026 vs Opitz's 4-2, showing more volume and success on the surface.
- Perot's recent form: 9-6 in last 15, with wins over top-350 opponents; Opitz is 7-8 with losses to lower-ranked players.
- Perot's return points won (44%) and break point conversion (48%) significantly outpace Opitz's 36% and 38%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRaphael PerotEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths for both players, especially Opitz's three-setters, point to a total exceeding 21.5 games.
- Perot's last 5 matches averaged 20.6 games; Opitz's last 5 averaged 22.4 games.
- Opitz has played three 3-setters in his last 5 matches, inflating game totals.
- Both players have moderate hold/break profiles, suggesting competitive games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set game counts and Opitz's tiebreak history suggest a competitive opener likely exceeding 9.5 games.
- Perot's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games; Opitz's averaged 9.6 games.
- Opitz has played two tiebreaks in his last 5 first sets.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 65-74%, limiting quick breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opitz's resilience in second sets and Perot's occasional letdowns make over 9.5 games in set 2 a reasonable outcome.
- Perot's last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games; Opitz's averaged 9.8 games.
- Opitz has forced a tiebreak or 7-5 set in 3 of his last 5 second sets.
- Perot's second-set performance dips slightly after strong first sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Perot's strong first-set record and Opitz's slow starts make Perot the likely set 1 winner.
- Perot has won the first set in 11 of his last 15 matches.
- Opitz has lost the first set in 7 of his last 10 matches.
- Perot's first-set win conversion rate of 92% underscores his ability to start strong.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostRaphael PerotEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Opitz's elevated double fault rate and Perot's moderate rate make over 5.5 double faults a coin-flip proposition.
- Opitz has a high double fault rate of 4.9%, averaging ~3-4 per match.
- Perot's double fault rate is 2.8%, adding ~2 per match.
- Combined, they average around 5-6 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Raphael Perot

10W 5L

6-3 6-4#778Cosme Rolland De Ravel

6-1 6-0#753Daniel Jade

7-6(7) 7-5#324Robin Bertrand

6-3 6-2#191Tristan Boyer

6-4 6-3#431Lucas Poullain

7-6(3) 6-2—Noah Karma

6-4 7-5#264Abedallah Shelbayh

6-4 6-2—David Eichenseher

7-6(6) 7-6(6)—Hugo Car

6-2 6-2#588Emilien Demanet

3-6 6-2 6-1#811Lucas Bouquet

6-1 6-4#259Felix Balshaw

6-4 6-4#743Sander Jong

7-5 6-3—Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi

6-3 6-3—Florent Lagarrigue

Jannik Opitz

8W 7L

6-3 6-4#580Yannik Kelm

6-3 7-6(6)#222Kimmer Coppejans

6-3 6-1—Nico Hipfl

6-7(6) 6-4 6-1#452Robert Strombachs

6-3 4-6 7-6(8)—Niels Ratiu

6-4 7-5#880Jonathan Mridha

6-2 6-2#793Anton Arzhankin

6-3 7-5#568Lukas Pokorny

6-1 6-1—Mattias Southcombe

6-3 6-4#393Vadym Ursu

6-4 6-4—Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka

6-1 6-2—Liam Branger

6-3 6-1—Gabriele Volpi

6-2 6-2—Jesse De Jager

6-3 6-4—Arian Barbic