WTA ContrexevilleFinished

Predictions graded

Polina Kudermetova #113Uzbekistan0Liv BoulardFrance2

Sets 6-7 · 4-6Sun 5 Jul 2026, 09:11 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions0–80%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Polina Kudermetova

Uzbekistan

23-year-old right-hander. Publicly available bio data lists a career-high singles ranking of No. 54 on 14 April 2025, and the structured match data for this fixture lists her at No. 113.

Current ranking: #113
Peak ranking: #54 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 172 cm

Liv Boulard

France

Limited reliable public profile data surfaced in the requested sweep. The clearest indexed competitive reference found was a singles quarterfinal and doubles final at the W15 Reichstett on French clay in May 2026.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Jul 2026, 22:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Polina Kudermetova's superior ranking, clay form, and serve stats make her a heavy favorite over unranked Liv Boulard in this WTA Contrexeville qualifier.

The best value lies in under 8.5 games in set 1, given Kudermetova's dominant starts and Boulard's weak serve. Steer clear of any Boulard bets, as her recent losses to low-ranked opponents underscore the mismatch.

Context

Kudermetova is 19-8 on clay in 2026, with wins over top-200 opponents like Alina Charaeva (#118) and Priscilla Hon (#150).
- She has won 6 of her last 8 completed matches in straight sets, showing efficient closing ability.
- Her career first-set win conversion rate is 90%, indicating she starts matches strongly.
Boulard lost 6-1 6-4 to #400 Kazionova in her most recent match, winning only 5 games.
- She has lost 7 of her last 10 matches in straight sets, often by wide margins.
- Her career win-on-first-serve (58%) and second-serve (41%) are significantly below tour average.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Polina Kudermetova

1.03fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 97.1%

0.0ppshort

Kudermetova's superior ranking, clay record, and serve/return stats give a decisive edge over unranked Boulard.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Polina Kudermetova

1.03fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 97.1%

0.0ppshort

Kudermetova's 90% career first-set win conversion and recent fast starts make her a strong favorite, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Polina Kudermetova

1.03fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 97.1%

0.0ppshort

Kudermetova's straight-sets win rate and Boulard's tendency to fade after losing the first set support a 2-0 win, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.03
The read
Kudermetova's superior ranking, clay record, and serve/return stats give a decisive edge over unranked Boulard.
- Kudermetova holds a 19-8 clay record in 2026 vs Boulard's 10-7, showing stronger surface fit.
- Kudermetova's career win-on-first-serve (65%) and second-serve (46%) exceed Boulard's (58%/41%).
- Kudermetova's recent form includes wins over top-200 opponents; Boulard's best win is vs #400.
- Boulard has no ranking and lost to #400 Kazionova last week, while Kudermetova is #113.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPolina KudermetovaEstimated chance85%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kudermetova's strong return game and Boulard's weak serve should lead to a relatively short match under 19.5 games.
- Kudermetova's last 5 wins averaged 18.6 total games; Boulard's last 5 losses averaged 17.4.
- Boulard's serve stats (58% first-serve win, 41% second-serve) suggest quick holds are rare.
- Kudermetova's return points won (47%) and break conversion (49.4%) indicate she can break often.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 19.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Kudermetova's ability to dominate early and Boulard's frequent slow starts make under 8.5 games in set 1 likely.
- Kudermetova's last 5 first-set results: 6-3, 4-6, 6-1, 1-6, 6-0 (avg 8.2 games).
- Boulard's last 5 first-set results: 1-6, 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 (avg 9.4 games, but skewed by tiebreak).
- Kudermetova's first-serve win rate (64.8%) should limit Boulard's games in set 1.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Kudermetova leads, she tends to close sets quickly; Boulard's second-set fade pattern supports under 8.5 games.
- Kudermetova's last 5 second-set results: 6-3, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2, 6-3 (avg 8.0 games).
- Boulard's last 5 second-set results: 4-6, 6-2, 6-1, 2-6, 6-4 (avg 8.6 games).
- Kudermetova's break-point conversion (49.4%) suggests she can close out sets efficiently.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.03
The read
Kudermetova's high first-set win rate and recent fast starts make her likely to take the opener.
- Kudermetova's first-set win conversion rate is 90% career, indicating strong starts.
- Boulard's first-set win conversion is 82%, but against much weaker opposition.
- Kudermetova won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches; Boulard lost first set in 3 of last 5.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPolina KudermetovaEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.03
The read
Kudermetova's ability to close matches efficiently and Boulard's tendency to lose in straights support a 2-0 win.
- Kudermetova has won 6 of her last 8 completed matches in straight sets.
- Boulard has lost 7 of her last 10 matches in straight sets, often fading after losing the first.
- Kudermetova's break-point conversion (49.4%) is higher than Boulard's (46.5%).
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPolina KudermetovaEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kudermetova's straight-set dominance and Boulard's inability to push matches to a third set point to a 2-0 outcome.
- Kudermetova won 6 of her last 8 matches in straight sets.
- Boulard lost 7 of her last 10 matches in straight sets.
- Kudermetova's first-set win conversion (90%) and deciding-set win rate (57%) show she avoids three-setters.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostPolina Kudermetova 2-0Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kudermetova's dominance and Boulard's weak serve reduce the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Kudermetova's tiebreak win rate is 55%, but she has played only 2 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches.
- Boulard's tiebreak win rate is 33%, with 3 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches.
- Kudermetova's first-set win conversion (90%) suggests she often wins sets without needing tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, making under 5.5 total aces highly probable.
- Kudermetova's ace rate is 4.2% (career 1043 aces in 371 matches, ~2.8 per match).
- Boulard's ace rate is 1.4% (career 55 aces in 102 matches, ~0.5 per match).
- Combined, they average ~3.3 aces per match, well under 5.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have above-average double-fault rates, pushing the total near or over 7.5.
- Kudermetova's double-fault rate is 6.5% (career 1601 in 371 matches, ~4.3 per match).
- Boulard's double-fault rate is 8.1% (career 315 in 102 matches, ~3.1 per match).
- Combined average ~7.4 double faults per match, close to the line.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Polina Kudermetova

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#41Liudmila Samsonova

4-6 6-4 6-1#118Alina Charaeva

6-1 6-2#380Clervie Ngounoue

1-6 6-2 6-3#190Jessika Ponchet

6-0 6-3#23Marie Bouzkova

4-6 6-4 6-3#150Priscilla Hon

6-3 4-6 6-4#118Alina Charaeva

6-3 6-3#86Xiyu Wang

7-6(2) 6-7(5) 6-3#174Viktoriya Tomova

6-1 7-6(5)#160Anouk Koevermans

4-6 6-2 6-4#229Alice Tubello

3-6 7-5 7-5#225Anastasia Gasanova

6-3 6-1#383Cagla Buyukakcay

6-3 0-6 6-1#188Fiona Ferro

6-4 6-4#183Whitney Osuigwe

Liv Boulard

7W 8L

6-1 6-4#400Ekaterina Kazionova

7-6(1) 6-2#840Paula Ormaechea

6-1 6-1—Emma Bousquet

6-3 6-2#431Jenny Lim

6-3 3-6 6-2—Hanna Bougouffa

6-1 6-0#374Deborah Chiesa

6-7(2) 6-4 6-4—Carolina Dibenedetto

6-4 7-6(2)#772Sarah Iliev

6-4 6-4#485Emily Seibold

3-6 6-2 6-3#834Stefania Bojica

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#890Claudia Ferrer Perez

7-5 6-2#436Maria Martinez Vaquero

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#669Clara Vlasselaer

6-1 6-1#953Giulia Gabba

6-1 6-3#293Federica Urgesi

Polina Kudermetova #113Uzbekistan0Liv BoulardFrance2

Player Profiles

Polina Kudermetova

Liv Boulard

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 8.5

Polina Kudermetova

Polina Kudermetova

Polina Kudermetova

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Liv Boulard @ 12.00

Liv Boulard set 1 @ 12.00

Polina Kudermetova

Liv Boulard