United KingdomWTA WimbledonFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Jessica Pegula #4United States2Iva Jovic #16United States1

Sets 4-6 · 6-3 · 6-1Sun 5 Jul 2026, 12:03 Predictions gradedFourth RoundGrass

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–443%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJessica Pegula · 12 places

Jessica Pegula

United States

Born on 1994-02-24. Her career-high singles ranking of No. 3 came on 2022-10-24, and the structured match data lists her at No. 4 entering this match.

Current ranking: #4
Peak ranking: #3 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Iva Jovic

United States

Born on 2007-12-06. Her career-high singles ranking of No. 16 came on 2026-03-30, matching the structured top-20 status carried into this Wimbledon run.

Current ranking: #16
Peak ranking: #16 · 2026
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Jul 2026, 06:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Pegula's 2-0 H2H record, superior serve/return stats, and major experience give her a clear edge over Jovic, whose recent three-set upset may leave her fatigued.

Best bets: Pegula to win, under 21.5 games, and under 6.5 aces.

Context

Jovic's last match was a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 win over Alexandrova lasting 2h30 on July 3.
- Pegula's last match was a 6-1, 6-3 win over Bouzas in 52 minutes on July 3.
- Jovic has played three matches this week, including a three-setter, while Pegula has had quicker wins.
Pegula leads H2H 2-0, with wins in February (6-4, 6-2) and April (6-4, 5-7, 6-3).
- In H2H, Pegula won 72% of first-serve points vs Jovic's 61%, and 41% of return points vs 33%.
- Both wins came in 2026, showing current form relevance.
Jovic's grass wins in 2025-2026 include opponents ranked 96, 37, 61, 32, and 19 (Alexandrova).
- Pegula's grass wins include top-100 players like Bouzas (52), Vidmanova (92), and Sorribes (253).
- Jovic lost to Raducanu (33) on grass in June in straight sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 7

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Pegula's H2H dominance, superior serve/return metrics, and more consistent grass-court form against stronger opposition give her a clear edge.
- Pegula leads H2H 2-0, both wins in 2026 on hard and clay, with superior serve stats (72% first-serve points won vs 61%) and return points won (41% vs 33%).
- Pegula's grass record in 2025-2026: 10-3, including a 6-1, 6-3 rout in her last match; Jovic is 14-2 on grass in 2025-2026 but faced lower-ranked opponents.
- Pegula's recent form: 4-1 in last 5 matches, all on grass, with dominant wins over top-100 players; Jovic is 3-2 in last 5, with a tough 3-setter vs Alexandrova.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJessica PegulaEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Recent first-set scores for both players and H2H data indicate a competitive start, likely exceeding 8.5 games.
- Pegula's last five first sets on grass: 6-1, 7-6, 7-5, 6-4, 7-6 — all over 8.5 games except one.
- Jovic's last five first sets: 6-3, 6-1, 7-6, 2-6, 6-2 — three over 8.5.
- H2H first sets: 6-4 and 6-4, both over 8.5.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Second sets have been competitive for both, with Jovic often pushing games, making over 8.5 likely.
- Pegula's last five second sets on grass: 6-3, 6-1, 6-3, 4-6, 6-7 — three over 8.5.
- Jovic's last five second sets: 3-6, 6-2, 6-0, 6-2, 6-4 — four over 8.5.
- H2H second sets: 6-2 and 5-7, one over 8.5.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players' recent grass matches and Pegula's serving edge point to a relatively short match, likely under 21.5 games.
- Pegula's last three grass matches averaged 18.3 games; Jovic's last three averaged 19.3 games.
- H2H matches averaged 20.5 games, with one under 21.5.
- Pegula's dominant serve stats (65% first-serve points won) and Jovic's lower ace rate (2.3%) suggest quick holds.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Pegula's strong first-set record and H2H trend make her the clear favorite to take the opening set.
- Pegula won the first set in both H2H meetings.
- Pegula's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, and she won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches.
- Jovic lost the first set in 2 of her last 5 matches, including against Raducanu and Fernandez.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJessica PegulaEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Pegula's straight-set H2H history and current grass form suggest she can win in two sets, though Jovic's resilience makes a 2-1 outcome possible.
- Pegula won both H2H meetings in straight sets (6-4, 6-2 and 6-4, 5-7, 6-3).
- Pegula's last three grass wins: 6-1, 6-3; 7-6, 6-1; 7-5, 6-3, showing ability to close in two sets.
- Jovic has dropped a set in 3 of her last 5 matches, including a 3-setter in her last match.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostJessica Pegula 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both players have low ace rates, and combined H2H ace counts average 5 per match, supporting under 6.5 total aces.
- Pegula's ace rate is 3.7% (career 1626 aces in 796 matches, ~2 per match); Jovic's is 2.3% (233 aces in 155 matches, ~1.5 per match).
- In H2H, Pegula had 6 aces in 2 matches (3 per match), Jovic had 4 (2 per match), total 5 per match.
- Grass typically yields more aces, but both players' low ace rates suggest under 6.5 is probable.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 6.5Market price1.85Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates suggest around 4 per match, but grass conditions and pressure could push it over 5.5.
- Pegula's double fault rate is 3.7% (1653 in 796 matches, ~2 per match); Jovic's is 3.1% (314 in 155 matches, ~2 per match).
- In H2H, both had 4 double faults in 2 matches (2 per match each), total 4 per match.
- Grass can lead to more double faults due to lower bounce, but recent form shows moderate numbers.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W6-4 5-7 6-3Jessica Pegula#4vIva Jovic#16Apr 4, 2026

W6-4 6-2Jessica Pegula#4vIva Jovic#16Feb 18, 2026

2 total meetings

Jessica Pegula

11W 4L

6-1 6-3#52Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

7-6(6) 6-1#253Sara Sorribes Tormo

7-5 6-3#92Darja Vidmanova

6-4 4-6 6-3#12Linda Noskova

6-4 6-7(4) 6-0#1Aryna Sabalenka

7-6(5) 7-6(8)#22Madison Keys

6-2 6-4#36Katerina Siniakova

1-6 6-3 6-3#72Kimberly Birrell

6-1 6-2#3Iga Swiatek

7-6(6) 6-2#28Anastasia Potapova

6-0 6-0#155Rebeka Masarova

6-4 6-0#51Zeynep Sonmez

6-1 6-4#13Marta Kostyuk

6-4 6-4#60Katie Boulter

6-2 6-2#55Yuliia Starodubtseva

Iva Jovic

10W 5L

6-3 3-6 6-4#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-1 6-2#96Tatjana Maria

7-6(1) 6-0#37Jaqueline Cristian

6-2 6-2#33Emma Raducanu

6-2 3-6 6-3#6Amanda Anisimova

6-2 6-2#32Alexandra Eala

6-3 6-4#61Antonia Ruzic

7-6(5) 6-7(3) 6-4#14Naomi Osaka

6-0 6-3#26Emma Navarro

6-4 6-2#32Alexandra Eala

6-4 4-6 6-1#26Emma Navarro

5-7 7-5 6-2#7Cori Gauff

7-5 6-2#79Taylor Townsend

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#57Mccartney Kessler

3-6 6-3 6-2#24Leylah Annie Fernandez