Hubert Hurkacz #96Poland22 – 3Jan-Lennard Struff #74Germany3

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' serving prowess and Struff's recent high-game matches, the total games are likely to exceed 38.5.

• Struff's last three matches have averaged 39.3 games per match (21, 31, 26 games won by Struff alone).
• Hurkacz's last three matches have averaged 20.7 games won per match, but against stronger servers, total games could rise.
• H2H on hard in 2024 had 39 total games; their indoor hard match in 2023 had only 17, but grass typically produces more games with big servers.
• Both players have ace rates above 10% (Hurkacz 11.9%, Struff 10.4%), leading to shorter points and more holds, pushing total games up.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

With both players possessing big serves and Struff's propensity for long matches, at least four sets are highly likely.

• Struff has played two five-set matches in his last three Wimbledon rounds, and his last five matches have all gone at least three sets.
• Hurkacz's last three Wimbledon matches have all been straight-set or four-set wins, but his overall recent form includes three-setters and a five-set loss to Tiafoe.
• H2H on grass (2016) ended in straight sets for Struff, but both players are now different; their last meeting on hard went to three tiebreaks.
• Both players have strong serve stats: Hurkacz 75% first-serve win, Struff 75% first-serve win, suggesting tiebreaks and extended sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.53

The read

Hurkacz's strong start in recent matches and high first-set conversion rate give him a slight edge to take the opener.

• Hurkacz has won the first set in his last three Wimbledon matches, including against top-25 opponents Paul and Ruud.
• Struff lost the first set in his five-set win over Nakashima but won it against Medvedev and Baez; his first-set performance is inconsistent.
• Hurkacz's first-set win conversion rate is 83% career, indicating he often capitalizes on early leads.
• On grass, Hurkacz's serve is particularly effective early, with a 75% first-serve win rate.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Given both players' serving strength and recent tiebreak frequency, at least one tiebreak is almost certain.

• Struff has played a tiebreak in each of his last five matches, including three tiebreaks in his five-set win over Nakashima.
• Hurkacz has played tiebreaks in two of his last three Wimbledon matches (vs. Paul and Ofner).
• Both players have tiebreak win rates around 50-52% career, indicating frequent tiebreak appearances.
• H2H on hard in 2024 featured three tiebreaks; their serving styles naturally lead to tiebreaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Both players are prolific servers on grass, making over 25.5 total aces a strong possibility in a match expected to go at least four sets.

• Hurkacz averages 11.9% ace rate; in a four-set match, he could hit 15+ aces.
• Struff averages 10.4% ace rate; in his five-setter vs. Nakashima, he likely hit over 20 aces.
• Combined, their ace rates suggest around 25-30 aces in a typical four-set match.
• Grass surface amplifies ace counts for tall servers like Hurkacz (196 cm) and Struff (193 cm).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

With Struff's elevated double fault rate and the likelihood of a long match, over 8.5 double faults is a reasonable expectation.

• Hurkacz's double fault rate is 3.6%, Struff's is 4.6%.
• In a four-set match, Struff could commit 4-5 double faults, Hurkacz 3-4, totaling around 8-9.
• Struff's higher double fault rate and pressure situations in tiebreaks could increase the count.
• Grass can sometimes lead to more double faults due to aggressive second serves.