Felix Auger Aliassime #4Canada33 – 2Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #23Spain2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Auger Aliassime's superior serve metrics, H2H dominance, and strong grass-court form give him a clear edge in this Bo5 match.

• H2H: Auger Aliassime leads 4-1 overall, including a 2023 grass-court win in straight sets.
• Surface: Auger Aliassime has a 6-2 grass record in 2026 and 34 career grass wins vs. Davidovich Fokina's 24.
• Serve: Auger Aliassime wins 75% on first serve and saves 63.2% of break points, both superior to Davidovich Fokina's 66.9% and 59.7%.
• Form: Auger Aliassime has won 8 of last 10 matches, all in straight sets at Wimbledon, while Davidovich Fokina lost to Tommy Paul on grass recently.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83

The read

With both players holding serve well and a history of long H2H matches, a 4+ set match with over 36.5 games is likely.

• H2H: 3 of 5 matches went over 36.5 games, including a 5-setter at 2025 Australian Open.
• Bo5 grass matches between top-25 players average ~38 games.
• Both players have strong hold rates on grass: Auger Aliassime 75% first-serve wins, Davidovich Fokina 66.9%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Auger Aliassime's serve and H2H dominance suggest he can cover a -3.5 game handicap in a Bo5 match.

• Auger Aliassime's average games won per match in Wimbledon: 19, 20, 18; Davidovich Fokina: 19, 18, 19.
• H2H: Auger Aliassime won by 4+ games in 3 of 4 wins.
• Surface edge: Auger Aliassime's serve gives him a higher margin on grass.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Davidovich Fokina's grass-court ability and H2H history suggest he will extend the match to at least 4 sets.

• H2H: 3 of 5 matches went to 4 or 5 sets.
• Davidovich Fokina has pushed top players on grass, taking a set off Tommy Paul and winning Mallorca.
• Auger Aliassime's straight-set wins at Wimbledon were against lower-ranked opponents; Davidovich Fokina is a tougher test.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.59

The read

Auger Aliassime's momentum and strong second-set record at Wimbledon make him the favorite for set 2.

• Auger Aliassime has won the second set in all three Wimbledon matches this year.
• Davidovich Fokina lost the second set in his only grass loss to Tommy Paul.
• Career second-set win rate: Auger Aliassime 55%, Davidovich Fokina 52%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

With strong serving and close H2H sets, a tiebreak is highly probable in this match.

• H2H: 4 of 5 matches featured at least one tiebreak.
• Auger Aliassime tiebreak win rate: 59% career; Davidovich Fokina: 49%.
• Both players have played tiebreaks in recent Wimbledon matches: Auger Aliassime 2, Davidovich Fokina 2.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Auger Aliassime's high ace count on grass will push the total over 21.5, even with Davidovich Fokina's low ace output.

• Auger Aliassime averages 11% ace rate (career 5353 aces in 659 matches).
• Davidovich Fokina has a low ace rate (3.9%) but faces a big server, so total aces will be driven by Auger Aliassime.
• In Bo5 grass matches, Auger Aliassime can hit 15+ aces alone; combined with Davidovich Fokina's few, over 21.5 is likely.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and a long match on grass could yield over 7.5 double faults.

• Auger Aliassime double-fault rate: 4.9% (career 2402 DFs in 659 matches).
• Davidovich Fokina double-fault rate: 3.3% (career 1347 DFs in 570 matches).
• In Bo5 grass matches, pressure can increase double faults; combined average ~8 per match.