Timo Legout vs Ozan Baris: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Baris's superior hard-court form in 2026 and stronger serve metrics give him a structural edge in this matchup.
- Baris has won 13 of 16 hard-court matches in 2026 (81.3%), while Legout is 9-4 (69.2%) on hard this year.
- Baris holds a 67% win-on-first-serve rate vs Legout's 64.8%, and a higher ace rate (5.1% vs 2.4%).
- Baris has won 9 of his last 10 matches, including wins over higher-ranked opponents (Ficovich #197, Trotter #420).
- Legout's last 5 matches include a loss to #400 Fenty and a win over #150 Sakamoto, but Baris's form is more consistent.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOzan BarisEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match data shows a trend toward higher total games, and both players' return abilities support a competitive match exceeding 21.5 games.
- Legout's last 5 matches averaged 20.8 total games, but 3 of 5 went over 21.5.
- Baris's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Both players have solid return stats (Legout 43% return points won, Baris 41%), suggesting potential for breaks and longer games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's competitiveness and Baris's lack of dominant margins make Legout +3.5 games a strong probability.
- Legout's recent losses have been by margins of 8, 8, and 8 games, but his wins are often dominant (6-4, 6-3).
- Baris's wins are typically by 4-7 games, not blowouts.
- Legout's return game and fighting spirit (64% deciding-set wins) suggest he can keep the match close.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTimo Legout +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
With both players holding serve effectively, the first set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.
- Baris's last 5 first sets: 6-1, 6-4, 7-6, 6-1, 1-6 — 3 of 5 went over 9.5 games.
- Legout's last 5 first sets: 6-4, 6-3, 1-6, 6-3, 6-1 — 2 of 5 went over 9.5, but against stronger servers it could be tighter.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 65%, indicating holds are likely, pushing the set toward 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Baris's recent second sets have been longer, and both players' hold rates support a set that could exceed 9.5 games.
- Baris's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 5-7, 6-2, 7-5, 6-3 — 4 of 5 went over 9.5 games.
- Legout's last 5 second sets: 6-3, 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 — 2 of 5 went over 9.5, but against Baris's serve, a tighter set is possible.
- Career break-point save rates (Legout 55.4%, Baris 59.6%) suggest neither player is easily broken, extending games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Baris's high first-set win rate in recent matches and strong career conversion suggest he is likely to take the opener.
- Baris has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches (80%), including all four matches this tournament.
- Legout has won the first set in 10 of his last 15 matches (66.7%), but lost it against Fenty and Walton recently.
- Baris's first-set win conversion rate for his career is 86%, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostOzan BarisEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's elevated double-fault rate and Baris's moderate rate make over 5.5 double faults likely in a full match.
- Legout has a high double-fault rate of 4.6% (career 578 DFs in 193 matches), averaging ~3-4 per match.
- Baris has a 3.6% double-fault rate, averaging ~2-3 per match.
- In a competitive match with pressure points, combined double faults could exceed 5.5.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Baris's higher ace rate and the potential for a longer match make over 7.5 total aces a reasonable outcome.
- Baris averages 5.1 aces per 100 points, which in a typical Bo3 match could yield 5-7 aces alone.
- Legout averages 2.4 aces per 100 points, contributing 2-3 aces.
- Combined, they could reach 8+ aces if the match extends to 22+ games.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Timo Legout #895France2Ozan Baris #696United States0

Player Profiles

Timo Legout

Ozan Baris

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Ozan Baris

Ozan Baris

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Timo Legout

Ozan Baris