Amanda Anisimova #6United States11 – 2Madison Keys #22United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75

The read

Keys' superior grass-court form and recent dominance give her a clear edge, though Anisimova's H2H win and ranking keep it competitive.

• Keys is 9-1 on grass in 2026, with a title at Eastbourne and a dominant 6-1 6-4 win over Swan in the last round.
• Anisimova is 3-1 on grass this year but needed a third-set tiebreak to beat Kenin, showing vulnerability.
• Keys has a higher career win percentage on grass (63 wins vs. 28 for Anisimova) and a stronger first-serve win rate (69% vs. 64%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of strong serving and competitive recent matches points to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games.

• Anisimova's last match had 31 games (6-2 4-6 7-6), and Keys' last three-setter had 32 games.
• Both players have high hold rates on grass, with Keys saving 59% of break points and Anisimova 57%.
• The H2H match went three sets with 27 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The recent frequency of three-setters for both players and their competitive history make over 2.5 sets likely.

• Anisimova's last match went three sets, and 4 of her last 15 matches went the distance.
• Keys has played three-setters in 2 of her last 5 grass matches.
• Both players have deciding-set win rates around 50%, indicating they often push matches to a third set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The grass surface and both players' serving power make over 8.5 total aces a strong possibility.

• Keys averages 7.1 aces per match career, and Anisimova hit 20 aces in her last match.
• On grass, both players' ace rates increase; Keys had 5 aces in the H2H on indoor hard.
• Anisimova's ace rate is 3.5% career but likely higher on grass given her recent 20-ace performance.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have shown vulnerability to double faults, especially in pressure situations, making over 6.5 likely.

• Anisimova has a double-fault rate of 5.6% career, and Keys had 12 double faults in the H2H.
• On grass, the lower bounce can lead to more double faults; Anisimova had 3 in the H2H.
• Keys' double-fault rate is 3.6% career, but she can be erratic under pressure.