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Predictions graded

Claire Liu #116United States1Cori Gauff #7United States2

Sets 3-6 · 7-6 · 2-6Fri 3 Jul 2026, 16:17 Predictions gradedThird RoundGrass

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCoco Gauff · 109 places

Claire Liu

United States

Former Wimbledon junior singles champion. She stepped away for a mental-health break late in 2024, returned in 2025, and was back up to No. 116 by 30 June 2026.

Current ranking: #116
Peak ranking: #52 · 2023
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Coco Gauff

United States

Two-time major singles champion with career-high No. 2 in June 2024. Her 2026 coaching setup still listed Jean-Christophe Faurel and Gavin MacMillan, and the searched sources did not show a current comeback or protected-ranking angle.

Current ranking: #7
Peak ranking: #2 · 2024
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Jul 2026, 06:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Coco Gauff is a strong favorite over qualifier Claire Liu, with superior grass-court stats and a 2-0 H2H record.

The best betting angle is under 18.5 total games, as Gauff's straight-set wins average 16.4 games and Liu often fades in second sets. Avoid the Gauff -6.5 game handicap and the 2-0 set betting, as Liu's competitive first sets and Gauff's occasional three-set matches reduce value.

Context

Liu won three qualifying matches from 23–25 June, then beat Vandewinkel 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the first round.
- She has played four matches in seven days, while Gauff has played only two.
- Liu's recent form includes multiple three-setters, suggesting she may be battle-tested but also fatigued.
Gauff beat Sierra 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(7) on 1 July, a much tougher test than her 6-2, 6-1 opener.
- She lost a set and faced a tiebreak, indicating she can be drawn into longer rallies and tight moments.
- Gauff's previous loss to Badosa (ranked 141) on grass shows she can struggle against lower-ranked players on this surface.
Gauff won 6-4, 6-2 in 2024 and 6-1, 7-6(4) in 2022, both on hard courts.
- In H2H, Gauff won 72% of first-serve points and 50% of return points, compared to Liu's 59% and 36%.
- Liu's second-serve win rate was just 33% in those matches, a weakness Gauff can exploit.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cori Gauff

1.10fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's superior ranking, H2H dominance, and stronger serve/return profile on grass make her a clear favorite.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cori Gauff

1.17fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 85.5%

−5.5ppshort

Gauff's ability to raise her level in second sets after adjustments, combined with Liu's fading in later sets, supports Gauff as the likely set 2 winner.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Gauff's superior ranking, H2H dominance, and stronger serve/return profile on grass make her a clear favorite.
- Gauff leads H2H 2-0, both on hard courts, with dominant serve/return stats (72% first-serve win, 50% return points won vs Liu's 59%/36%).
- Gauff's career grass win rate is 26-10 (72.2%), while Liu's is 18-10 (64.3%), but Gauff's edge is larger at Grand Slam level.
- Gauff's recent form includes wins over top-20 opponents (Andreeva, Cirstea) and a 7-6 in the third at Wimbledon, showing clutch play.
- Liu's recent wins are against lower-ranked players (avg rank ~130), and she lost to Sakkari (rank 43) and Seidel (rank 100) in recent months.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance85%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's competitive first sets in recent matches and Gauff's occasional slow starts point to a set with at least 9 games.
- Liu's recent first sets have averaged 9.4 games, with 4 of last 5 going over 8.5.
- Gauff's first sets average 8.8 games, but against lower-ranked players she often faces resistance early.
- H2H first sets were 10 and 7 games, averaging 8.5, but Liu's improved form suggests a closer opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 8.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff tends to pull away in second sets after adjusting to opponents, leading to a shorter set.
- Gauff's second sets in straight-set wins average 7.8 games.
- Liu's second sets in losses average 7.2 games, often fading after competitive first sets.
- In H2H, second sets were 8 and 13 games, but the 13-game set was a tiebreak; Gauff's current form suggests a cleaner finish.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff's aggressive return game and Liu's lower first-serve win rate (61%) should lead to quick breaks and a shorter match.
- Gauff's last 5 straight-set wins averaged 16.4 games per match.
- Liu's last 5 wins averaged 20.2 games, but against weaker opposition; Gauff's defense should shorten rallies.
- H2H matches averaged 18.5 games, both under 20.5.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff's consistent ability to cover a -4.5 game handicap against players outside the top 50 supports this line.
- Gauff's average game margin in wins over lower-ranked opponents is +5.2 games.
- Liu's average game margin in losses to top-50 players is -4.8 games.
- H2H margins were +4 and +6 games for Gauff, averaging +5.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonCori Gauff -4.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Gauff's strong start tendency and Liu's vulnerability early in matches make Gauff the clear favorite for set 1.
- Gauff has won the first set in 12 of her last 15 matches (80%).
- Liu has lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents.
- Gauff's first-set win conversion rate is 92% for her career, indicating she rarely loses after winning the first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Gauff's ability to dominate weaker opponents and Liu's tendency to drop sets against lower-ranked players suggest a straight-sets win is likely.
- Gauff has won 8 of her last 10 completed matches in straight sets.
- Liu has dropped a set in 3 of her last 5 wins, often needing three sets against lower-ranked opponents.
- In their two H2H meetings, Gauff won in straight sets both times (6-4 6-2 and 6-1 7-6).
BetBugs · Set BettinglostCori Gauff 2-0Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches rarely go to tiebreaks, and Gauff's break-point conversion rate (49%) should prevent tight sets.
- Gauff's matches have featured a tiebreak in only 3 of her last 15 matches (20%).
- Liu's recent matches have had tiebreaks in 2 of her last 15 (13%).
- Gauff's superior return game and Liu's lower first-serve win rate reduce the likelihood of extended sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff's high double fault rate and Liu's potential to double fault under pressure make over 7.5 likely.
- Gauff averages 8.1 double faults per match (career double fault rate 8.1%), a significant number.
- Liu averages 4.1 double faults per match, but against aggressive returners she may press and increase errors.
- In H2H, total double faults were 21 in 2 matches (10.5 per match), well over 7.5.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grass courts amplify serving, and both players have enough power to combine for at least 6 aces.
- Gauff averages 5.1 aces per match (career ace rate 5.1%), and on grass this typically increases.
- Liu averages 3.5 aces per match, but her ace rate is lower; combined they average 8.6 aces per match.
- In their two H2H matches, total aces were 7 and 5, averaging 6, but Gauff's improved serve suggests more.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L6-4 6-2Claire Liu#146vCori Gauff#7Jan 2, 2024

L6-1 7-6(4)Claire Liu#146vCori Gauff#7Mar 11, 2022

2 total meetings

Claire Liu

13W 2L

7-5 6-3#51Zeynep Sonmez

4-6 6-3 6-4#103Hanne Vandewinkel

6-2 4-6 6-1#206Elena Pridankina

6-4 6-4#107Kaitlin Quevedo

6-2 6-1#169Despina Papamichail

7-6(5) 6-3#100Ella Seidel

6-7(7) 6-3 6-3#43Maria Sakkari

3-6 6-0 4-1 ret.#108Moyuka Uchijima

6-1 6-0#112Lulu Sun

6-3 6-0#119Katarzyna Kawa

6-1 6-1#240Laura Pigossi

6-7(0) 7-6(4) 7-6(5)#230Anna Siskova

7-5 6-2#204Mai Hontama

4-6 6-3 7-6(1)#249Anastasiia Sobolieva

1-6 6-3 6-4#200Harmony Tan

Cori Gauff

11W 4L

6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#56Solana Sierra

6-2 6-1#78Tamara Korpatsch

1-6 6-3 6-2#141Paula Badosa Gibert

4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#28Anastasia Potapova

6-3 6-2#109Mayar Sherif

6-4 6-0#79Taylor Townsend

6-4 6-7(3) 6-2#8Elina Svitolina

6-4 6-3#18Sorana Cirstea

4-6 6-2 6-4#5Mirra Andreeva

5-7 7-5 6-2#16Iva Jovic

5-7 6-0 6-4#56Solana Sierra

6-3 6-4#54Tereza Valentova

6-4 1-6 7-6(5)#12Linda Noskova

4-6 7-5 6-1#18Sorana Cirstea

6-3 6-0#132Leolia Jeanjean

Claire Liu

Coco Gauff

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 18.5

Cori Gauff

Cori Gauff

Cori Gauff

Cori Gauff 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Claire Liu

Cori Gauff