United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Quentin Halys #101France0Marcos Giron #86United States3

Sets 6-7 · 3-6 · 4-6Thu 2 Jul 2026, 13:03 Predictions gradedSecond RoundGrass

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–50%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarcos Giron · 15 places

Quentin Halys

France

Career-high No. 46 came on 2025-06-30. ATP's bio lists hard as his favourite surface, though he has also reached the Wimbledon third round in 2023 and 2024.

Current ranking: #101
Peak ranking: #46 · 2025
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Marcos Giron

United States

Career-high No. 37 came on 2024-08-05. ATP's bio lists hard as his favourite surface, but his grass resume includes the 2024 Newport title and five straight Wimbledon second-round runs through 2025.

Current ranking: #86
Peak ranking: #37 · 2024
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Jul 2026, 06:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Halys' superior serve and recent grass form give him a slight edge over Giron in a match likely to feature multiple tight sets.

Back Halys to win, over 40.5 total games, and a tiebreak in the match, with value on a 3-1 Halys correct score.

Context

Halys lost to Toby Samuel in Eastbourne qualifying on 20 June, then got a lucky loser spot after Joao Fonseca withdrew.
- He received a first-round bye, so he played only two matches on grass before Wimbledon.
- His last grass win was a 3-1 victory over Matteo Arnaldi at Wimbledon, showing he can perform on the surface despite the light schedule.
Giron lost to Jack Draper (rank 131) 6-4, 7-6 at Eastbourne on 22 June.
- He lost to Jan Choinski (rank 100) 7-5, 6-7, 7-6 at Eastbourne on 21 June.
- Halys' ace rate of 13.1% is significantly higher than Draper's and Choinski's, making him an even bigger serving threat.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Halys' superior serve and recent grass win over a top-40 opponent give him a slight edge in a Bo5 grass match.
- Halys leads recent grass form: 2-3 in 2026 grass season with wins over Arnaldi (rank 35) and Bellucci (67), while Giron is 4-5 on grass in 2026 but lost to Draper (131) and Choinski (100) in last 5.
- Halys' serve is a bigger weapon on grass: 13.1% ace rate vs Giron's 6.4%, and 77.4% first-serve win rate vs 71.8%.
- Halys won his last grass match in 4 sets vs Arnaldi (rank 35) at Wimbledon, showing strong current grass level; Giron needed 4 sets to beat Moutet (39) but struggled vs lower-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostQuentin HalysEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set trends for both players show a high likelihood of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Halys' last 5 first sets: 3-6, 3-6, 6-1, 2-6, 4-6 — average 9.6 games, with 4 of 5 over 9.5.
- Giron's last 5 first sets: 4-6, 4-6, 5-7, 3-6, 6-3 — average 9.8 games, with 4 of 5 over 9.5.
- Both players have break-point save rates around 60%, leading to extended games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive Bo5 matches between evenly ranked players on grass often exceed 38.5 games, supported by their recent match lengths and serve hold rates.
- Halys' last 5 matches averaged 34.6 total games; Giron's last 5 averaged 35.4, with both players frequently going over 38.5 in Bo5 or extended matches.
- H2H at 2020 Roland Garros went 5 sets with 62 total games, indicating competitive matches between them.
- Both players have break-point save rates around 60-63%, suggesting many holds and potential tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 38.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Halys' recent first-set success and Giron's slow starts on grass give Halys the edge in set 1.
- Halys won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including vs Arnaldi (rank 35) on grass.
- Giron lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including vs Draper and Choinski on grass.
- Halys' first-set win conversion rate is 80% career, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostQuentin HalysEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Evenly matched players in Bo5 on grass often go at least 4 sets.
- Halys' last Bo5 match went 4 sets; Giron's last Bo5 went 4 sets.
- Their only H2H went 5 sets.
- Both players have similar rankings and competitive recent form.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches and grass-court dynamics make a tiebreak highly probable.
- Halys has a 53% career tiebreak win rate; Giron 51%, both average.
- Halys' last 5 matches included 2 tiebreaks; Giron's last 5 included 4 tiebreaks.
- Grass often produces tiebreaks due to strong serving.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Halys' high ace rate and the Bo5 format on grass make over 21.5 total aces likely.
- Halys averages 13.1 aces per match; Giron averages 6.4, but in Bo5 matches ace counts rise.
- Halys hit 15 aces in their only H2H (5-set match); Giron hit 8.
- Grass surface amplifies ace rates for big servers like Halys.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 21.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-5 3-6 6-7(5) 7-5 8-6Quentin Halys#95vMarcos Giron#92Sep 29, 2020

1 total meetings

Quentin Halys

8W 7L

3-6 6-1 7-6(5) 6-3#35Matteo Arnaldi

6-3 6-4#30Ugo Humbert

6-1 7-5#258Giles Hussey

6-2 6-4#123Toby Samuel

6-4 6-2#90Sho Shimabukuro

6-4 6-3 5-7 6-2#3Alexander Zverev

6-4 7-6(4) 7-6(8)#30Ugo Humbert

6-3 7-6(4) 6-3#67Mattia Bellucci

6-2 6-4#42Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-1 2-0 ret.#54Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-3 7-6(3)#83Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-4 6-2#90Sho Shimabukuro

6-7(9) 6-3 6-4#98Jaime Faria

6-2 3-6 7-6(6)#68Hamad Medjedovic

6-1 6-7(1) 7-6(2)#35Matteo Arnaldi

Marcos Giron

5W 10L

4-6 6-4 7-5 6-4#39Corentin Moutet

6-4 7-6(5)#131Jack Draper

7-5 6-7(2) 7-6(5)#100Jan Choinski

3-6 7-6(3) 6-2#285Charles Broom

3-6 7-5 7-6(8)#34Ignacio Buse

7-5 6-7(4) 6-1#82Rinky Hijikata

7-5 2-6 6-1#385Daniel Evans

6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5)#5Ben Shelton

7-6(3) 7-5#183Roberto Bautista Agut

7-5 6-2 6-4#102Yibing Wu

6-3 4-6 7-6(3)#5Ben Shelton

6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(5)#335Max Schoenhaus

6-3 6-2#219Sumit Nagal

7-5 6-4#62Marin Cilic

6-3 2-6 7-6(1)#65Roman Andres Burruchaga