Karolina Pliskova #73Czechia00 – 2Iga Swiatek #3Poland2

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Swiatek's superior return game and grass-court pedigree, combined with a dominant H2H record, make her a strong favorite despite Pliskova's recent grass-court wins.

• Swiatek leads H2H 3-0, winning all matches in straight sets on hard and clay.
• Swiatek's career win rate on grass is 29-7 (80.6%), while Pliskova's is 71-38 (65.1%).
• Swiatek's return points won percentage (48%) significantly outpaces Pliskova's (42%).
• Swiatek's recent form includes dominant wins over top-50 opponents, while Pliskova has struggled against top-30 players.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Once Swiatek establishes control, she tends to pull away in the second set, especially against a tiring Pliskova.

• Swiatek has won the second set 6-2 or 6-3 in four of her last six wins.
• Pliskova has lost the second set 6-1 or 6-2 in two of her last three losses.
• H2H second sets have been one-sided: 6-2, 6-1, 6-0.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Swiatek's efficiency in closing out matches and Pliskova's potential for quick service breaks point to a relatively short match.

• Swiatek's last five wins have averaged 17.6 games per match.
• Pliskova's recent grass-court wins have averaged 20.5 games, but against weaker opposition.
• H2H matches averaged 19.3 games, all in straight sets.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36

The read

Swiatek's strong start tendency and Pliskova's occasional slow openings make Swiatek the clear favorite for the first set.

• Swiatek has won the first set in 94% of her career matches when winning the match.
• Pliskova has lost the first set in two of her last three losses.
• Swiatek's first-set win rate on grass in 2025-2026 is 80% (4-1).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Swiatek's ability to dominate from the baseline and Pliskova's vulnerability on second serve (45% win rate) suggest a straight-set victory is likely.

• Swiatek has won all three H2H meetings in straight sets.
• Pliskova's first-set win conversion is 87%, but Swiatek's is 94%, indicating Swiatek often starts strong.
• Swiatek's recent losses have come in three sets, but Pliskova's serve may not hold up against Swiatek's return on grass.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Pliskova's elite serving, especially on grass, will generate enough aces to clear the over, even if Swiatek contributes few.

• Pliskova averages 9.2 aces per match, with a career ace rate of 9.2%.
• Swiatek averages 3.9 aces per match, but Pliskova's high ace count should push the total over.
• On grass, Pliskova's ace rate typically increases due to the surface speed.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have high double fault rates, and the pressure of a Grand Slam match could lead to more errors on serve.

• Pliskova averages 5.1 double faults per match, with a career double fault rate of 5.1%.
• Swiatek averages 4.3 double faults per match.
• In H2H, Pliskova has committed 22 double faults in 3 matches (7.3 per match).