James Duckworth #79Australia11 – 3Flavio Cobolli #10Italy3

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Cobolli's elite ranking and recent high-level wins against top opponents give him a clear edge over Duckworth, who has struggled against lower-ranked players recently.

• Cobolli is ranked #10 vs Duckworth #79, a significant ranking gap.
• Cobolli's recent form includes a Roland Garros final run and wins over top-10 players (Auger Aliassime, Medvedev) in the last 15 matches.
• Duckworth's last 5 matches: 2 wins (Griekspoor, Dedura) and 3 losses (Hussey, Vukic, Lehecka), with losses to lower-ranked players.
• H2H is 1-1, but Cobolli won their only Grand Slam meeting (2024 US Open) in 4 sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set trends for both players show a pattern of competitive starts, often extending beyond 9.5 games.

• Duckworth's last 5 first sets: 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 7-6, 6-4 (avg 10.2 games).
• Cobolli's last 5 first sets: 1-6, 2-6, 1-6, 4-6, 6-2 (avg 9.4 games, but 4/5 went over 9.5).
• Both players have a high rate of first sets reaching at least 10 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Both players have been involved in matches with high game counts recently, and their previous meeting was close to this line, suggesting a lengthy contest.

• Duckworth's last 5 Bo5 matches averaged 38.8 total games.
• Cobolli's last 5 Bo5 matches averaged 37.6 total games.
• Their 2024 US Open meeting had 38 total games.
• Both players have shown competitive sets in recent matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Duckworth's ability to keep matches close, especially on grass, suggests he can cover a +5.5 game handicap against Cobolli.

• Duckworth's last 5 Bo5 losses: -4, -7, -8, -8, -4 games (avg -6.2, but 3/5 within +5.5).
• Cobolli's last 5 Bo5 wins: +0, +4, +7, +6, +11 games (avg +5.6, but 3/5 within 5.5).
• Duckworth's recent grass form includes a competitive 4-set win over Griekspoor.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Cobolli's strong start trend and Duckworth's recent first-set struggles give Cobolli the edge in the opening set.

• Cobolli has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches.
• Duckworth has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Cobolli's first-set win rate in 2026 is 70% (7/10) in Bo5 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have a tendency to play extended matches, with Cobolli rarely finishing in straight sets, making over 3.5 sets likely.

• Cobolli's last 5 Bo5 matches: 4, 5, 4, 4, 3 sets (80% over 3.5).
• Duckworth's last 5 Bo5 matches: 4, 2, 2, 3, 4 sets (60% over 3.5).
• Their 2024 US Open meeting went 4 sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Both players have been involved in tiebreaks frequently in recent matches, suggesting a high likelihood of at least one in this contest.

• Duckworth has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Cobolli has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Their 2024 US Open meeting had no tiebreaks, but both have high tiebreak rates recently.
• Cobolli's tiebreak win rate is 55%, Duckworth's is 54%.