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Predictions graded

Caty McNally #50United States0Elena Rybakina #2Kazakhstan2

Sets 1-6 · 2-6Thu 2 Jul 2026, 17:27 Predictions gradedSecond RoundGrass

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–443%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElena Rybakina · 48 places

Caty McNally

United States

McNally is a 24-year-old American right-hander from Cincinnati. She returned in late 2024 after elbow surgery and rebuilt her singles position through 2025 before carrying that comeback into this grass swing.

Current ranking: #50
Peak ranking: #50
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 181 cm

Elena Rybakina

Kazakhstan

Rybakina is a 27-year-old right-hander and the 2022 Wimbledon champion. WTA lists hard court as her favorite surface, and she added the 2026 Australian Open title earlier this season.

Current ranking: #2
Peak ranking: #2
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 184 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Jul 2026, 07:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Rybakina's elite serve and grass pedigree make her the favorite, but a recent hip issue and three-set struggles open the door for McNally's sharp form.

The best betting value lies in over 20.5 total games and over 9.5 games in each set, while the 2-1 Rybakina set betting offers a small edge. Avoid heavy favorites and handicaps due to expected competitiveness.

Context

Official WTA updates confirm Rybakina withdrew from Bad Homburg (late June 2026) due to right hip discomfort.
- She returned for Wimbledon but dropped the first set 4-6 to Boisson before winning in three, suggesting the hip may still be a factor.
- The quick one-day turnaround after a three-setter adds physical strain on the affected area.
McNally is 6-3 on grass in 2026, with wins in 's-Hertogenbosch, Nottingham, and Eastbourne before Wimbledon.
- She opened Wimbledon with a 7-5, 6-3 win over Elena-Gabriela Ruse, needing only two sets.
- Her last five matches average 21.6 games, showing she consistently plays competitive sets.
Rybakina's last six matches: three-set wins over Boisson, Maria, Zheng, and Ruse; straight-set loss to Eala; three-set loss to Boulter.
- Her deciding-set win rate is 57% career, but the frequency of three-setters suggests vulnerability.
- McNally has forced a deciding set in three of her last ten matches, including against top-50 opponents.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Rybakina's elite serve and superior grass pedigree give her a clear edge, despite recent hip concern and three-set opener.
- Rybakina career grass win% 71.4% (40-16) vs McNally 63.6% (35-20)
- Rybakina first-serve win% 70.1% vs McNally 62.8%, ace rate 8.0% vs 2.8%
- Rybakina first-set win conversion 90% vs McNally 85%
- H2H: Rybakina won most recent meeting 7-5 4-6 6-3 on hard (2025)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonElena RybakinaEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91
The read
McNally's improved grass form and Rybakina's recent three-set struggles suggest a match likely to exceed 20.5 games.
- McNally's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 games, Rybakina's 20.4
- H2H 2025 match had 31 games, 2021 had 10 (retirement)
- Both players' recent grass matches trend toward competitive sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players tend to start with tight sets on grass, and McNally's serve is solid enough to avoid a quick blowout.
- McNally's last 5 set1 games: 10, 9, 9, 12, 10 (avg 10.0)
- Rybakina's last 5 set1 games: 10, 12, 13, 12, 9 (avg 11.2)
- H2H 2025 set1 had 12 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Second sets in their recent matches often go beyond 9.5 games, reflecting competitive dynamics even when one player dominates.
- McNally's last 5 set2 games: 8, 10, 6, 13, 13 (avg 10.0)
- Rybakina's last 5 set2 games: 7, 10, 12, 8, 10 (avg 9.4)
- Both players have shown ability to extend second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Rybakina's strong serving and high first-set win rate make her likely to start fast, though McNally's recent grass form adds some uncertainty.
- Rybakina first-set win conversion 90% career, McNally 85%
- Rybakina holds serve more easily on grass (70.1% first-serve win%)
- McNally dropped first set in 3 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonElena RybakinaEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
If Rybakina takes set 1, her momentum and serve should carry set 2; even if she drops set 1, her resilience in three-setters (57% deciding-set win%) supports a bounce-back.
- Rybakina won set 2 in 4 of last 5 wins, often after tight first sets
- McNally's second-set win rate in recent matches is 50% (3-3 in last 6)
- Rybakina's return points won 44% vs McNally 46%, but serve advantage persists
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonElena RybakinaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rybakina's recent pattern of three-setters and McNally's fighting spirit on grass increase the chance of a decider.
- Rybakina's last 3 matches all went three sets
- McNally played three-setters in 3 of last 10 matches
- H2H 2025 went three sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rybakina's elite ace rate on grass should push the total over 7.5, even with McNally contributing few.
- Rybakina ace rate 8.0% (career 3203 aces in 598 matches)
- McNally ace rate 2.8% but faces Rybakina's powerful serve
- H2H 2025: Rybakina hit 10 aces, McNally 2
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and pressure on grass could lead to over 5.5 combined.
- McNally double-fault rate 6.2% (career 1441 DFs in 363 matches)
- Rybakina double-fault rate 4.2% (career 1671 DFs in 598 matches)
- H2H 2025: McNally 7 DFs, Rybakina 10 DFs
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

L7-5 4-6 6-3Caty McNally#50vElena Rybakina#2Sep 26, 2025

W6-4 0-0 ret.Caty McNally#50vElena Rybakina#2Apr 5, 2021

2 total meetings

Caty McNally

9W 6L

7-5 6-3#71Elena Gabriela Ruse

6-3 4-6 6-4#47Petra Marcinko

6-3 6-0#97Emiliana Arango

7-5 6-7(5) 6-3#42Janice Tjen

6-4 7-6(3)#73Karolina Pliskova

6-3 6-0#61Antonia Ruzic

6-4 6-4#94Ajla Tomljanovic

6-4 6-3#56Solana Sierra

4-6 6-0 6-4#26Emma Navarro

6-4 6-0#11Belinda Bencic

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#94Ajla Tomljanovic

6-1 6-7(5) 6-3#3Iga Swiatek

6-2 6-3#65Daria Kasatkina

6-2 6-3#13Marta Kostyuk

6-3 2-6 7-6(2)#36Katerina Siniakova

Elena Rybakina

10W 5L

6-4 1-6 6-3#154Lois Boisson

7-5 6-4#32Alexandra Eala

6-7(4) 7-5 6-0#96Tatjana Maria

7-5 2-6 6-4#60Katie Boulter

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#55Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-2 6-2#89Veronika Erjavec

2-6 6-4 6-4#8Elina Svitolina

6-0 6-2#73Karolina Pliskova

6-4 6-3#32Alexandra Eala

6-4 6-1#43Maria Sakkari

7-6(8) 6-4#28Anastasia Potapova

4-6 6-4 6-3#138Qinwen Zheng

4-6 6-3 7-5#71Elena Gabriela Ruse

7-5 6-1#9Karolina Muchova

7-5 6-1#5Mirra Andreeva