Blake Ellis vs Ozan Baris: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Baris's superior recent form and surface-specific success on U.S. hard courts give him a clear edge over Ellis, who has struggled against similar-level opponents recently.
- Baris is 12-3 on hard courts in 2026, including a recent M25 Wichita title in June 2026.
- Baris has won 8 of his last 10 matches, with strong wins over higher-ranked opponents like Juan Pablo Ficovich (rank 197) and James Kent Trotter (rank 420).
- Ellis has a 16-12 hard-court record in 2026 but has lost 3 of his last 5 matches, including a loss to Enzo Aguiard (rank 492).
- Baris holds a higher return points won percentage (40% vs. 37%) and a better first-set win conversion rate (86% vs. 85%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOzan BarisEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches feature extended sets and tiebreaks, pushing total games above 21.5 in most contests.
- Ellis's last 5 matches have averaged 24.6 total games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5 games.
- Baris's last 5 matches have averaged 22.2 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5 games.
- Both players have high tiebreak rates: Ellis 54% career, Baris 62% career, indicating close sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve and forcing a tiebreak or extended games.
- Ellis's last 5 first sets have averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5 games.
- Baris's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5 games.
- Both players have strong tiebreak records, increasing the likelihood of a 7-6 or 7-5 first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even if one player dominates the first set, the second set tends to be tighter, with a slight lean toward over 9.5 games.
- Ellis's last 5 second sets have averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5 games.
- Baris's last 5 second sets have averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5 games.
- Both players have shown resilience in second sets, often forcing close scorelines.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Baris's strong start in recent matches and Ellis's tendency to drop the opening set make Baris the likely first-set winner.
- Baris has won the first set in 7 of his last 10 matches, including against top-200 opponent Ficovich.
- Ellis has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including against lower-ranked Aguiard and Gorzny.
- Baris's first-set win conversion rate of 86% is slightly higher than Ellis's 85%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonOzan BarisEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be closely contested, with a high chance of extending to a deciding set given both players' recent three-set frequency.
- Ellis has gone to three sets in 4 of his last 10 matches, including his most recent win over Sekulic.
- Baris has gone to three sets in 3 of his last 10 matches, showing he can be pushed to a decider.
- Both players have deciding-set win rates around 55%, indicating they are competitive in third sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' high tiebreak frequencies and competitive serving, at least one tiebreak is very likely in this match.
- Ellis has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 10 matches, with a career tiebreak win rate of 54%.
- Baris has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 10 matches, with a career tiebreak win rate of 62%.
- Both players have strong serve-and-hold games, leading to close sets and frequent tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players capable of hitting aces and the match likely to be extended, the total aces should surpass 8.5.
- Ellis has an ace rate of 10%, averaging about 5-6 aces per match in recent contests.
- Baris has an ace rate of 5.1%, averaging about 3-4 aces per match.
- Combined, their ace rates suggest a total around 8-10 aces in a typical two-set match, with potential for more in three sets.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have similar double fault rates, and a longer match increases the likelihood of exceeding 5.5 total double faults.
- Ellis has a double fault rate of 3.8%, averaging about 2-3 double faults per match.
- Baris has a double fault rate of 3.7%, also averaging about 2-3 double faults per match.
- In a three-set match, combined double faults could reach 6 or more.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Blake Ellis #502Australia0Ozan Baris #696United States2

Player Profiles

Blake Ellis

Ozan Baris

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Ozan Baris

Ozan Baris

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Blake Ellis

Ozan Baris