United KingdomWTA WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Anna Blinkova #114Russia1Marta Kostyuk #13Ukraine2

Sets 7-6 · 3-6 · 3-6Thu 2 Jul 2026, 13:18 Predictions gradedSecond RoundGrass

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–529%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarta Kostyuk · 101 places

Anna Blinkova

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 34 in August 2023. WTA says she has no stated surface preference and is comfortable across surfaces. Her best Wimbledon singles result is the third round.

Current ranking: #114
Peak ranking: #34 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: All surfaces
Hand: Right handed
Height: 179 cm

Marta Kostyuk

Ukraine

Reached a career-high No. 12 in June 2026. Her 2026 season includes titles in Madrid and Rouen and a Roland Garros semifinal. No reliable preferred-surface statement was verified in the requested search set.

Current ranking: #13
Peak ranking: #12 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Jul 2026, 07:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Marta Kostyuk is a strong favorite based on dominant H2H, elite 2026 form, and a lighter first-round workload, but her match-winner odds are too short.

The best betting value is on under 18.5 total games, as both players trend toward low-scoring matches and Kostyuk should control from the start. Avoid the 2-0 set betting and Blinkova handicap markets, where the odds overestimate competitiveness.

Context

Kostyuk is 17-1 on clay in 2026 with wins over Swiatek, Andreeva, and Svitolina.
- She won Madrid and Rouen titles and reached the Roland Garros semifinals in June 2026.
- Her Wimbledon opener was a quick 6-1, 6-2 victory over Podoroska.
Blinkova's first-round match went 6-7, 6-4, 6-1 against Starodubtseva.
- Kostyuk's first-round match was a straightforward 6-1, 6-2 win.
- Blinkova played 30 games in her opener compared to Kostyuk's 15.
Kostyuk won 6-2, 6-1 in their only H2H match.
- She won 54% of return points and converted 71% of break points.
- Blinkova won only 38% of return points and 31% on second serve.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Kostyuk's dominant H2H win, superior recent form against top opponents, and higher overall win rate make her a strong favorite on grass.
- Kostyuk won the only H2H 6-2 6-1 on hard in March 2025, dominating serve and return stats.
- Kostyuk is 17-1 on clay in 2026 with recent wins over Swiatek, Andreeva, and Svitolina, showing elite form.
- Blinkova is 6-3 on grass in 2026 but has lost to lower-ranked players like Preston and Starodubtseva recently.
- Kostyuk's career win rate is 63.8% vs Blinkova's 56%, with a 55% tiebreak win rate vs 50%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarta KostyukEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches and the H2H trend toward quick, low-game contests, making under 20.5 games probable.
- Kostyuk's last 5 wins averaged 16.6 games per match, with 4 of 5 under 20.5 games.
- Blinkova's recent losses averaged 17.3 games, with 3 of 5 under 20.5 games.
- The H2H match had only 15 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Kostyuk's dominant first sets and the H2H pattern suggest a quick set, though Blinkova's occasional tight sets add some risk.
- Kostyuk's last 5 first sets: 6-1, 6-1, 6-3, 7-5, 6-4 (average 8.2 games).
- Blinkova's last 5 first sets: 6-7, 3-6, 7-6, 4-6, 5-7 (average 10.4 games, but 3 of 5 over 9.5).
- The H2H first set was 6-2 (8 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kostyuk's strong winning margins and Blinkova's heavy losses suggest Kostyuk can cover a -4.5 game handicap.
- Kostyuk's average game margin in wins is +6.2 over her last 15 matches.
- Blinkova's average game margin in losses is -5.8 over her last 15 matches.
- The H2H margin was +9 for Kostyuk.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMarta Kostyuk -4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players tend to finish sets quickly, and Kostyuk's strong closing ability supports another under 9.5 games in set 2.
- Kostyuk's last 5 second sets: 6-2, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, 6-3 (average 8.0 games).
- Blinkova's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 7-5, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 (average 8.6 games, but 3 of 5 under 9.5).
- The H2H second set was 6-1 (7 games).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Kostyuk's exceptional first-set record and Blinkova's tendency to drop early sets make Kostyuk the clear favorite for set 1.
- Kostyuk has won the first set in 13 of her last 15 matches.
- Blinkova has lost the first set in 5 of her last 10 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents.
- Kostyuk's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMarta KostyukEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Kostyuk's ability to dominate sets against strong opponents and Blinkova's vulnerability to straight-set losses suggest a 2-0 outcome is likely.
- Kostyuk won the H2H in straight sets, losing only 3 games.
- Kostyuk has won 10 of her last 15 matches in straight sets, including against top-10 players.
- Blinkova has lost 6 of her last 15 matches in straight sets, including a 6-0 6-3 loss to Raducanu on grass.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostMarta Kostyuk 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to avoid tiebreaks, with Kostyuk's dominant sets and Blinkova's inconsistent form reducing the likelihood.
- Kostyuk has played only 2 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches.
- Blinkova has played 3 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches.
- The H2H had no tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
High double fault rates from both players make over 7.5 likely, though it's a marginal edge.
- Kostyuk's double fault rate is 7.4%, Blinkova's 6.5%, averaging ~7-8 double faults per match combined.
- In the H2H, Kostyuk had 3 double faults, Blinkova 4, totaling 7.
- Both players have high double fault rates, especially under pressure.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates and grass surface push the expected total just above 7.5, though it's a close call.
- Kostyuk averages 3.9% ace rate, Blinkova 3.3%, combining for ~7.2 aces per match on average.
- In the H2H, Kostyuk hit 5 aces, Blinkova unknown but likely 2-3, totaling ~7-8.
- Grass courts typically increase ace counts slightly.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 6-1Anna Blinkova#114vMarta Kostyuk#13Mar 23, 2025

1 total meetings

Anna Blinkova

8W 7L

6-7(3) 6-4 6-1#55Yuliia Starodubtseva

3-6 7-5 6-4#56Solana Sierra

7-6(4) 6-2#191Julia Avdeeva

4-6 6-3 6-3#117Taylah Preston

5-7 6-2 6-2#74Anna Bondar

6-3 6-2#65Daria Kasatkina

6-0 6-3#33Emma Raducanu

6-2 6-4#34Donna Vekic

6-1 6-3#821Jodie Anna Burrage

6-3 6-1#55Yuliia Starodubtseva

7-5 6-4#122Aliaksandra Sasnovich

7-6(4) 6-4#24Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-1 6-2#109Mayar Sherif

6-3 6-2#54Tereza Valentova

6-3 4-6 6-2#121Yue Yuan

Marta Kostyuk

14W 1L

6-1 6-2#574Nadia Podoroska

6-1 6-3#5Mirra Andreeva

6-3 2-6 6-2#8Elina Svitolina

7-5 6-1#3Iga Swiatek

6-4 6-3#62Viktorija Golubic

6-7(4) 6-3 6-3#101Katie Volynets

6-2 6-3#91Oksana Selekhmeteva

6-3 7-5#5Mirra Andreeva

6-2 1-6 6-1#28Anastasia Potapova

7-6(1) 6-0#12Linda Noskova

6-2 6-3#50Caty McNally

6-1 6-4#4Jessica Pegula

6-1 6-3#84Yulia Putintseva

6-3 6-4#145Veronika Podrez

6-3 6-0#96Tatjana Maria

Anna Blinkova #114Russia1Marta Kostyuk #13Ukraine2

Player Profiles

Anna Blinkova

Marta Kostyuk

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 18.5

Under 9.5

Under 9.5

Marta Kostyuk

Marta Kostyuk

Marta Kostyuk -5.5

Marta Kostyuk 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Anna Blinkova (5.5) @ 2.10

Kostyuk, M 2-0 @ 1.36

Head-to-Head

Anna Blinkova

Marta Kostyuk