Katerina Siniakova vs Nikola Bartunkova: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Siniakova's deeper grass experience and recent straight-sets win over Zheng give her a slight edge, though Bartunkova's current grass form is strong.
- Siniakova career grass win rate 60% (42-28) vs Bartunkova 7-3 this season but only 7 career grass wins
- Siniakova last 5: 4-1 with wins over Zheng, Masarova, Zhu, Yuan; Bartunkova last 5: 3-2 with losses to Sabalenka, Vandewinkel
- Siniakova holds serve 63.1% on first, 44.7% on second; Bartunkova 67.8% first, 45% second but lower first-serve % (53.6%)
- Siniakova return points won 45% career vs Bartunkova 47%, but Siniakova break point convert 47.1% vs 49.4%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKaterina SiniakovaEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bartunkova's recent matches have been high-scoring, and both players' moderate serve stats suggest a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Siniakova last 5 matches average 20.8 total games; Bartunkova last 5 average 24.4
- Bartunkova's last 3 matches all went over 21.5 games (22, 31, 30)
- Both players have break point save rates around 54-55%, indicating potential for extended games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bartunkova's recent losses have been narrow, and even in defeat she is likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap against Siniakova.
- Bartunkova's last 5 losses: margins of 1, 1, 9, 7, 4 games (only one >3.5)
- Siniakova's last 5 wins: margins of 4, 6, 6, 6, 6 games (all >3.5)
- Bartunkova's competitive losses to top players (Sabalenka by 1 game) suggest she can keep it close
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonNikola Bartunkova +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set scores for both players hover around the 9.5 line, with a slight lean toward over given their balanced play.
- Siniakova's last 5 first sets: 6-4, 3-6, 2-6, 6-2, 6-4 (avg 9.4 games)
- Bartunkova's last 5 first sets: 6-4, 2-6, 6-1, 6-2, 4-6 (avg 9.0 games)
- Both players have similar first-set competitiveness in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bartunkova's second sets often extend beyond 9.5 games, and Siniakova's recent second sets also average near the line.
- Siniakova's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 (avg 9.6 games)
- Bartunkova's last 5 second sets: 3-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 (avg 10.4 games)
- Bartunkova's second sets tend to be tighter, with three of last five going over 9.5
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bartunkova's tendency to play three-setters (4 of last 5) and both players' moderate dominance make a deciding set likely.
- Bartunkova's last 5 matches: 4 went to three sets
- Siniakova's last 5 matches: 2 went to three sets
- Bartunkova deciding set win rate 60% career, Siniakova 53%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Siniakova's high first-set conversion rate and recent pattern of starting strong suggest she is slightly more likely to take the opener.
- Siniakova first-set win conversion 86% career, Bartunkova 88%
- Siniakova won first set in 4 of last 5 matches; Bartunkova won first set in 3 of last 5
- Siniakova's lighter opening match may give her a fresher start
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKaterina SiniakovaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Bartunkova's high double fault rate and Siniakova's moderate rate make over 7.5 double faults likely, especially in a three-set match.
- Siniakova double fault rate 6.1% (career 2788 DFs in 723 matches, ~3.9 per match)
- Bartunkova double fault rate 9.8% (career 1581 DFs in 248 matches, ~6.4 per match)
- Combined average ~10.3 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Market price1.85Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
On grass, both players' ace rates may be slightly elevated, pushing the combined total over 6.5 in a potentially extended match.
- Siniakova ace rate 3.1% (career 1394 aces in 723 matches, ~1.9 per match)
- Bartunkova ace rate 4.1% (career 657 aces in 248 matches, ~2.6 per match)
- Combined average ~4.5 aces per match, but grass surface may increase ace counts
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Katerina Siniakova #36Czechia0Nikola Bartunkova #46Czechia2

Player Profiles

Katerina Siniakova

Nikola Bartunkova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 22.5

Nikola Bartunkova +2.5

Over 7.5

Katerina Siniakova 2-1

Katerina Siniakova

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Katerina Siniakova

Nikola Bartunkova