Fajing Sun #262China00 – 2Braden Shick #331United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Recent match data shows both players frequently engage in close, extended contests, making over 21.5 games likely.

• Sun's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games; Shick's last 5 averaged 21.8.
• Both players have break-point save rates around 59%, indicating potential for extended games.
• Sun has played 3 three-set matches in his last 5, and Shick has played 2 three-setters in his last 5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Sun's ability to stay competitive in matches, even in losses, makes him likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap against Shick.

• Sun's recent losses have been competitive: 9-13 vs Ilagan, 4-12 vs Hara Friend, 12-14 vs De Jong.
• Shick's wins have often been by narrow margins: 14-11 vs Imamura, 17-16 vs Martin.
• Sun's return points won (41%) and break-point conversion (44%) suggest he can keep matches close.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of Shick's strong serve and Sun's competitiveness often leads to first sets with at least 10 games.

• Sun's last 5 first sets: 3, 2, 6, 6, 7 games won; Shick's last 5 first sets: 3, 6, 6, 2, 7 games won.
• Both players have similar return points won percentages (41%), suggesting breaks are possible but not frequent.
• Shick's first-serve dominance may lead to a tight set with few breaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Historical patterns suggest the second set is likely to be closely contested, pushing the total over 9.5 games.

• Sun's last 5 second sets: 6, 2, 6, 6, 2 games won; Shick's last 5 second sets: 4, 6, 6, 3, 6 games won.
• Both players have similar second-serve win rates (52% vs 51%), leading to potential breaks.
• In their recent matches, second sets have often been competitive even after a lopsided first set.