Raphael Collignon vs Arthur Fils: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Fils' superior ranking (23 vs 43), stronger recent form against higher-quality opponents, and slightly better serve/return structural edges on grass give him a clear advantage in this Bo5 first-round match.
- Fils career grass win% 62.5 (10-6) vs Collignon 62.5 (5-3), but Fils has more total grass wins and higher-level experience.
- Fils last 5 matches: 4-1 with wins over top-35 opponents; Collignon last 5: 3-2 with losses to Cerundolo (45) and Zverev (3).
- Fils holds a 71.2% first-serve win rate and 50.6% second-serve win rate, slightly better than Collignon's 71.5%/48.6% on serve.
- Fils has a 60.8% break-point save rate vs Collignon's 58.6%, and Fils' return points won (38%) is lower but against stronger opposition.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArthur FilsEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent first sets and their similar serve/return profiles point to a first set with at least 10 games.
- Collignon's last five first sets: 6-4, 6-7, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 (avg 9.8 games).
- Fils' last five first sets: 0-4 (ret.), 2-6, 6-3, 6-3, 7-6 (avg 8.6 games, excluding retirement).
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion, suggesting a tight opening set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' competitive recent form and the Bo5 format, a match exceeding 36.5 games is plausible if it goes at least four sets with tight scorelines.
- Collignon's last five matches averaged 22.6 games in Bo3; extrapolating to Bo5 suggests a longer match.
- Fils' recent matches include three-setters and tiebreaks, indicating competitive sets.
- Both players have tiebreak win rates around 60%, increasing the chance of extended sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 36.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Collignon's competitive recent form suggests he can keep the match close enough to cover a +5.5 game handicap even in a losing effort.
- Collignon's recent losses have been by narrow margins: 17-16 games vs Cerundolo, 14-12 vs Zverev.
- Fils' wins often come with comfortable but not blowout scorelines; his average games conceded per set is around 3.5.
- In Bo5, a +5.5 handicap covers a 3-1 loss with close sets.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostRaphael Collignon +5.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Fils' high first-set win conversion and recent trend of strong starts, combined with Collignon's recent first-set struggles against top-50 opponents, support Fils taking the opener.
- Fils first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating strong starts.
- Collignon's first-set win conversion is 89%, but his recent first sets include losses to Cerundolo and Zverev.
- Fils has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 completed matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonArthur FilsEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive stats and Collignon's ability to extend matches, combined with Fils' occasional lapses, make over 3.5 sets likely in this Bo5 encounter.
- Collignon's only recent Bo5 match went to five sets; he has a 51% deciding-set win rate.
- Fils has played multiple three-set matches recently, indicating he can be pushed.
- Both players have similar break-point save rates (around 60%), suggesting few breaks and more tight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and their strong serving on grass make a tiebreak in this match very likely.
- Collignon has a 60% career tiebreak win rate; Fils 61%.
- Collignon's last five matches include three tiebreaks; Fils' last five include four tiebreaks.
- Both players have strong serve stats and similar break-point save rates, leading to tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With two servers averaging over 6% ace rates on grass in a potential four-set match, the combined ace total is likely to surpass 21.5.
- Fils averages 6.5% ace rate; Collignon 6.2%.
- In a Bo5 match, total points played could exceed 200, leading to around 13+ aces per player.
- Both players have similar ace rates, and grass courts typically increase ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 21.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the expected length of the match and both players' double-fault rates, the total double faults are likely to exceed 8.5.
- Collignon has a 5.4% double-fault rate; Fils 4.2%.
- In a Bo5 match, total service points could be around 300, leading to ~16 double faults combined.
- Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and pressure situations in a Grand Slam can increase errors.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Raphael Collignon #43Belgium0Arthur Fils #23France3

Player Profiles

Raphael Collignon

Arthur Fils

Quick Take

Context

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Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils 3-1

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Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Raphael Collignon

Arthur Fils