Polina Kudermetova vs Liudmila Samsonova: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Samsonova's stronger serve and superior grass-court pedigree give her a clear edge, despite Kudermetova's better recent form against weaker opposition.
- Samsonova has a career grass win rate of 36-15 (70.6%) vs Kudermetova's 8-4 (66.7%), with a larger sample size.
- Samsonova's serve stats are superior: ace rate 6% vs 4.2%, first-serve win rate 68.2% vs 64.8%, and break-point save rate 57.1% vs 54.4%.
- Kudermetova's recent form (last 5 matches: 4-1) is better than Samsonova's (1-4), but Samsonova faced stronger opponents (avg rank 45 vs 158).
- H2H is 1-1, but Samsonova won their only grass meeting 6-4 6-1 in 2023.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLiudmila SamsonovaEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Both players' recent matches have been high-scoring, and their similar break-point stats point to a match with multiple breaks and extended games.
- Kudermetova's last 5 matches averaged 22.8 games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Samsonova's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 45-49%, suggesting competitive service games and potential breaks.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Kudermetova's competitive recent matches and Samsonova's inability to dominate consistently suggest Kudermetova will keep the match close enough to cover the handicap.
- Kudermetova's recent losses have been close: 4-6 6-4 6-1, 6-0 6-3, 6-3 6-3, with an average game differential of -5.3 in losses.
- Samsonova's recent wins have been by margins of 6-3 7-5, 6-4 6-3, 6-2 6-1, with an average game differential of +5.3 in wins.
- Kudermetova has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of her last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostPolina Kudermetova +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set trends for both players show a pattern of competitive, high-game opening sets, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Kudermetova's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Samsonova's last 5 first sets averaged 10.4 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion rates, indicating tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While the H2H second set was short, both players' recent second sets have been competitive, supporting a slight lean toward over 9.5 games.
- Kudermetova's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Samsonova's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- In their only grass H2H, the second set had 7 games, but current form suggests closer sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Samsonova's serve advantage and Kudermetova's recent slow starts make Samsonova the favorite to take the opening set.
- Samsonova's first-set win conversion rate is 85% career, and she won the first set in their only grass H2H.
- Kudermetova's first-set win conversion is 90%, but she has lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches.
- Samsonova's first-serve win rate (68.2%) is significantly higher than Kudermetova's (64.8%), crucial on grass.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLiudmila SamsonovaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in many three-set matches recently, and their similar deciding-set stats suggest this match is likely to go the distance.
- Kudermetova's last 5 matches: 4 went to three sets.
- Samsonova's last 5 matches: 3 went to three sets.
- Both players have deciding-set win rates around 53-57%, indicating they are competitive in extended matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have elevated double-fault rates, and the pressure of grass-court tennis is likely to push the total double faults over 7.5.
- Kudermetova has a high double-fault rate of 6.5%, averaging 3.2 double faults in her last 5 matches.
- Samsonova's double-fault rate is 5.2%, averaging 2.8 double faults in her last 5 matches.
- Combined average double faults in recent matches is 6.0, but pressure on grass can increase errors.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Grass courts amplify serve effectiveness, and both players have shown the ability to hit aces, making over 7.5 total aces a reasonable expectation.
- Samsonova averages 6% aces per serve, and in her last 5 matches she hit 4, 5, 3, 6, 2 aces (avg 4.0).
- Kudermetova averages 4.2% aces, and in her last 5 matches she hit 2, 3, 1, 4, 2 aces (avg 2.4).
- Combined average aces in their recent matches is 6.4, but grass tends to increase ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Polina Kudermetova #156Uzbekistan0Liudmila Samsonova #42Russia2

Player Profiles

Polina Kudermetova

Liudmila Samsonova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Polina Kudermetova +3.5

Polina Kudermetova 2-1

Liudmila Samsonova

Liudmila Samsonova

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Polina Kudermetova

Liudmila Samsonova